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DeGRAM | DXY has fallen below the retracement levelThe DXY is in an ascending channel between the trend lines. During the closing of the gap, the chart formed a new one and then sharply went down and closed the new gap. The price has already reached the resistance level, the upper trend line and the upper boundary of the channel and has now dropped below the 62% retracement level. The chart has broken the ascending structure. We expect a decline. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
TVC:DXYShort
by DeGRAM
5
Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)Technical Analysis Monthly Chart: Since January 2023, the DXY has been moving within a range. The upper boundary of this range was marked by the 107.348 level, which has now been cleared. This breach of the previous high suggests that liquidity above the range has been taken, signaling the potential for a downside move. Historically, such liquidity grabs often precede significant reversals, aligning with the current bearish setup. Daily Chart: On the daily timeframe, the DXY displayed a sharp decline after taking out its last significant high. This aggressive sell-off has formed a strong bearish pattern, indicating a potential continuation to the downside. The presence of strong bearish momentum highlights sellers' dominance in the current market conditions, reinforcing the bearish outlook initiated by the liquidity grab on the monthly chart. Price Targets: Short-Term Target: A move toward 104.636 is expected as the DXY continues its bearish momentum, which aligns with immediate support and prior structural lows. Medium-to-Long-Term Target: If the bearish trajectory persists, the DXY could reach the 101.917 level, which aligns with a significant support zone from previous price action. This target reflects the potential for extended downside in a broader bearish scenario. Fundamental Analysis Federal Reserve and Interest Rates: Recent minutes from the Federal Reserve highlight concerns about continuing rate cuts due to the potential risks they pose to inflation. The Fed has signaled that further rate reductions would only be considered if both the labor market weakens and inflation continues to decline. However, these two factors are closely intertwined. Labor Market Conditions: Historically, the months of November and December exhibit strong employment trends due to holiday hiring. This seasonality reduces the likelihood of immediate rate cuts, as a robust labor market typically does not align with the conditions necessary for easing monetary policy. Inflation Outlook: For the Fed to proceed with aggressive rate cuts, inflation figures would need to remain stable or show further declines. If unemployment rises and inflation remains under control, the Fed may have room for another round of cuts. Such a scenario would support a long-term bearish outlook for the DXY, as lower interest rates reduce demand for the U.S. dollar. Summary and Outlook Technically, the DXY is positioned for further downside following the liquidity grab above the 107.348 level and the subsequent bearish pattern on the daily chart. Fundamentally, while seasonal strength in the labor market may delay immediate bearish moves, the broader macroeconomic context suggests that eventual rate cuts are likely. Key factors to monitor include: Unemployment data in the coming months. Inflation trends to confirm stability or further declines. Any changes in the Fed’s tone regarding rate policy. Price Expectations: In the short term, we could see the DXY reach 104.636, reflecting a retracement toward a key support zone. In the medium to long term, the DXY is likely to target 101.917, aligning with major support from prior price structures and further confirming the bearish outlook. If unemployment begins to rise and inflation remains under control, these targets become even more probable, reinforcing the alignment between technical and fundamental factors.
TVC:DXYShort
by Wiiso
Trump threatens BRICS over currency plans President-elect Donald Trump issued a sharp warning to BRICS nations over the weekend, urging them to "find another sucker" and threatening 100% tariffs on any efforts to create an alternative currency that challenges the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been a prominent advocate for reducing reliance on the dollar, proposing a shared South American currency in 2023 to diminish dependency on the USD. However, analysts warn that Trump’s rhetoric could backfire. They argue that intimidating nations to stick with the dollar might inadvertently amplify interest in alternatives, which remain more symbolic than a genuine economic threat to the U.S. for now.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot which is a pullback support and could drop to the 1st support which is a pullback support. Pivot: 106.18 1st Support: 105.27 1st Resistance: 107.04 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
Welp I guess just buy anything (priced in $)The dollar is about to go down heavily. Stuff priced in dollars - for example, equities and crypto - will go up correspondingly. Let's look at this weekly chart of the DXY, which is the dollar versus a basket of other currencies, overlaid with the Fed Funds Rate, which is, simplistically, the main interest rate. We see that when rates go up, the dollar goes up. The inverse is also true. This relation is because when interest rates are low, it has an effect similar to printing money, where the *value* of the dollar is diluted by all the new dollars coming into circulation. The markets are forward-looking. The DXY started its parabolic run upwards in H2 2021 in advance of the actual raise in the interest rate. It broke the parabola also in advance of the rate being tapered - that is, rates still increased for a little, but by less and less. Then rates went sideways and so did the dollar, in a multi-year range with clearly defined support and resistance. Now, rates are coming down again - and the dollar will fall. It tapped the top of the range, made a little exuberant Swing Failure Pattern to the next weekly resistance, and formed a technical high (the Low of the highest candle was just taken on close by this week's candle. Most likely path is now to the bottom of the range at ~100, then bounce and continue down to previous support at ~89. Coming on top of the existing market euphoria around US elections, and the all-time highs in SPY and Bitcoin, this is likely to trigger a parabolic run up in *all* risk assets. Oddly, safe-haven assets like Gold and Silver will I think *also* rise, because they are inflation hedges - the original meaning of inflation, of course, being inflation of the currency.
TVC:DXYLong
by SimpleCryptoLife
DXY Is Bullish! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for DXY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 105.777. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 108.336 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
Week Ahead: US Jobs Data in FocusThe first full week of December places the spotlight on US jobs data. Employment metrics from the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) manufacturing and services PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Indexes) land on Monday and Wednesday, respectively, JOLTs data (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) airs Tuesday, ADP jobs numbers (Automatic Data Processing) are out Wednesday, weekly unemployment claims on Thursday and, of course, the employment situation report makes the airwaves Friday. In addition to US numbers, CPI inflation data (Consumer Price Index) from Switzerland, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) numbers from Australia, and Canadian jobs figures are released this week. Fed Expected to Cut by 25 Basis Points According to the latest market pricing, investors are leaning in favour of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing the target on the funds rate by another 25 basis points (bps) over a no-change decision at the next meeting on 18 December. US inflation remains ‘sticky’ north of the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target, with YY (year on year) CPI inflation rising to 2.6% in October from 2.4% in September, YY PPI inflation (Producer Price Index) rising to 2.4% from 1.9%, and YY PCE data (Personal Consumption Expenditures), according to a report released last week, elbowed to 2.3% from 2.1%. Core YY CPI inflation – excludes food and energy prices – remained at 3.3%, core PPI inflation rose to 3.1% from 2.9%, and core PCE data rose to 2.8% from 2.7%. So, while inflation has slowed considerably since the pandemic, inflationary pressures show evidence of stubbornness. PCE data, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, is holding just north of 2.0%, and core PCE has stalled around the 2.8% mark amid increased consumption, particularly in services. This week’s US job numbers will be critical and is the last employment report before the Fed rate announcement. These data will provide a fresh perspective on the health of the world’s largest economy and help determine the trajectory of the Federal funds rate. According to data from Refinitiv, following the economy adding 12,000 new payrolls in October – influenced by the recent hurricanes and strike activity – the median estimate for the November non-farm payrolls data is 190,000, with a max/min estimate range between 270,000 and 160,000. The unemployment rate is also expected to have ticked higher to 4.2% in November from 4.1% in October, with average earnings growth expected to slow on both MM (month on month) and YY measures. According to Q3 24 data released last week (second estimate), US economic activity (GDP) remains resilient, running at an annualised pace of 2.8% and was primarily underpinned by personal consumption. With the economy resilient, should job creation report higher-than-expected numbers and unemployment decline, investors could re-evaluate the prospect of a rate cut later this month and lift the US dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields. US Dollar Index Ahead of Data While the USD caught an early bid off the back of President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats, the Dollar Index – a geometrically weighted average of the USD’s value against a basket of six currencies – concluded the week on the back foot down 1.6% and dominantly snapped a three-week bullish phase. With scope to continue exploring higher terrain on the monthly chart until resistance from 109.33, the recent correction positions price action at technically noteworthy daily support between 105.48 and 105.80. Couple this with the area sharing chart space with channel support, extended from the low of 100.18, and the Golden Cross – the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing above the 200-day SMA, which suggests a long-term bull market could be on the table – in addition to the USD’s current trend and room to punch higher on the monthly scale, this support area could be a zone that buyers make a show from. Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
TVC:DXYLong
by FPMarkets
US October PCE Price Index PreviewToday, Australian CPI inflation numbers (Consumer Price Index) have already been seen, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has announced a 50-basis point (bp) cut during Asia Pac trading. In addition to Q3 24 US GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data coming in unchanged, the October US PCE price index (Personal Consumption Expenditures) will hit the wires at 3:00 pm GMT and is forecast to have risen on a YY basis (year on year). PCE Data Expected to Report Higher Numbers Market expectations, according to Refinitiv data, suggest YY headline and core (excludes volatile food and energy prices) US PCE data has risen to 2.3% (from 2.1% in September) and 2.8% (from 2.7%), in October, respectively. Additionally, the October Personal Income and Outlays report is anticipated to show a 0.4% gain in personal income compared to 0.3% in September. This may seem surprising in light of the miserable jobs report we just had in October, though we must remember that wage growth has indeed increased. Rate Cut Still Likely in December PCE data are closely monitored by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and is their preferred measure of inflation. The Fed works to an inflation target of 2.0%, and assuming a higher PCE print today, this may be a little too hot for comfort and could prompt the central bank to consider hitting the pause button next month. We also have to remember that Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank is not in any rush to cut rates while other Fed members have emphasised caution regarding easing policy too fast. In my humble opinion, however, today’s PCE data is unlikely to prompt a pause from the Fed in December. Still, I feel we are now approaching a stage of a potentially shallower easing cycle, given inflation remains stubbornly north of the Fed’s inflation target. That said, should higher-than-expected jobs data be received next week, this could boost the chances of a rate hold next month and will likely underpin the US dollar (USD). Money markets are pricing in around 15 bps of easing for the December meeting (investors are assigning a 55% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps next month over a 45% probability they hold). Seeing as both CPI and PPI (Producer Price Index) inflation numbers have already been released for October, these data help calculate the PCE figures. You will likely recall CPI inflation data came in line with economists’ estimates; however, YY headline inflation rose to 2.6% in October, increasing from September’s rate of 2.4% and marking the first upward shift since March. The largest upward contributor to CPI inflation was housing – more than half of the rise was down rising prices in housing – with food prices also rising in October. PPI inflation also increased across headline and core measures in October to 2.4% (from 1.9% in September) and 3.1% (from 2.9% in September). While both the CPI and PCE Indexes attempt to measure consumer prices by tracking changes in the prices of a specific basket of goods and services each month, the CPI assigns a far greater weighting to shelter than the PCE Index does, which highlights that the PCE data could still fail to reach estimates. Dollar Index Fading Range Resistance As shown from the daily timeframe of the US Dollar (USD) Index, price action is fading quite a substantial range resistance from 107.21. This is a level the FP Markets Research Team have been watching closely for a while now, as a breakout from here could send the Index towards monthly resistance at 109.33. However, a daily support area between 106.13 and 106.50 is currently in play, which could, given the room to run for monthly resistance, pose a problem for USD sellers. Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
TVC:DXYLong
by FPMarkets
DXY Is Bearish! Sell! Take a look at our analysis for DXY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 106.269. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 104.187 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYShort
by SignalProvider
1
Dollar Down and Crypto PumpsHoping for DXY to drop down to the lower range and allow liquidity to keep flowing into crypto so we can keep pumping. Also watching BTC.D closely, if this breaks down and makes a new lower low then we can say with a lot more probability that Altcoin Season or Alt season is truely upon us. Lets watch and wait! I am in a few positions, XRP/DOGE/VIRTUALS ready for the action. Not financial advice, lots of volatility and risk out there, watch out for the bulls too.
TVC:DXYLong
by NFVeej