USDX trade ideas
DXY DOLLAR INDEX The DXY has declined from its current high 114.54 to 96.59 reflecting a weaker dollar against a basket of major currencies including the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc.
Despite this decline, the dollar remains supported by strong US economic growth and higher US 10-year bond yields, which have widened the yield gap with other developed economies .
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has been relatively hawkish, with fewer rate cuts priced in compared to other central banks, helping to underpin the dollar.
Trade tensions and tariff uncertainties continue to create volatility, but the dollar benefits from safe-haven demand amid global uncertainties
Composition of the DXY Basket:
Euro (EUR): 57.6%
Japanese Yen (JPY): 13.6%
British Pound (GBP): 11.9%
Canadian Dollar (CAD): 9.1%
Swedish Krona (SEK): 4.2%
Swiss Franc (CHF): 3.6%
context
Drivers: US economic strength, Fed policy, bond yield differentials, trade tensions, and safe-haven flows keeping dollar on support hold.
Ongoing US tariff announcements and trade policy changes have contributed to volatility and risk aversion, pressuring the dollar lower.
US Economic Policy the Market is concerned about fiscal policy, Federal Reserve independence, and rising US debt which have led to reduced demand for US assets, further weighing on the dollar.
Interest Rate Differential:
The US Fed funds rate remains at 4.50%-4.25%, but with global central banks adjusting policy, the relative appeal of the dollar has diminished.
Conversely, a sustained move above 98.00 could signal a reversal and renewed dollar strength.
hope we can get back to 100 aagin.
#dollar
Macro Moves & Market Reversals: BTC-Metals-Tech-Dollar & more! 🤖📊 Macro Moves & Market Reversals: Bitcoin, Metals, Tech, Dollar & DAX Breakdown 🔥💹
Hey beautiful people,
FXPROFESSOR here with a massive market update to kick off the week. This one’s for my serious traders—those of you ready to read the market like a pro 📚💡
We’re in a critical transition. The Trump–Powell standoff, rate cut games, tariff escalations, and a surprising shift in risk appetite across bonds, metals, and equities are reshaping the entire trading landscape.
Let’s get into the full breakdown 👇
🧠 MACRO FIRST – THE FUNDAMENTAL PULSE
🟢 Interest Rates:
The Fed is keeping rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, citing strong jobs data. 147K jobs added, unemployment at 4.1%. The market wanted bad news for rate cuts... didn’t get it.
🗓 September remains the most likely cut, but the Fed isn’t rushing. Strong labor = slow policy change.
⚠️ Tariffs Heating Up:
Trump just slapped 25–40% tariffs on imports from Japan, Korea, and others – effective August 1.
➡️ If no political resolution by July 9, prepare for a volatility wave.
Tariffs = supply chain risks + cost-push inflation.
💣 Geopolitics:
Middle East tensions remain background noise, but no major disruptions for now. Still, oil remains sensitive.
📈 Risk Appetite (Bonds):
U.S. Treasuries still lagging, but junk bonds and quality credit (LQD) have pumped. That’s a big clue: risk appetite is returning, even without a Fed pivot.
📉 DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) – "THE YEAR OF THE NORMALIZED DOLLAR"
We’ve followed this dollar short all year.
🔻 From rejection at 100.965, DXY dropped straight into our long-term 94–95 target zone.
📌 Now what? This level is MAJOR. A bounce could trap dollar bears.
🧭 No new short from me unless we re-tag 100+. The juice is squeezed.
Key takeaway:
The dollar already priced in rate cuts, and we didn’t even get them. That’s telling me the next macro move might not be so predictable.
💰 BITCOIN – STILL THE KING
📍 BTC at $115K resistance – a level I’ve charted for years, not weeks.
Three hits:
1️⃣ First rejection
2️⃣ Second rejection
3️⃣ And now... a decisive moment
🚨 Break 115K → BTC flies.
📉 Fail here → we could revisit $64K, yes, seriously. I’m ready for both outcomes.
This is not the time for hopium. It’s 50/50.
🪙 BTC DOMINANCE – THE ALTCOIN SWITCH
BTC.D is now above 65%. That means:
✔️ Capital flowing back into BTC
❌ Altcoins not ready yet
We don’t chase alts until BTC.D hits 71.3–72.9%. That’s the real “altseason trigger zone.”
🔒 I’m personally turned off from alts for now—too much noise, too many memes, not enough macro support.
🔩 PRECIOUS METALS – SHINING BRIGHT
💛 Gold (XAU/USD):
Reached near $3,500 highs
Now stalling
🛑 Taking profits here – caution warranted.
🤍 Silver (XAG/USD):
13-year high
Holding $36+ well
Potential breakout pending global inflation data
💿 Platinum (the sleeper):
+47% YTD
Beautiful long setup played out exactly as planned
Still bullish above $1,400 if supply squeeze continues
💡 ETFs in metals are seeing inflows – more institutions hedging as dollar weakens.
🚗🔌 TECH STOCKS – NVDA, TSLA & THE NASDAQ
📈 NVIDIA (NVDA)
Best trade of the year for me
Clean re-entry, now hitting ATH levels
AI demand + tight supply = rocket fuel
⚡ Tesla (TSLA)
Bounce off 4H trendline
Still lagging slightly – political tensions (Trump vs. Musk) not helping
But levels are working like a charm
📊 NASDAQ (QQQ)
Hit our “max pain” zone perfectly
Rebounded with textbook precision
Momentum intact – watching for new highs
🇩🇪 DAX INDEX – CHARTS DON’T LIE
All-time high. Boom. Called it weeks ago.
Despite:
No Russian energy
Industrial drag
ECB policy constraints
📌 But what worked?
➡️ Simple chart structure.
➡️ Market psychology.
➡️ Pure TA.
Now at resistance again. Watch carefully – support below is clearly defined.
🧾 FINAL THOUGHTS – THE PROFESSOR'S NOTES
🔹 The market’s narrative can change fast, especially with Trump in the mix. He’s Mr. Volatility.
🔹 Powell holds the real power – and right now, he’s not flinching.
🔹 Risk appetite is back – but not evenly. Bitcoin is leading, altcoins are lagging, metals are maturing.
🔹 If rate cuts materialize in September, expect massive rotation across all risk assets.
💭 Until then, I’m playing level-to-level. No FOMO. Just charts and logic. That’s how we survive, and thrive.
Let me know which chart you want next – and thank you for staying sharp 💪📚
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
Could the price reverse from here?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot, which has been identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 97.90
1st Support: 96.74
1st Resistance: 98.67
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
US$ Index and the Elliott Wave PrinciplesWe are on the last 'leg' of an impulse move that should contain 5 Waves and is marked in Red. After Wave 1(Red) completed, we witnessed a Zigzag correction for Wave 2(Red). This means we should expect a Flat correction for Wave 4(Red). Wave 3(Red) is extended to the 361.8% Fib. level and this is very normal for both impulse and corrective waves. When Wave 3 (Red) is complete, a shallow correction appears and this is the first wave of the Flat correction. This is marked in Green. Wave B(Green) reaches the 423.6% Fib. level(which is normal) and in doing so extends beyond the end of wave 3(Red), which is also according to the rules of a Flat correction. At the 423.6% Fib. level, this level is also 100% of the inner zigzag from points A to B(Green). At this area we see a retest and confirmation take place, which marks the end of Wave B(Green) and the start of Wave C(Green) which is also Wave 4(Red).
DXYDXY is still having some more correction to the upside before the major drop.
Disclosure: We are part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in our analysis.
DXY Targeting Liquidity Zones & Gap Fill Before Potential ReversThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is showing a strong bullish push, climbing steadily along an ascending trendline. Price appears to be heading toward key liquidity levels and a visible Fair Value Gap (FVG) near the previous New York high. The chart also highlights an unfilled gap above, which aligns with a potential liquidity sweep scenario.
Once these upper zones are tapped — including the liquidity and imbalance areas — a significant rejection could follow, especially considering ongoing strength in the Euro (EUR). This setup suggests a high-probability reversal opportunity after the liquidity grab
DXY: The Market Is Looking Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 97.054 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
The best strategies if the US dollar rebounds this summerFor several months now, the US dollar (DXY) has been under pressure against the major currencies, falling by over 11% since the start of the year. However, technical and fundamental signals suggest that a low point could be reached this summer. In this scenario, it is essential to measure the possible consequences on the markets and anticipate the best strategies to protect or boost your portfolio.
At this stage, the US dollar has not confirmed a major low, but it will eventually happen, so it's important to anticipate the consequences for all asset classes, and identify the best strategies to implement at an early stage, particularly on Forex.
In this new analysis in the TradingView columns, we ask a number of questions, including the impact on gold, the price of bitcoin and Forex vehicles for exposure to a possible rebound in the US dollar.
1) On the technical front, many of the bearish targets have been made
The first point to watch is the technical configuration. The DXY is now evolving on long-term support levels, with divergences indicating that the downtrend is running out of steam. Indicators such as the RSI and MACD show that selling pressure is weakening on the weekly timeframe. The monthly uptrend line is still active, although the signal varies according to the scale chosen. It's still too early to say that the US dollar has made its final low, but it's worth bearing in mind that most of the bearish technical targets in Elliott waves have been made.
2) If the US dollar were to rebound this summer, what impact would this have on gold and the bitcoin price?
Secondly, a rebound in the dollar would have a direct impact on other asset classes. Gold is influenced by several fundamental factors, notably its inverse correlation with the US dollar and the impact of GOLD ETFs, which are themselves closely linked to the underlying trend in the US dollar. Overall, we believe that if the US dollar were to rebound, gold would lose a good third of its bullish fundamentals. The table below summarizes the factors influencing gold's underlying trend.
Crypto-currencies, and Bitcoin in particular, could also be penalized by a stronger dollar and a contraction in global liquidity (M2). The US dollar plays a very direct role in the calculation of M2 global liquidity, and the bitcoin price is highly correlated with the underlying trend in M2 global liquidity. This indicator, which aggregates the money supply of the major economies converted into US dollars, generally acts on bitcoin with an average lag of around 12 weeks. The latest statistics show a new all-time high for this global liquidity.
This factor is helping to sustain the upward trend observed since April, despite a complex fundamental context marked by a Federal Reserve determined to maintain a restrictive monetary policy in the short term.
The US dollar, by strengthening or weakening, directly modifies the total value of M2 expressed in dollars.
This contributes to the extent of global liquidity and, consequently, to the evolution of bitcoin. Consequently, if the US dollar rebounds this summer, expect a bearish impact on BTC from this autumn onwards.
3) If the US dollar rebounds this summer, what are the best Forex strategies to consider?
Finally, on a practical level, there are several strategies to consider. On Forex, a dollar rebound scenario calls for monitoring major pairs such as EUR/USD, in order to identify selling entry points if a top is confirmed.
But the most direct and unleveraged way to gain exposure to the US dollar (DXY) is through ETFs. Should the US dollar rebound, then exposure to a US dollar (DXY) ETF may be a good strategy. Unlike futures and CFDs, there's no leverage, so it allows for better risk management.
We also suggest that you keep a close eye on the USD/CAD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD currency pairs in the event of a summer rebound scenario for the US dollar against a basket of major currencies.
We will continue to bring you regular analysis on the US dollar to determine whether or not a major low will emerge this summer.
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DXY: The Market Is Looking Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding above a key level of 97.463 So a bullish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next high. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Bullish bounce off major support?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 97.14
1st Support: 96.74
1st Resistance: 98.08
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Forex Weekly Round-Up: DXY, GBPUSD, EURUSDKey Price Zones (DXY): 97.422 - 97.685
🟦 DXY (Dollar Index):
On paper, USD had a strong week:
🔹 Durable Goods smashed expectations (+8.6% vs 0.5%)
🔹 PMIs, GDP Price Index, and Jobless Claims came in solid
But the market ignored it:
🔻 Consumer Confidence disappointed (93.0 vs 99.4)
🏠 New Home Sales missed
🕊️ Fed Chair Powell stayed soft — no aggressive tightening talk
Result?
Despite strong fundamentals, DXY broke down, sweeping daily lows and printing fresh bearish structure.
It’s now down ~10% YTD — the worst first half in over 50 years.
📈 EURUSD & GBPUSD: Holding Strong Despite Weak Data
EURUSD
German Retail Sales: –1.6%
Import Prices: –0.7%
ECB tone: muted
Still, EURUSD held daily support and gained — thanks to broad USD weakness.
GBPUSD
Current Account widened (–£23.5B), GDP unchanged
No standout UK catalyst
Yet GBPUSD held its ground and edged higher as DXY continued to fall.
🧠 What This Tells Us
Strong data isn’t always enough.
When price action, market sentiment, and liquidity targets align — they override the numbers.
DXY HEAD & SHOULDER TARGET INSIGHT? The dollar index has printed a head & shoulder pattern on the hourly chart and while it's in resistance zone of initial target, there is momentum building up to push through to next target of 97.912. This is supported by a golden cross on the 1H timeframe. The target at 97.912 also closes a window that was left open on June 24th, 2025. This trade has a low risk to high reward ratio. Cheers and Best of trading to everyone
DXY - MonthlyEvery breakdown in the past the DXY had a steep decline. Not really a period where it has continued to fluctuate at a certain level. I think it might be plausible that this pattern will continue to repeat itself.
Dollar Index AnalysisDollar Index has been in continuous sell for last 5 Months. Has hit the demand zone and giving a pull back and short term trend in daily and 4H charts. From the 4H charts we can see that it is in short term uptrend move and has pushed higher and it is giving a pull back which is visible.
DXY SHORT?
## 📉 **DXY Bearish Setup for 2025 – Fed Cuts, Fiscal Strain, Technical Breakdown**
### 🧠 Thesis
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is poised to remain under pressure through the rest of 2025 due to macro, policy, and technical headwinds. With the Fed preparing for multiple rate cuts, rising fiscal imbalances, and a strong global diversification away from USD, the broader trend points **downward**.
---
### 🔍 Fundamentals Driving USD Weakness
* **Federal Reserve Pivot**: 2–3 rate cuts expected in 2025 → erodes USD yield advantage.
* **Surging U.S. Deficits**: Debt-to-GDP nearing 130%, undermining investor confidence.
* **De-dollarization Trend**: Central banks diversifying reserves (yuan, gold, euro).
* **Political Noise**: Tariff risk + weak-dollar narrative from Trump camp adds pressure.
---
### 📊 Technical Outlook (1D/1W Charts)
* DXY is trading below **9/20/50 EMA**.
* RSI \~43 with hidden bearish divergence.
* Clear **descending channel** since mid-2024.
* Key **support zone: 97.90 – 96.40**.
* Below 97.90 opens path toward 96.00–95.00.
---
### 🛠️ Trade Setup
| Type | Short (swing/position) |
| -------- | ---------------------- |
| Entry | Break below 98.00 |
| Target 1 | 96.40 |
| Target 2 | 95.00 |
| SL | Above 99.50 |
| R\:R | \~2.5:1 |
---
### ⚠️ Risks
* Surprise inflation → Fed pauses cuts
* Safe haven bid from geopolitical shocks
* Strong upside breakout >101.00 = trend invalidation
---
### 💬 Final Note
As long as DXY remains below 99.50, rallies are selling opportunities. Watch the 97.90–98.00 level — a confirmed breakdown could mark a fresh leg lower toward 95.00 by year-end.
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### 🏷️ Tags
`#DXY` `#USD` `#DollarIndex` `#Forex` `#Macro` `#Bearish` `#TradingSetup` `#ShortUSD`
---
DXY Bearish The DXY is currently positioned at a critical level, experiencing significant volatility. It appears to be transitioning between key zones, with a potential shift from the 98.058–97.917 range into a bearish move. If confirmed, the index could target lower levels around 95.5 to 94.00
Dollar looks ready to blast off...we'll see if its a risk assetBasic, strength and pattern analysis. Dollar appears to be completing its Primary A wave of a cyclical correction. Strength has built up, the pattern looks right, and leave it to a large magnitude A wave to complete in a no man's land of Fib support...(ABC extension corrective not pictured).
I would expect a run back up to the Intermediate B over the next 6-8 months, and maybe even higher. One more low is possible, but not necessary...neither from a pattern perspective, nor from a strength perspective, although I have a little extension box below in green, and if it is to extend, that is the target.
DXY Jul. 11The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
Have a nice day ahead.
DXY - Long Term Buy Cycle DXY
Long term buy cycle
Started January 2025
TP 110
% Bubble Ratio
Currently in a negative bubble with a fair value at 110
DXY 1D – Tipping Point: News or Price Action?Hey Guys,
The DXY index is currently moving within a downtrend. This trend is unlikely to reverse unless it breaks above the 98.950 level.
Sure, key fundamental data could shift the trend, but without those news catalysts, a reversal at this point doesn’t seem realistic.
Don’t forget—98.950 is a critical threshold for the DXY.
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I’m truly grateful for each of you—love to all my followers💙💙💙
Dollar Index Bullish OverviewThe Dollar moving Bullish as we expect it to within the Gold Fund! As soon as we saw a '5 Bearish Wave Completion' on the DXY, straight away buyers entered the market & start pushing price back up.
My Gold Fund investors & Gold Vault Academy students know from our 'Q3 Market Breakdown Report' what we're expecting for the Dollar in the next 3 months.
possibility of downtrendIt is expected that the upward trend will advance to the specified resistance range and then we will see a change in trend and the beginning of the downtrend.
If the index crosses the resistance range and consolidates above this range, the continuation of the upward trend will be likely.
