DXY to 80? ...Tariffs the First Domino in a Multi-Year Collapse?This is a pure technical walkthrough of the U.S. Dollar Index—no fluff, no indicators, no fundamentals. Just market structure, smart money, and liquidity concepts.
Back on January 14th , I posted about a potential 20%+ drop in the DXY — you can view it here . This video builds on that thesis and walks you through the full technical story from 1986 to today , including accumulation cycles, yearly trap zones, and my long-term target of 80. Am I crazy? Maybe. Let's see if I can convince you to be crazy too 😜
There is a video breakdown above, and a written breakdown below.
Here are timestamps if you want to jump around the video:
00:00 – The Case for $80: Not as Crazy as It Sounds
02:30 – The 0.786 Curse: Why the Dollar Keeps Faking Out
06:15 – How Smart Money Really Moves: The 4-Phase Playbook
12:30 – The Trap Is Set: Yearly Highs as Liquidity Bait
20:00 – Inside the Mind of the Market: 2010–2025 Unpacked
25:00 – The Bear Channel No One’s Talking About
36:00 – The First Domino: Is the Dollar’s Slide Just Beginning?
👇 If you're a visual learner, scroll down—each chart tells part of the story.
Chart: Monthly View – Three Highs, .786 Retraces, and Trendline Breaks
History doesn’t repeat, but it sure rhymes.
Each major DXY rally has formed a sequence of three swing highs right after a break of trendline structure. In both instances, price retraced to the .786 level on the yearly closes—an often overlooked fib level that institutional players respect.
We’re now sitting at a high again. You’ll notice price has already reversed from that zone. That doesn’t guarantee a collapse, but when we line it up with other confluences (next charts), the probability of a deeper markdown becomes hard to ignore.
I'd also like to note that all of the highlighted moves, are 2-3 year trend runs. Which means if we are bearish, this could be the exact start of a 2-3 bear market.
Market Phases Since 1986
This chart illustrates how DXY has moved through repeating cycles of:
🟡 Accumulation: Smart money building positions quietly.
🔵 Markup: Price accelerates with buy orders + media hype.
🟣 Distribution: Smart money sells to latecomers.
🔴 Markdown: Public panic → smart money reloads.
If we are indeed entering another markdown phase, this would align perfectly with the pattern seen over the past 40 years.
You’ll also notice the "Point of Control" (POC) zones—volume-based magnets that price often returns to. These spots often act as the origin of the move, and as such, they make for strong targets and areas of interest.
Liquidity Zones and Stop Loss Traps
This is where it gets juicy.
The majority of breakout traders placed long entries at the blue lines—above swing highs, thinking resistance was broken. But what’s under those highs? Stop loss clusters.
Institutions use these areas as liquidity harvests.
Several key levels are marked as “OPEN” in this chart, meaning price has yet to return to sweep those orders. That’s why I’m expecting price to begin seeking out that liquidity over the coming months.
There's also an imbalance gap (thin price action) around the 85–86 zone. If price falls into that trap door, there’s nothing to stop it until the 80s.
The 2025 Outlook
Here’s how I’m approaching this year:
✅ Bearish bias under 105
🎯 Targets at 100, 95, and 90
🚪 Trap door under 86 if volume is thin
Price is currently stuck under the recent point of control and showing signs of distribution. If that level continues to hold as resistance, we could see a multi-leg push downward, with the 100 and 95 zones acting as check-in points.
If we break under the 90s and enter the imbalance zone, 80 becomes more than just possible—it becomes probable.
🗣️ Let’s Sharpen Together
Do you see this unfolding the same way?
Do you disagree with the 80 target?
Drop a comment with your view or share your own markup—this is why we trade!
Stay safe,
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer
This post is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal analysis and opinions. It is not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research, manage your risk appropriately, and never trade money you can’t afford to lose.
USDX trade ideas
My Analysis of the DXY ChartLooking at this chart, the DXY is moving within an ascending channel defined by the two white trendlines. Based on my analysis, there are a few key levels to watch, especially the Fibonacci retracement levels.
First, if the price starts to drop from the upper boundary of the channel, it is likely to retrace down to the 0.61 Fibonacci level. This is an important support zone, and the price might bounce back up from here.
However, if the 0.61 Fibonacci level doesn’t hold, the price could continue falling towards the 0.78 retracement level. This level is a much stronger support and could trigger a significant reversal if the price reaches it.
Finally, the lower boundary of the channel, marked by the white trendline, serves as the ultimate area of support. If the price falls this far, there’s a strong chance it will bounce back upward within the channel.
This analysis highlights the key zones where the price is likely to react and helps identify the next potential moves for the DXY
DXY Chart SummaryEh bro, this chart showing two roads for Dollar Index lah.
If price can break above that 100 level ah, then maybe will fly up to 92-94 area (last resistance zone).
But if kena reject at 100, then jialat, price can drop back down to 110 area again.
So now hor, this green box is the decision point — break or reject.
Wait for clear move first, don’t simply jump in."
DXY just broke below the 1W MA200 after 6 months!The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) broke today below its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 6 months (since the week of September 30 2024). By doing so, it has almost hit the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up.
The last contact with the 1W MA200 initiated a massive Bullish Leg two weeks after, so it would be an encouraging development if the candle holds here or better yet even close above the 1W MA200.
If it does, we expect a new strong Bullish Leg to start, targeting initially at least the 0.786 horizontal (blue) Fibonacci level at 108.000.
If not, the 2-year Support Zone is the last defense, with 99.600 as its lowest level (the July 10 2023 Low). Below that, a multi-year downtrend for DXY awaits.
Notice however, the incredible 1W RSI symmetry between selling sequences. Since January 2023, we've had two -54.50% declines. Right now, the current decline since January 2025 is exactly at -54.50%. If DXY rebounds here, it will confirm this amazing symmetry.
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Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (104.100) then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level.
📌I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs.
Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (103.500) Scalping/Day trade basis.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 105.000 (or) Escape Before the Target
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"DXY/Dollar Index" Indices Market Heist Plan (Scalping / Day Trade) is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors.
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DXY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for DXY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 104.207.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 102.727 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
DXY | Major Cycle Peak – Is the Dollar Losing Its Grip?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) appears to be following a well-defined historical cycle, marking major peaks approximately every 15–20 years. If history repeats, the 2022 peak near 114 could signal the beginning of a multi-year dollar decline, impacting global markets, commodities, and currency pairs like EUR/USD.
Historical Peaks & Reversals
Examining past DXY cycles, we see:
969 Peak (~120): Followed by a prolonged decline into the 1970s.
1985 Peak (~165): Marked by the Plaza Accord, triggering a sharp dollar downtrend.
2001 Peak (~120): Led to a multi-year decline as the Fed shifted policies.
2022 Peak (~114): The most recent high—could it mark the next major reversal?
Each peak historically aligns with aggressive Fed tightening cycles, followed by a shift towards easing policies, leading to a weaker dollar. With U.S. interest rates expected to plateau or decline, this pattern suggests a potential long-term bearish trend for the dollar.
Implications of a Weaker Dollar
Bullish for EUR/USD – A declining DXY typically strengthens the euro.
Boost for Commodities – Gold, oil, and other dollar-denominated assets could rally.
Stronger Emerging Markets – A softer dollar eases financial conditions globally.
With DXY showing signs of a historical cycle peak, investors and traders should watch for confirmation of a multi-year downtrend, potentially reshaping global markets.
Dollar I Monday CLS, KL - Order Block, Model 1Hey Traders!!
Feel free to share your thoughts, charts, and questions in the comments below—I'm about fostering constructive, positive discussions!
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CLS represents the "smart money" across all markets. It brings together the capital from the largest investment and central banks, boasting a daily volume of over 6.5 trillion.
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🛡️Follow me and take a closer look at Models 1 and 2.
These models are key to unlocking the market's potential and can guide you toward smarter trading decisions.
📍Remember, no strategy offers a 100%-win rate—trading is a journey of constant learning and improvement. While our approaches often yield strong profits, occasional setbacks are part of the process. Embrace every experience as an opportunity to refine your skills and grow.
Wishing you continued success on your trading journey. May this educational post inspire you to become an even better trader!
“Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
David Perk ⚔
DXY DTF AnalysisDXY DTF Analysis
DXY is currently in a downtrend, creating lower highs and lower lows. Price has recently broken below a minor key level at 103.300, followed by a retracement that targeted stop losses from sellers. This retracement has created liquidity at the liquidity zone, further validating the bearish sentiment. With the break below the minor support level, we are expecting the downtrend to continue.
Outlook and Key Technical Levels :
🔹 Minor Key Support: 103.300 (Break below signals bearish continuation)
🔹 Minor Key Resistance: 103.090 (Retracement level for sell limit order entry)
🔹 Next Minor Support: 99.850 (Downside target for sellers)
Fundamental Insight and Market Sentiment
📉 U.S. Dollar Weakness: The U.S. dollar has been under pressure recently due to growing concerns over tariffs, which have created uncertainty in the markets. This has fueled fears of a potential economic slowdown, with tariffs negatively impacting investor sentiment. The ongoing trade tensions and global uncertainties have resulted in a weaker outlook for the dollar, aligning with the technical breakdown in the DXY.
📈 Global Market Dynamics: Meanwhile, global risk sentiment remains mixed, with market participants seeking safer assets like gold, further weighing on the dollar. The negative impact from U.S. trade policies, combined with a shift in investor confidence, is contributing to a bearish outlook for the DXY.
Given the technical setup and broader market sentiment, we are closely monitoring DXY for potential sell opportunities, especially if price retraces within the identified levels for a better entry point.
📌 Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
The DXY extends its decline, maintaining a bearish sentiment The DXY extends its decline, maintaining a bearish sentiment as it sweeps imbalances toward 100.370. Meanwhile, the gold market remains bullish, benefiting from the weakening dollar. Traders should watch for further downside in DXY and potential strength in gold FOLLOW FOR MORE INSIGHTS , COMMENT AND BOOST IDEA
DXY April 3 Analysis DXY April 3 Analysis
*My parent bias is bear
*News 8:30 & 10
*Previous session price is in a discount the and in a discount on current trading range.
April 2 Analysis
Fantastic sell off that I was suspecting in NY. Price did not reach for the buy side I suspected however, In Asia Price did take very minor buy side at the 3 macro London and starting selling from a Premium. Retraced before NY open. And continued to sell off. Nice silver bullet at 10 macro, coming into the hourly FVG. Small retracement at 12 and small consolidation. At 16:00 huge retracement and wick sell off to make the low of the week I was again looking for. Notice how Price took weeks of sell side in 1 day. Great delivery.
April 3 Idea
I could see Price in Asia and London continue to sell off completing the rebalancing of the hourly FVG and seek the clean equal lows. Reassess for NY after that. That said there are 2 new drivers in NY to be open to reading what the chart gives me.
Stay humble to what Price prints and don't get stuck in any idea yet be nimble.
DXY:Expect an uptrend based on the daily chart supportOn Tuesday, the price of the U.S. Dollar Index generally fluctuated in a range. The price reached a daily high of 104.345, a low of 103.99, and closed at 104.19.
Looking back at the performance of the U.S. Dollar Index on Tuesday, after the morning opening, the price initially fell under short-term pressure. Subsequently, it halted its decline and resumed its upward movement above the daily support level, but the overall range was limited. The price rose in a volatile manner, and finally closed with a bullish doji.
From a weekly perspective, continue to focus on the 106.60 level, which is a key level for the medium-term trend. Below this level, the medium-term trend is bearish, and the price increase is temporarily regarded as a correction within the medium-term decline.
Meanwhile, from a daily perspective, temporarily pay attention to the 103.90 level, which is crucial for the wave trend. Above this level, adopt a bullish stance for the wave trend. Also, on the four-hour chart, temporarily focus on the support at the 104.10 area. Therefore, before the price breaks below the low of Monday, bet on an upward movement based on the daily support. Only after a downward break will the trend turn bearish.
Currently, there is a lot of news, so everyone must be cautious of market risks.
Trading Strategy:
buy@103.90-104
TP:104.50-104.80
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Potential Moves for DXYOn the H4 chart, DXY presents two potential paths. It appears that the bottom is in, as the price is painfully escaping a Wyckoff accumulation phase.
A key level to watch is 105.615, where a gap may need to be filled. Once this level is reached, the next move will depend on the retracement momentum. If bullish strength persists, DXY is likely to continue upward toward the 106.172 resistance level.
The broader market is feeling the impact of DXY’s movements, with all USD pairs experiencing pressure. Given the turbulent nature of exiting a Wyckoff phase, volatility should be expected.
⚠️ Risk Warning: These are my personal views, not financial advice (NFA). Trade carefully.
DXY is bearish, dont fade this move, BUY EURUSD AND GBPUSDI dont really know what the market is waiting for, why it has been ranging this few days but one thing is certain, the move downwards is certain. I will be really suprised if DXY moves up from here.
Dont miss out of this move, I'm begging.
My initial position is still open and I've added more from this point.
Follow me as my trades are market order and not limit orders so you will see and trade it on time
Dollar Index Bullish to $111.350 (UPDATE)The DXY price action from my last video analysis has been moving as we expected & following the arrow accordingly.
We’ve seen a nice dip for the Dollar, a healthy retracement to the downside which should now be followed by the next bull run back up.
Major Wave 5 (Wave Y) en-route to $111.350📈