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HSI TREND ANALYSIS UNTIL THE END OF DECEMBER 2021========================== ====== DISCLAIMER ========== ============================= This chart and trend analysis is MERELY an OPINION, not the PROFESSIONAL ADVISE This analysis does not provide any trading suggestion and ask for selling and buying, please be responsible for your own investment behaviour And we do not be responsible for your own loss Also, the future might change anytime and everything won't go as what we predicted, so please accept this analysis as an entertainment, don't be serious about fail prediction or wrong concept and prediction. Thank you. ========================= Analysis Start (GOOGLE TRANSLATE) ========================= The reason why the Hang Seng market continues to set new lows this week is because the market is suspected of misrepresenting that China will ban Internet brokers and provide offshore transactions to mainland customers. The essence is only to restrict "fake foreign investment". Although they are all supervising cross-border funding practices, they are limited. Objects and content are worlds apart, and China's concept stocks are gradually stabilizing The other reason is that, The China Securities Regulatory Commission again responded to the US audit supervision. The China Securities Regulatory Commission stated that the relevant regulatory agencies of China and the United States are currently negotiating on the cooperation of audit supervision and have made some positive progress. The China Securities Regulatory Commission adheres to an open and cooperative attitude, respects the PCAOB (Accounting Oversight Board of Public Companies of the United States) for fulfilling its responsibility to monitor the quality of auditors' practice, and believes that through international cooperation, the PCAOB's inspection and investigation of Chinese accounting firms registered in the United States will be resolved , Is an internationally accepted practice. The Fed’s tightening of monetary policy and concerns about the Omicron variant virus continue to plague the market. Investors are worried about the economic recovery; US stocks settled yesterday on the "Four Witch Days" (that is, the third Friday of March, June, September, and December, individual stock futures, individual stocks) (Options, index futures, index options settlement days, the stock market fluctuates abnormally), the Dow once fell 613 points, and then the decline narrowed; the Nasdaq repeated. =========================== OUR PRESPECTIVE =========================== The following chart is depend on WEEK TRENDING As we observed that, even the week trending appeared the oversold light purple candle, but it is not creating bottom of market (the green bar and the grey bar, green colour means bottom) And also, it has reached the bottom of Fibonacci zone and touched the important resistance point. If the week trend do not break through the bottom around 23150, then it may has a rebounce in future, but if it break through 23150, then the next low point will be at 21960 suppport line for week trend. However, the entire HSI trend still in downtrend pattern, so each time of up trend might consider as a rebounce but not a formally uptrend. Now we look into day trend. We may see that the oversold candle appeared again at the end of week. So will the down trend start again? We may find that the 23271 support line maybe still available, and as long as the trend did not go below 23271, IT MIGHT GO SIDEWAY RETRACEMENT FOR A WHILE TO SEEK A CHANCE TO REBOUNCE AGAIN. BUT, IF THE 23271 SUPPORT FAILED, THEN THE NEXT SUPPORT LINE FOR DAY TREND WILL BE AT 22696. IF THE TREND START TO GO DOWN AND BELOW 23000, THEN YOU HAVE TO BE CAREFUL FOR THE FURTHER DOWN TREND IN FUTURE. ======================= At last, all the prediction above IS MERELY AN OPNION, and probably won't go as we predicted, so please jsut accept all this prediction as a entertainment . Hope all of you may gain more and more profit in Stock market, good luck
TVC:HSI
by lsking0425
3
HSI market prediction for 13 to 17 December 2021========================== ====== DISCLAIMER ========== ============================= This chart and trend analysis is MERELY an OPINION, not the PROFESSIONAL ADVISE This analysis does not provide any trading suggestion and ask for selling and buying, please be responsible for your own investment behaviour And we do not be responsible for your own loss Also, the future might change anytime and everything won't go as what we predicted, so please accept this analysis as an entertainment, don't be serious about fail prediction or wrong concept and prediction. Thank you. ========================= Analysis Start ========================= We want to talk about current market conditions and forecasts for the next week (13-17 December). (Google translated) From the current point of view, the rebound from 30/12/21 has reached 4.96% volatility, so profit-taking, that is, short-term adjustment, may be carried out at present. And we use a special method to calculate that there will be a change date in the next 17 December 2021 (Friday). Assuming that this calculation is correct, then we propose two hypotheses about future trends based on this possibility: The first point is that the overall market will undergo a short-term adjustment of nearly 1.90% to 2.10%. As long as the index does not break through 23800, then the second phase of the upward trend may begin. So will the market adjustment continue until 17 December 2021, or will the second wave of upward trend end in 17 December 2021? We will continue to observe and update the data to inform you. The second point is that the market will build the bottom of W. In order to make the later rise more powerful, a substantial adjustment will be made, and there will be a second bottom on 17 December 2021. Then a real upward trend will begin. However, just like the information we shared before, it is expected that there will be a head and shoulders bottom before 24 January 2022, and then the upward trend will begin. 08 June 2018 to 04 Jan 2019 28 June 2021 to 24 January 2022 ---------------------------------------------- For the future trend, I found some intresting idea again, and i want to share with you all. In Stock market, you may know a wisdom is that History always repeat From 08 June 2018 to 04 Jan 2019, HSI market experience a down trend at least 210days, four down trend, and a head and shoulder trend at low place, then start a new uptrend. If you compare to the HSI trend when start from 28 June 2021, you will find that two period of trend are almost same. So, the clue is that, if the history will really happen repeatedly, it means that start from next week would probably has a small rebounce first. Then test the bottom resistance again, at least two time, then start a uptrend next year January 2022. This is our forecast for the next week (13-17 December), but please remember that the market is changing from time to time, and the forecast is not necessarily accurate. Therefore, we must also pay attention to market news and stock market changes at any time. ======================= At last, all the prediction above IS MERELY AN OPNION, and probably won't go as we predicted, so please jsut accept all this prediction as a entertainment . Hope all of you may gain more and more profit in Stock market, good luck
TVC:HSI
by lsking0425
HANG SENG INDEX trend at the begining of DEC (06 dec to 10 dec)========================== ====== DISCLAIMER ========== ============================= This chart and trend analysis is MERELY an OPINION, not the PROFESSIONAL ADVISE This analysis does not provide any trading suggestion and ask for selling and buying, please be responsible for your own investment behaviour And we do not be responsible for your own loss Also, the future might change anytime and everything won't go as what we predicted, so please accept this analysis as an entertainment, don't be serious about fail prediction or wrong concept and prediction. Thank you. ========================= Analysis Start ========================= Greetings, I think lot of people have bought on dips and sold on rallies this three days. Although it worth to take some risk to do some trade, but i still not recommend to hold a lot of stock at this moment. Since the Omicron Virus has been found in 29 countries around the world, most of the investor still fear about it, therefore a lot of panic sold happened inthis week. But i believe that after the Covid-19 Pandemic, people will at least adapt to this situation within two weeks, before Christmas holiday. And i have also shared a news for China,Hong Kong and America as below: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Chinese technology stocks were weak, with Alibaba (09988) US stocks and Tencent (00700) ADR lower than Hong Kong's closing price. Ali closed at 122.6 yuan yesterday, a drop of 60% from the historical high of 317.14 yuan, and its market value has evaporated by more than 4 trillion yuan. The recent decline in technology stocks was firstly related to the mainland’s ban on VIE’s overseas listing. Although the China Securities Regulatory Commission later denied it, it did not address market concerns. Then the US Securities Regulatory Commission (SEC) passed an amendment this morning to confirm implementation. The "Foreign Company Accountability Act (HFCAA)" passed in 2020, foreign companies listed in the United States may be delisted if they do not comply with the information disclosure requirements of the U.S. regulatory agencies. In addition, China Aoyuan (03883) was required to repay the total principal amount of approximately US$651.2 million in financing, but failed to reach an agreement with the creditors, which caused further concerns about the default of domestic housing. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Therefore, 06 Dec to 10 Dec will probably go sideway retracement for short period since the panic sell and profit taking still continue this week, and PROBABLY will continue until next week. A resistance around 23800, if only the trend and break through it and stand still next week, then the trend will have chance to rebounce until 24700, a second resistance for HSI . ======================= Our suggestion to HSI ======================= Might seek of chance to buy some dips, but if the trend break through 23300, should leave the market and observe it for a short period, because IF THE SELL PRESSURE IS STRONG, WILL PROBABLY USE BREAKING THE BOTTOM STRATEGIC TO SCARE OUT THE UNSTABLE RETAIL INVESTORS, IN ORDER TO CREATE A CHANCE TO RISE THE TREND. The breaking bottom strategy will probably break until 23000 if it happened. But we predict it might oscillae around 23750 to 23300 for a while. ====================================== At last, all the prediction above IS MERELY AN OPNION, and probably won't go as we predicted, so please jsut accept all this prediction as a entertainment . Hope all of you may gain more and more profit in Stock market, good luck
TVC:HSI
by lsking0425
5
The Ending of an Era - HSIOriginal Chart This is Based Off 2018 update Original Trade Strategy Around This Chart Everything should be self explanatory in the chart. Of course - this will work until it doesn't, but since the 1990, the HSI index hitting its upper resistance line has nailed every major global market top within a very short timeframe. You can see how perfect this has timed markets with the correlation to the SPX index in the lower chart. Hypothetically speaking, when you would hit the upper resistance line, you would short emerging markets to hedge against whatever is about to happen. Then when this hits the lower resistance line, you would go long major market indexes until you arrive back at the upper resistance line (SPX, etc). 2022 - End of an Era? As most can see, this chart is a very very long narrowing wedge / channel. The volatility between drawdowns and rises was far greater the further back you go, and the drawdowns have all been proportionally smaller as we narrow within the channel bouncing off top and bottom resistance (and sometimes in between). With that said, narrowing channels like this indicate increasing fragility of the trend, and potentially suppressed volatility. Eventually, something has to give, and this will break the long term pattern. I believe we're close to that point, and that's not a good sign for asian markets. I don't know exactly what would happen if this breaks to the downside, but I don't think it would be pretty. Stable systems such as this have a way of becoming extremely chaotic when the stability breaks. Chaotic markets = drawdowns / crashes, and given the current state of Chinese markets and politics, this shouldn't be too surprising that it could be possible. The ongoing Chinese real estate crisis is just getting going, and the party has so far remained committed towards deflating their real estate bubble. Fundamentally, Hong Kong is just as bad if not worse than China from a real estate speculation / valuation perspective, yet there are additional problems in HK with people fleeing the territory due to the Chinese takeover following the 2018 protests. Demographics are strongly against this market, valuations are strongly against this market, and the current economics of this look rather dire without any major positive windows into future development / growth. From a technical perspective, this is also far weaker than every other time it's hit the bottom resistance line. Note that every other instance we hit the lower resistance line, we also were hitting the lower monthly bollinger band at the same time. Not included within the chart, but momentum indicators also are showing a lot of negative divergences. You can see this from simply looking at the chart and noting the covid recovery bounce has been far weaker than every other post-lower boundary recovery bounce. We didn't even make it up to the middle resistance line before retesting. My guess and view is that this won't break easily, but it will break dramatically. I think there is a good chance we see another rally here back towards one of the resistance lines, but after that, momentum will have really worn off. I also think we could chop around the lower resistance for a while, but ultimately, we are likely going to break down here on a secular basis. Maybe Kyle Bass will actually be validated after being wrong for 10+ years (except he's probably already been stopped out of all his poorly timed trades)?
TVC:HSIShort
by GTStockmaster
22
HANG SENG one of very rare indexes which is not a bubble. Hong Kong - Hang Seng is in a falling trend since long ago. This shows that investors over time have sold at lower prices to get out of the index, and indicates negative development for the market. An inverse head and shoulders formation is under development. A decisive break of the resistance at 26051, ideally with an increase in volume, signals a further rise. The index longterm bullish forecast for the next one year is 33500 . The index is overall assessed as technically oversold. ideally expect medium long term growth. on the other hand if things went sought for China expect this to hit 20,000 before any reversal. Important note: these are my personal thoughts and they can be wrong. I'm not a financial advisor. but if you are willing to buy this, expect 50% growth on ur investment for the next 12 months from now. let me know about ur thoughts will it go back up ?
TVC:HSILong
by SabahEquityResearch
2
Hang Seng.....First legs of an impulse?Hello Traders, HS made a low on October 5,at 23681.44 and start a 5-up to 26234. This could be a wave 1 and the following correction a wave 2 or a part of wave 2! So, from this view, the „Mob“-level is at the low 23681. A break of this low will open the door to 211xx area! But if HS is able to rise, in an impulsive move, above 26234 it has the chance to extend to 28892 at minimum. At this level, it could touch the range of the wave b/x high at 29394! A decline below 24259-24206 on a daily close will eliminate this count! After a two-years lasting bear market, HS has a long way to go, to return into a bull market. Right now, the odds are not given. So any counter trend move to the upside is one in a bear market! Watch this! Have a great week.... Ruebennase Feel free to ask or comment! Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
TVC:HSI
by ruebennase
2