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Could this be the fall of the Dollar???The dollar is about to break the last significant structure on the monthly time frame. We have seen the dollar dropping over the last few months after its reaction from the last swing high. Market structure shows price creating lower lows and lower highs which are confirmed by endless BOS. We can see a clear 11min OB has been left from the last low that price created once it tapped into the 18h demand which may allow us a buying opportunity to buy the dollar up to the 1h supply where we will continue to see it fall to it's untimely demise. previous price action from this 18H however, didn't create much movement despite the fact it also took ASL liquidity possibly suggesting buying power in the market has no strength what so ever. We have to also consider the possibility price may not even be able to push back up but rather fall targeting the Asian lows as this would be considered a magnet for price movement.
TVC:DXYShort
by JamelCapital
Usd still not given clear direction on higher TimeframeHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Right at the low of 2023 Jan,want to break but not breaking the last FOMC lows...only to play the whips so far...not clear direction..hopefully NFP give some clear indication of either further downside OR reversal. What you all think? Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
TVC:DXY
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
Study of DXY, Gold, and Fed Fund Rates using 200MA indicatorBlack line: DXY (U.S. dollar index) Green line: DXY 200 week moving average Yellow line: GC (Gold futures) Blue line: DFF (U.S. Federal Funds Effective Rate) Since 1971 when U.S. dollar went off the gold standard, there have been 6 instances when the DXY crossed below its 200 week moving average while it was rising. At closing on 27 September 2024 was the 7th instance of this DXY crossing. Of interest: Performance of gold when DXY crosses below, until DXY reaches a local minimum. Results are highlighted in purple boxes. Of the 7 instances, interest rates were rising in 4, flat in 1, falling in 1, and presumed to be falling in the current scenario. The only rising rate period was 1985-92, when gold had a very marginal 4% gain. This was notably on the backside of the 1970's high inflation period. Technically, gold showed gains in all but 1 of these historical periods, with 1994-95 showing a 2% loss. Conclusions: 1) DXY trend reversal downward is not always, or often, associated with a U.S. interest rate cutting cycle nor is it strongly correlated with gold price gains. 2) The start of a U.S. interest rate cutting cycle is not predictive of gold price gains.
TVC:DXY
by StrobeT
Rising Global Liquidity: Deflationary Dollar & Rallying EquitiesWhile it's uncommon for the dollar ( TVC:DXY ) and equities (S&P 500) to rise simultaneously, historical instances illustrate that it can occur under specific economic conditions. I think those conditions may be upon us! Historical Examples: 1995: DXY Movement: Strengthening S&P 500 Movement: Rising Context: Strong economic growth and corporate earnings propelled equities higher. 2001-2002: DXY Movement: Strengthening S&P 500 Movement: Rising Context: Economic recovery following the tech bubble burst. 2011: DXY Movement: Strengthening S&P 500 Movement: Rising Context: Safe-haven buying of the dollar amid European debt concerns, while stocks benefited from robust corporate earnings. March 2020: DXY Movement: Strengthening S&P 500 Movement: Rising (post-COVID) Context: Initial flight to safety due to uncertainty, followed by stimulus-driven stock market recovery. Mid-Late 2025 - Crescendo: DXY Movement: Potential strength driven by deflationary AI Pressure cheapening productivity & labor cycles S&P 500 Movement: Rising markets as all assets rally as a result of increased liquidity from stimulus Context: it takes a few months for stimulus to reach assets- the next few *years* might have stimulus coming. Inflate the debt away while the dollar rises? These historical instances suggest that a strengthening dollar *can* coexist with rising equities, particularly in environments characterized by global liquidity increases. Given the chart, we have a convergence of two long term trend lines, first in the ascending channel on the ‘short term’ (1yr candles, in top photo ascending channel). Then for the longer term ‘cup’ trend going back decades (ref bottom RSI momentum dating back to 1980s), *that* might show that we truly are on the cusp of incredible amounts of stimulus. What do you think? Is it possible that the dollar goes higher while we receive trillions in stimulus? Is this the fuel for the ‘everything rally’?
TVC:DXY
by httpz
Possible Trend of the Dollar Index in 2023In this idea, the trend of the dollar index in 2023 is shown. In 2022, due to the fall of the stock index of most industrialized countries, we saw the growth of the dollar index, and the final resistance line according to the Fibonacci tool set at the Fibonacci level of 1.41 and the index at 114. but after that, the dollar index began to fall, and this fall has three hard resistance levels ahead, and the hardest level is the range between Fibonacci 0.38-0.5. Good luck. SEYED
TVC:DXY
by SEYED98
7
Dollar index sellAs dollar index was bearish all the week and in my view it will remain bearish for the next week as Dxy is moving in a falling wedge in which it has completed its 4 waves over H4 to H1 TF and going to complete its last wave 🌊 E if this pattern is not a failed pattern then DXY will remian Bearish all the next week also we our team has observed that Dollar is Bearish on All timeframes from Monthly to weekly to Daily to H4 to H1 so we will be bearish for the next week as Geopolitics is concerned we can predict a downward move in dollar index Hope for the good 👍😊
TVC:DXYShort
by Wakeel_Saab
End of the week analysis27th September DXY: Price could trade higher to retest 100.90, if bearish trendline held, could trade back down to 100.55 NZDUSD: Buy 0.6290 SL 20 TP 40 AUDUSD: Buy 0.6905 SL 15 TP 50 GBPUSD: Sell 1.3290 SL 25 TP 75 (if support holds) Buy 1.3345 SL 30 TP 80 EURUSD: Sell 1.1090 SL 25 TP 80 USDJPY: Could range 143 to 144.50, Buy 145 SL 50 TP 200 USDCHF: Nothing for now USDCAD: Sell 1.3480 SL 25 TP 60 Gold: Could retrace down to 2640-2652 range, look for reaction there.
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
EURUSD end of day updateTechnically it is not the end of the day because in the U.S. the markets are still open, but as a last update for the day on the Dollar we will switch to the 30 min timeframe and see what happens: if from now on we will get a nice 30 min correction with its correlated cross in red on the macd (simulated with a brush) and the price will not just drop to retest the low, tomorrow again we will look for buy setups (so sells on eurusd, gbpusd and possibly gold). If instead the price will drop strongly to the downside and will give a small correction to the upside - light blue arrows (which would most likely be a 5 minute timeframe red cross on the macd for the impulse and a subsequent green cross on the macd for the correction) then we will temporarily forget the sells on the xxxusd pairs and check if there are any buy setups that are worth it.
TVC:DXY
by TradingClear