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Euro Stoxx 50 Index

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EUSTX50 trade ideas

EUSTOXX50 - Update / More signals for troubleWe have more signals todays indicating the selloff can soon accelerate in European equities. First of all please check my previous post on the link below Daily: - Chikou cross below Price candles - weak bearish signal - Price is flirting with Kijun Sen - If it breaks below, then the very important 3100 support becomes a resistance. - MACD is close to bearish cross 4 Hrs: - weak bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross kept valid as Price retested Kijun twice and turned down again. - Chikou Span is crossing below Price candles - DMI bearish cross and ADX started to increase, so this time it can be valid - present Kumo is very thin, no problem to break through 3100. If the breakdown happens, selling will accelerate.
FX:EUSTX50Short
by Kumowizard
EUSTOXX50 - Read the classic indicatorsDaily: As Price is very volatile, the longer term equilibrium (Senkou B line - Kumo bottom) is not really changing, stays ard 3050. In terms of Ichimoku signals it is very hard to read this volatile daily chart. There is too much noise as Tenkan is almost corssing bullish above Kijun, future Kumo components (Senkou lines) point up) but Chikou is about to cross bearish below Price candles. Still I can not think about European equities as bullish at all for the following reasons: - DMI is still bearish - Slow Stoch is about to give a firm bearish signal after Price couldn't break 3220 horizontal key resistance - Massive bearish MACD divergence and MACD is not far away from giving a bearish signal too - Increased/increasing volatility is not a sign of a bullis market. This kind of volatility spike happens usually at major top buildings. - Fundamentals: Greece-Syriza in focus -> EUR collapse fears -> ECB more unlikely to apply full sovereign QE program -> expected monetary stimulus which kept equity prices inflating may be off the table Real trouble and bear mkt would start below 2900. 4 Hrs: Weak bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross and weak bearish Chikou cross to happen? Price is close to short term equilibrium at 3100. Bearish acceleration could happen below the Kumo. Watch DMI too!
FX:EUSTX50Short
by Kumowizard
ESTOXX50 - Sell SetupDaily: 3300 resistance refused, Price is touching the short term trendline, which may be broken soon as both MACD and Slow Stoch is bearish now. 4 Hrs: Price down to Kumo and 100 WMA. A break below could bring further selling and then DMI will confirm with a bearish cross too. 1 Hr: Bearish now, with Price breaking below the Kumo, and Chikou Span below Price now. Needs one more confirmation sub 3235, then bearish momentum will accelerate further. Initial bearish corrective tgt is 3150. Stops have to be placed at 3275.
FX:EUSTX50Short
by Kumowizard
S&P & the EuroStoxx Wave "Problem"As given: stock markets tend to move synchronously & any downward adjustment is likely to occur together. One labelling solution as here on EuroStoxx is possible without compromising rules of overlap, wave 3 longest etc. makes wave 4 as a giant months long expanded flat (3-3-5). Not that it was much of a 'correction', it did break the support line. Most indices, 3 US majors: DJ30, Nas, S&P (lightly in the background here), FTSE, Nikkei etc. after end of August correction, all did a 'hockey stick' recovery. All are technically 'in' with an all time or multiyear highs, apart from Euro continent indices, Eurostoxx50, Dax, Ibex etc. (& the Nikkei) which means they either have a failed wave 5 (assuming true motive), or they have a little way to go to a significant top. The non-appearance of divergence in the RSI also supports this 'high yet to come'. All prior show at least some divergence, e.g recent top of (b). And for a (b) to be that high, almost always, to appropriate timescale, exceeded thereafter. Lets see how the ECB liquidity injection goes (though it is doubted as to whether this is 'real') And all that, & the tendency to synchronous movement gives me slight caution about calling a top in the US Majors. To be honest, looking over the weekend, in? Could very well be. US & other indices not perfectly together in terms of labels & waves. But, y'know ... should the enthusiasm cross the pond ...
FX:EUSTX50
by finitemonk
Estoxx50 - Is it a danger zone, or a support buy opportunity?On the daily chart Estoxx50 Index is getting a bit dangerous for Bulls. DMI, Slow Stoch, MACD all bearish, and most importantly Price has touched the uptrend and arrived to Kumo support. Tenkan/Kijun weak bearish, Chikou Span below Price candles too. However a trend exists until it clearly breaks, and until the trend is so strong bullish, we have to suppose that Bulls will try to do everything at this support level to protect it. Looking at multiple time frames, we can see critical days are ahead of this mkt: both 4 Hrs and 1 Hr is bearish, the counter trend is still intact. Watch if 1 Hr stays above previous low and prints a weak Tenkan/Kijun bullish cross at least. Price action today and tomorrow on the lower time frames will be very important to see if the Index can bottom out and turn up again, but still Bulls really need to do a lot more from here to push price above 3260 resistance level to stay in the game for longer. Same is true for the Bears if they want to get in power. As I marked on the daily chart, it is not enough just to push Price below the Kumo. They also have to break the previus key support at 3140 to reverse the trend, otherwise the attempt will fail.
FX:EUSTX50
by Kumowizard
9
ESTOXX50 - Extremely Bullish... and overboughtIn all aspects Eurostoxx50 Index is extremely bullish, while US mkts are not so much. Last daily candle is a huge Hanging Man (normally a good indication for short term trend exhaustion), daily Slow Stoch is overbought and started to point down, and watch 4 Hrs ADX, which is close to 50! ADX is a measure of trend's strength, but most of the time when it is so high, market starts a correction. How to play the correction? There are two ways: you either try to sell it in a spike ard 3220-3240, or you watch for the 4 Hrs Kijun line and sell the break below, which in line with daily Tenkan and horizontal line means a sell below 3175. In any case do not allocate more than 0,5 unit on this trade, as again, at the moment it is an initial counter trend trade, and we need to see more signals to be confident with building bigger shorts.
FX:EUSTX50
by Kumowizard
5
ESTOXX50-Show me the way to the next whiskeybar /love me 2 timesWhile the weakest chain is clearly the DAX Index, the broader European equity index actually somehow not yet that bearish. However I think this is a classic example what not to touch as a trend trader, until one day it looks like a buy and the next day seems rather a sell. All in all it is a consolidation, with flat and thin daily Kumo, confusing daily MACD, and also a super low ADX and choppy zig-zag DMI on the 4 Hrs. 4 Hrs Ichimoku is not giving any indications either, except one: leave it alone until it trades in the triangle, and in the range 3050-3100. My longer term bias is generally bearish for equities, so if anything, I would sell the tops or would buy more Put options for May maturity, but only a decisive break below 3000 could bring here a real and massive bearish reversal. Until we can decide, please enjoy: www.youtube.com
FX:EUSTX50
by Kumowizard
ESTOXX50 - BULLS BACK IN POWERI have to admit, I do not have too much "luck" trading equities this year. My timing is not very good, and my mind is too much influenced by non technical factors, which tend to block me from going long on equities by technical signals. Last sell round worked well on this index (not like on SP500 wichi can not drop in any circumstances), but now looks bullish again. The reason I do not mark this post as a Long recommendation is that I clearly do not see much upside on this move. I rather have the feeling, that 3150-60 will stop bulls again. There are some negative divergences both on Daily and 4 Hrs time frames. On the daily price is floating in a pretty quickly tightenning ascending triangle. The next real heavy move will take place whenever price breaks out of this. Will it bring a correction and the end of the multi year bull mkt, or will it be the start of another 10 % rally? Hard to decide. But as I said at the beginning of this post, I am always a bit afraid of longs, so I will probably rather buy Long Put options if we reach 3150 level.
FX:EUSTX50
by Kumowizard
ESTOXX50 - Long term bearish sideaway, short term floor hereNext one which behaved very well. Please see post and reco: All the negative divergences stopped the bulls, and caused another wave of correction. Puts and outright shorts (if you sold on that spike or in the small breakdown) worked pretty well, but since these levels ard 3050 are still very supportive for short term, I suggest to close bearish positions for some time now. However going long I do not think is a good risk reward. Looking at daily chart: DMI bearish, MACD negative divergence still persist, Slow Stoch is down (still not oversold), but px arrived to Kijun and close to long term trend and the Kumo. So it has some chance to pop up from here again, however the future Kumo and the position of the Chikou Span on the daily chart suggests it will still stay choppy with higher volatility, and move sideaway in a wide range for next few weeks. (might be good for daytraders, not so good for me as a trend trader). Levels to watch: 3120 - 3150 for possible top again (Strong resistence), 3020 - 3050 for the floor (strong support). If it closes below 3000, then it will be an armageddon for the Bulls. One more note here: As you see on 4 Hrs chart Kumo and Kijun resistence now is ard 3100. One may ask why I did not recommend a short from there. Well Ichimoku is a trend following system, so in case it will really meet my expectation and moves sideaway, these levels will be easy to cross in both direction. What I recommend is to set your px alerts at 3100-3110, and start looking at px action and plan the strategy when we reach it.
FX:EUSTX50
by Kumowizard