Downward Pressure on the European Automotive Sector• European Stock Exchange: EuroStoxx50 is up 0.4% at the open, and is considered to have failed to reach its optimal buy point of 4,400 points. Meanwhile, the IBEX35 has stagnated at 0.1%. European indices as a whole have advanced +2.5% since Monday.
• Debt market: The US 10-year bond is at 3.9% and the German 10-year bond is above 2.25%, while Spanish bonds are at 3.08%.
• Carry Trade: T raders have returned to the carry trade with the Japanese yen and the Bank of Japan's policies could influence the profitability of these operations.
• European Automotive Industry: T he transition to electric vehicles and the entire GreenDeal faces several challenges in the sector related to high cost and lack of local infrastructure. The EV market share has contracted from 16% in 2015 to 13% in 2023, so it looks like a clear demand reduction trend. Additionally we can count on supply problems and competition with Chinese manufacturers are affecting European production. This is being reflected in the Stoxx Europe 600 Automobiles & Parts, which has fallen by 6% so far this year. In contrast, luxury brands such as Ferrari have increased their shares by 25%.
• Automobile Company Indices: European leaders in the sector are in EURO STOXX 50 and STOXX Europe 600 Automobiles & Parts.
- Ferrari (RACE): S&P 500, FTSE MIB.
- Renault (RNO) and Stellantis (STLA): CAC 40.
- BMW (BMW) and Mercedes-Benz (MBG): DAX.
• Outlook: The recovery of the European automotive industry could take a decade due to the current pressure, with factors complicating its recovery to pre-crisis levels.
Looking at the DAX chart, it has currently recovered almost +8% since August 5. This tells us that the Fed's policies are reflecting their effects on all European indices to a greater or lesser extent. But do not discount the risk of major automotive and industrial companies being affected by the commodity and technology wars with the East. At the moment, the index's support zone is at 17,419 points, with the current high at 18,913 points. At the moment the strongest trading zone is 18,479 points, slightly above the trading zone. RSI is slightly above the middle zone so it could be representing an increase of long positions in the index. If the index exceeds the 18,479 checkpoint zone, we will see a new attempt to pierce prices in the highs zone.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
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GER40 trade ideas
Key Levels Crucial for GER30 Bullish TrendHello Everyone,
The GER30 index is experiencing a steady rise and is expected to maintain its bullish trend, provided that the 1-year strong resistance point at 18,527.129 can act as a support level in the future. A key indicator to watch is the 1-month pivot point (PP) acting as support, rather than resistance as it has been. This situation is prompting sellers to enter the market despite the solid bullish trajectory.
TradeWithTheTrend3344
$DAX Buys in the making!Buys from H1 FVG
-----------------------
1. Yesterday's High overlaps with FVG
2. FVA of BOS lies within the same area
3. perfect OLOD ie FVG + FVA fill
4. H4 FVG
5. low of Asian session coincides with FVA on 15 min + MSS
-------------------------------------
FVA fair value Area
OLOD- overlapping Line of defense.
DAX Resistance Ahead! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
DAX keeps growing
Now and the index is
Locally overbought so
After it hits the horizontal
Resistance of 18,046 we
Will be expecting a
Local bearish correction
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Does the DAX index cross its important resistance?According to the resistance in the range of 17944 After the failure of this zone, we can expect the price to rise to the range of 18122 and in case of strength, the range of 18272 Otherwise, after breaking the range of 17768, we can expect the price to drop to the range of 17576.
Could GER40 reverse from hereDAX40 is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 17,957.60
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 18,221.19
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 17,659.05
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
NOTE: These charts use the ‘Pro Trading Tools’ available on the SpreadEx trading platform. To use them, log in to your SpreadEx Financials Account and click ‘Technical’ from the menu on any chart.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP over 50 periods
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level (above or below)
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40 has entered a bearish trend and is currently in an impulsive phase, with the price dropping to 17,726, slightly below the VWAP of 17,988. The support level has been lowered to 17,131, while resistance has adjusted upward to 18,845. The RSI has risen to 41, indicating a moderate bearish momentum compared to the previous analysis.
UK 100 remains in a bearish trend, continuing in its impulsive phase, with the price now at 8,202, slightly above the VWAP of 8,179. The support level is set at 7,999, and resistance has moved up to 8,360. The RSI has stabilised at 50, reflecting a neutral momentum.
Wall Street continues to show a bullish trend but has entered a corrective phase, with the price declining to 39,532, just below the VWAP of 39,930. This correction may soon transition into a bearish trend if the downward movement continues. The support level is now at 38,636, while resistance has increased to 41,223. The RSI has dropped to 46, signalling a shift towards bearish momentum.
Brent Crude has moved into a bearish trend and is currently in a corrective phase, with the price slightly increasing to 79.94, now just above the VWAP of 79.40. Support has been adjusted downward to 75.95, while resistance has climbed to 82.84. The RSI is at 48, indicating a balance between bullish and bearish pressures.
Gold is showing a neutral trend and is in a consolidation phase, with the price increasing to 2,442, above the VWAP of 2,410. Support has been lowered to 2,361, while resistance has risen to 2,460. The RSI stands at 58, suggesting the momentum is slightly leaning towards the bullish side.
EUR/USD continues in a bullish trend and remains in an impulsive phase, with the price rising to 1.0927, just above the VWAP of 1.0879. Support has adjusted to 1.0785, while resistance has been slightly increased to 1.0974. The RSI has reached 59, indicating continued strong bullish momentum.
GBP/USD has shifted to a bearish trend and is now in an impulsive phase, with the price decreasing to 1.2763, below the VWAP of 1.2818. Support is now higher at 1.2666, and resistance has been adjusted downward to 1.2971. The RSI has decreased to 45, reflecting weakening bullish momentum.
USD/JPY is in a bearish trend, continuing in an impulsive phase, with the price falling significantly to 147.49, now below the VWAP of 150.63. Support has been adjusted upward to 142.14, while resistance has increased to 159.11. The RSI has dropped sharply to 32, indicating a strong bearish momentum.
Short DAX for 8 x r Price trading into 50% on previous swing after price raided previous days high and formed a ivfvg. Price traded back into the balanced price range. Set st to recent high will move to break even at 2 r.
#GER30 bearish continuation moveAfter an impulsive bearish move in the GER30 last week, the price is now forming a bullish corrective move and a rising wedge pattern, which typically has a bearish bias.
Additionally, the price has reached the 1-hour 200 EMA, which could act as dynamic resistance. There's also a bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator on this timeframe.
These factors together suggest a bearish outlook.
Potential bullish rise?DAX40 has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 17,627.71
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 17,347.26
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 17,964.37
Why we like it:
A pullback resistance level aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Will the German stock market remain bullish? The Dex index can continue to rise up to the range of 17944. If this resistance zone is broken, we can expect the price to rise up to the range of 18122 and 18272. Otherwise, with the failure of the 17576 area, we can expect this index to drop to the 17361 range.
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DAX40 Bearish Rising WedgeRising zigzag, line at 17,600.
If broken, supports are way lower: 17,000; 16,500 and 15,800
GERMANY 30 (DE30EUR): Classic Bullish SetupDE30 fell to a significant horizontal support level on Monday before rebounding and creating a rising triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart.
The triangle's neckline is base on an intraday gap down.
Keep a close eye on the highlighted blue zone, which serves as a narrowing buy zone supported by a trend line and a broken neckline.
I anticipate a bullish movement to follow.
The next resistance level to watch for is at 18,089.
buy to sell set-upGer30
Price formed an all-time high at 18 921. It must be noted that the swing responsible for this high has been bridged by price recently and formed a new swing low at 17 024. Now we focus on the price within this mentioned price range looking for selling opportunities targeting or new formed low. It have a supply zone at 18 584 which is to be used as our area of interest as it is this price level that will validate our set-up and a break and close above this area will invalidate out trade. Most importantly price has to return to it within 30 days for us to consider taking the sell.
For price to reach this level we have to technical zones which we can’t rule out which are old swing low areas, respectively; 17 945 and 18 175 which much more expected of price to respect as it recently formed and it in more closer to our inner 4hr/1hr supply zone targeting the newly formed swing low at 17 024.
We have x2 set-ups
-The retest of the broken old swing and
-the retest of the supply zone
Dax ABCDThe Dax has moved from a Base - Drop to a Base . This Base is in the form of an Ascending Triangle.
Drop + Ascending Triangle = Continuation to downside.
An ABCD move, which is completed with a final Drop.
How Far ? 16400 is possible to the Demand Zone.
GER30 DOWNTREND1.Ger30 has been on a downtrend for some time.
2.The trend is still continuing with the downward move since a rising triangle has been formed.
3.The triangle broke out of the major condolidation, signaling a continuation with the downtrend.
4.Entry and Exit points as indicated.
GER40 - In Bullish TrendGER40 is in bullish trend after making a bullish divergence @ 1H timeframe. It is also complimenting the trend line. Taken an instant entry.
The Signal is:
EP: 17592
SL: 17257.90
TP: 17926.1
RR: 0.5%
