2024-06-13 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes pulled-back as expected and closed mostly where they opened the us session. Dax showed strong weakness again with a reversal to new lows. Tomorrow another uber bullish day at least for sp500 and nasdaq is expected, since bulls want to close this week at the highs, creating another big buy signal going into next week. Nasdaq closing the week above 20000 would be something.
Commodities continued with their down trends. Oil confirmed the reversal at the upper bear channel and Gold also sold off for 30 points but found support at the 2320 area again. More sideways movement expected here.
dax
comment: Broad bear channel lives on. Every day, same story, bulls try to reverse it and bears just relentlessly selling every rip. Makes you wonder how many bulls will continue to do, before they give up. It’s fitting, that we almost exactly closed where the big bull trend line from January and the lower expanding triangle trend line crossed. Here it’s big decision time for the next impulse. Bears are in their 4th red week and still have not dropped below the big bull trend week from early May. Something you do not see that much on a chart.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18000 - 18700
bull case: Absolutely nothing for the bulls today. They had their try yesterday and fumbled the ball again big time. Bears just crushed them right from EU open to close 350 points lower. They only thing I have for the bulls is the big bull trend line we are at. If they can not stay above it, this bull trend is finally over. So it’s do or die for bulls over the next days. If they can produce buying pressure again, it would be fitting that this week closes as a red doji right under 18477ish.
Invalidation is below 18200.
bear case: Bears crushed the bulls again today. They had an amazing setup to break above the expanding triangle and go for the highs again but I think this market is done with the bullishness and we have seen the last of 18000, once we drop below again. More probable is that this market moves sideways for many more weeks between 18000 - 19000 before a catalyst turns everyone and their dog bearish again. Bears need to drop below 18200 with force.
Invalidation is above 18660.
short term: I would not long anything until bulls trade back above the 1h ema again but shorting down here is suicide as well, unless bears just melt through 18200. Most likely outcome tomorrow is sideways for dax between 18240 - 18450.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Just short anywhere and go away. Pure weakness since Globex and EU open just sold everything. The open price was the high of the eu session, to the tick. Happens handful of times a year.
