AEX: XMAS rally to the downside? I'm bearish AEX end of year.
Big boys have to take profit and square their positions end of year.
Today is option expiry day.
After today i expect AEX to decline.
NTH25 trade ideas
AEX stijgingOp de AEX chart is de grafiek te zien op een 15m TF. Verwacht de AEX nog 1 terugval naar 541.2 waarna een stijging richting de top ofwel eindejaarsrally á 558+.
Looking for more correction in AEX (Dutch Index)AEX made higher highs since September.
Mid November it made a top and turned downwards.
Looking to seel it when it breaks out of the upwards channel.
AEX - Broadening topAEX looks like a broadening top. I prefer some pullback and gapcloses around 537 and 533.
AEXIdea: price is above pivot H3, expecting a pullback to pivot L3 @ 525.3. Expecting Fibonacci resistance on the way down.
DISCLAIMER:
This is where I practice ideas and work on my trading techniques. Please note I am only providing my own trading information for insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal. Trade at your own risk.
Downside for the AEX (dutch 25 biggest stocks)Lets wait for level 495/500 to hit before buying any stocks correlated to the AEX.
Dutch AEX index set to decline further in coming week?AEX index shows possibly the start of the C-wave down starting a topping period. -- AEX index staat mogelijk aan de vooravond van een daling van enkele dagen/weken. Ik zie dit als de start van een langere termijn top formatie.
Dutch AEX Likely To Start A New Bull Market Now.The Chart of the dutch AEX is showing a clear brake of a major multi-year down trendline. In yesterdays Dutch election 81% of Dutch citizens voted against populism and for the European Union as voters said asked in exit polls.
After the BREXIT the overall sentiment for European Stockmarkets had been mostly bearish.
After the BREXIT fears are mounting that more European Countries might leave the EU now for 9 month. Those fears might be overdone. Same time the fundamentals in Europe showing strong signs of recovery. The AEX chart is supporting also a more optimistic view.
Nehterland ATX: Trump Backfires European Far Right Wing PartiesIf you see this chart: Do you believe this is Netherlands AEX? The Stockmarket Index of a country, where most Traders expect the victor of the far right and anti islam party PVV from Geert Wilders?
The PVV follows and copy the politics of Donald Trump and is in favour for Vladimir Putin also.
Fact´s are, right now, clear: Dutch Voters getting more and more scared about any far right poltics and European voters in general are right now more sceptic about parties based on anti-Islam and anti-EU/Euro only. This is a tremendous change within a few weeks only starting on Trumps Inauguration Day on January 20th. Keep your attention now to the facts, that the Dutch election is coming soon and that a lot of Pro´s betting against the Euro and European Government Bonds still because they have no clue about this quick change on voters mind - until now. Maybe this might change again - than we need to follow this.
Pro´s Betting On Victories Of Far Right Wing Parties.This Chart is self explaining. A fews days only after Donald Trumps Inauguration Netherlands opinion polls showing Geert Wilders opproval rates to fall sharply. Same time Netherlands Stockmarket Index AEX starts rising - and look how string this rise is until today.
If you read same time anglo-american investors opinion than the message is clear: Short the Euro, short Europe and especially short French government bonds.
Any Trader knows that finally only one side can be right. If the polls might change again trader needs to follow this also like any victory of Geert Wilders PVV to take over Power in the Netherlands. But right now there is a huge gap in-between the facts changed in the last three weeks and the overall market view or sentiment. To know this keeps you ahead of the crowd. To make it clear and please get the point: It is not our issue to predict any result of any election. What we need to focus on is how the majority of traders is betting on and if how the facts are.
AEX Possible correctionWe hit a potential top and if no new information arises then this should be the more probable outcome in my opinion at the moment .. or something ike it
Update AEX: Took out the high so all bets are offThis a follow up in this forecast:
First downside target met, but then AEX shot up and took out the high, so previous analysis is not valid anymore.
Wait and see priceaction beginning of next week before jumping conclusions.
Forecast AEX: lower lowsIf AEX is not capable to make a higher high this week, we might see a correction towards 490 and later maybe 485.
AEX - Breakout- LongThe price has broke the resistance of the bullish flag pattern. The trend will probably continue.
First target is 0.618. The 0.618 fib. extension is also in line with the resistancezone 505~510.
AEX Forecast for next week(s)Coming weeks I expect a move to the upside since liquidity is resting above the market
AEX on Friday 27th of Jan _ projection for next week Buy higher and sell higher: who dares?
It was an interesting week where the bulls are in extreme control. A lot of shorts has been scared for taking positions, and thus volume is going lower and lower.
TradingEcology is waiting on negative divergence signals on daily timeframe before any short position would be considered. As displayed in the hourly timeframe it is just the other side of the story, as you can detect some positive divergence. It is likely to recorded an up wave towards point D, if the supportzone around 482 will hold. As a first harmo on 482,30 would be a good try to go long under oversold condition, TradingEccology will be a first mover to play on the breakout of 490 (stop squeeze area).
At this moment eur/usd is influencing our beliefs about markets since it is on a major level. For coming days TradingEcology is flexible but long minded to the eur/usd however we detect oppurtunities to short from higher level towards parity.
Those shifts will influence the wave structure of the AEX.
As explained in our year report 2017 . The bull market has some time to take price higher.
Best to your trading!
TradingEcology
To trade natural patterns unnaturally perfect
AEX _ start of the week on Dutch-Index (mon 23th of January2017)However oil price are strong backed by cutting crude production and individual stocks are outperforming concencus it is likely to record a high on Monday 23th of January at 488,8 point in AEX.
If 488,80 harmo will coincide with overbought condition and a valid short in 2h timeframe, it is likely to sell to point D. However in mid of this week Gann points are stronger, to look for 'opp. into strengths.
Overall the market is in a strong uptrend, with sideway behaviour to 'square out price range expension from the Trump rally. TradingEcology does expect a strong rise towards April/March to roughly 530. Our perception to correction in price are very flexibly minded, though timecorrection is an unnatural breather for higher prices in future.
In the yearly hot projection report you can find the exact price&time relations.
Best to your trading!
