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US dollar rally faces hurdle as rates unwind stalls at key levelWhether it reflects US economic exceptionalism reducing the need for large-scale rate cuts from the Federal Reserve or improved prospects for Donald Trump winning the US Presidential election, or a combination of both, it’s obvious the US interest rate outlook is dictating direction across FX markets. Higher US yields are sucking capital from other parts of the world, helping to fuel US dollar strength. With short-dated Treasury futures teetering above a key technical level, what happens next could be highly influential in determining the path for currencies and global borrowing costs as we move towards year-end.
TVC:DXYEducation
by FOREXcom
2
Dollar Index - Busy Week Ahead. Expect VolatilityFor over 2 weeks, dollar index has been bullish, rallying up to the weekly objective of 103.546 - 104.080 fair value gap whilst also pinging off the daily bearish order block. Bearishness this week down to the most local imbalance @ 103.444 - 103.345 (T1) and 102.993 - 103.031 (T2) would be considered a healthy retracement in the grand scheme of the bull run. Have you not noticed that as the FED and other central banks lower their interest rates (effectively making their money to borrow cheaper) lead to a low resistance liquidity run. Monday - 2 medium events Tuesday - 4 medium, 1 High event Wednesday - 3 Medium - 5 High event Thursday - 4 Medium, 9 High event Friday - 5 medium, 2 High events
TVC:DXYShort
by LegendSince
Analysis of Dollar / DXYAs I mentioned in yesterday's analysis, there is a strong bullish momentum. Today, after the market opened, we saw that the price continued in that direction, following the upward trend. I took advantage of this momentum on other currency pairs and entered trades. On the weekly time frame, we can see a lot of liquidity as well as movement within a consolidation zone. What I anticipate could happen tomorrow is a pullback due to news and a continuation of the momentum on the daily time frame. Of course, we need to wait and be patient before entering a trade.
TVC:DXY
by andricstrahinja95
Levels discussed on Livestream 21 October21st October DXY: needs to stay above 103.40 to continue uptrend to 103.90, beyond that 104.20 NZDUSD: Sell 0.6040 SL 30 TP 60 AUDUSD: Sell 0.6635 SL 20 TP 60 GBPUSD: Sell 1.2950 SL 30 TP 130 EURUSD: Look for reaction at 1.08-1.0780 support level USDJPY: Buy 150.50 SL 30 TP 120 (Hesitation at 150.90-151) USDCHF: Buy 0.8680 SL 35 TP 70 USDCAD: Could climb higher, looking for reaction around 1.39 Gold: Look for retracement to complete, then continue uptrend to 2750 (needs to stay above 2700)
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
How High Can the Dollar Go?The US dollar continues its impressive rally, marking three consecutive weeks of gains. This sustained strength is fueled by robust US economic data, persistent inflation, and a hawkish Federal Reserve. The dollar's rally reflects a significant shift in market sentiment. Initially triggered by escalating geopolitical tensions, the dollar's strength has been further reinforced by positive economic data. This combination of factors has fueled a powerful uptrend. Economic Strength: The US economy has consistently defied expectations of a slowdown, with strong labor market data and resilient consumer spending driving growth. Nonfarm payrolls continue to impress, with a significant number of jobs being added to the economy. The unemployment rate remains low, indicating a tight labor market. This, combined with robust consumer spending, paints a positive picture of the US economy, bolstering the dollar's appeal. Inflation Persistence: Despite some cooling, US inflation remains sticky, exceeding the Fed's 2% target. This persistent inflation reinforces the Fed's hawkish stance and diminishes the likelihood of significant rate cuts, further supporting the dollar's strength. Technical Confirmation: The dollar's uptrend is evident in the technicals. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has broken through key resistance levels, signaling further upside potential. The clean breakouts and strong momentum observed on various timeframes reinforce the bullish outlook for the dollar. Traders are closely watching for a sustained break above the 104 level, which could open the door for a more upside trajectory. Upcoming News: Bank of Canada (BoC) Interest Rate Decision: The BoC is widely expected to cut rates by 50 basis points, reflecting the slowdown in the Canadian economy and easing inflation. This potential rate cut could weigh on the Canadian dollar, particularly against the strong US dollar. A dovish BoC could push USD/CAD above 1.3900, while a data-dependent approach with a pause in a rate cut trajectory might cause a bounce from this level and return back toward the trendline. Eurozone and UK PMIs: The release of manufacturing and services PMIs for the Eurozone and the UK will provide further insights into the economic outlook for these regions. Weaker-than-expected PMI figures could weigh on the euro and the British pound, especially against the strong US dollar. EUR/USD falling to 1.0800. Break below likely - Only a hawkish ECB or strong PMIs can save it. Will 1.3000 hold? Traders are on edge as GBP/USD tests this key support. A break could trigger a wave of selling towards 1.2850. Share your thoughts on the dollar's outlook in the comments below. Follow our profile for more fundamental and technical analysis updates. This is a market analysis, not trading advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trade responsibly and do your own research.
TVC:DXY
by E8Markets
DXY D1 - Short Signal DXY D1 Cleaning up our dollar index chart here, we have previously been following the price level of 103.000, then 103.300 and now we are looking at this 104.000 whole number. This would be an area of resistance we would yet again expect a rejection. Of course, we have exploded through both previous zones, after some consolidation. Without trying to catch a falling knife, so to speak… There certainly should be a correction due on the dollar index in the near future. The bullish D1 candle run has been insane, I’d like to see a correction to around 102.000 after testing 104.000 territory. Barriers in the interim sit at 103.300 support and 103.000 support respectively, simple resistance to support and support to resistance as we break and move beyond certain trading zones.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade_Simple_FX
Market News Report - 20 October 2024While it was a mild week, the US dollar was again among the strongest currencies. Other ones include CAD and GBP, while NZD was among the weakest. Let's dive into what we should expect for each major forex market in our latest fundamental report. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: bearish. Despite a recent 50 basis points (bps) rate cut, the Fed may not need to cut rates as aggressively going forward. This is partly due to positive job numbers and earnings data that exceeded expectations. Still, the central bank has signalled the potential for two 25 bps drops by the end of this year. Meanwhile, a 50 bps cut has pretty much been priced out, with STIR (short-term interest rate) markets seeing a 14% chance of a hold next month. The Dixie continues to head north after weeks of ranging around the key support area at 100.157. We have spoken about a potential technically-driven retracement (despite the bearish fundamentals). Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348, which will remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The latest strong NFP report has raised expectations for a 25 bps rate cut (instead of 50 bps), which is giving USD a boost in the near term. So, there is no extreme dovish pricing anymore. While the bearish bias remains, the dollar may gain amid a broad pullback. This idea could prove even more relevant if Donald Trump wins the upcoming election. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: bearish. The STIR markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate last week. However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth). Also, the past week saw weaker economic data across various European nations. Finally, short-term interest rate markets have indicated an 83% chance of a rate cut in December. The euro has finally made its bearish intention known on the charts after spending weeks near the resistance at 1.12757. It is close to the key support at 1.07774. Long-term outlook: bearish. The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors. Furthermore, a threat of a trade tariff with Trump could be negative. Couple this with potential USD strength, and we have a clear bearish bias for the euro. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) kept the interest rate steady in its recent meeting. Still, the language indicates they need to be “restrictive for sufficiently long.” Also, the central bank's higher-ups stressed "a gradual need" to cut rates. As with the ECB, the central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. So, it makes more sense to be dovish than hawkish. Not long ago, Governor Bailey hinted that "aggressive rate cuts" were possible if inflation went lower. We mentioned that the current retracement may be the start of a more serious bear move. So far, that's what the pound is experiencing. The nearest key support is at 1.26156, while the resistance target is 1.34343. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Sequential rate cuts by the BoE may soon be a reality. Also, weak CPI, labour, or GDP data should be expected to back up the bearish bias. However, the central bank hopes for lower service inflation, which may provide relief. Another interesting point is the latest CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) report, showing that GBP longs have been stretched to the upside. So, bullishness should be limited at some point. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. The primary bullish catalyst is the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision to hike the interest rate. STIR markets expect a hold at the next meeting but a hike at the start of next year. ​​Governor Ueda of the BoJ noted that despite domestic economic recovery, recent exchange rate movements have reduced the upside risk of inflation (which has been on an upward trajectory). All of this backs up the potential for a rate hold or hike. The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. Lower US Treasury yields are one potential bullish catalyst for the yen (the opposite is true). Inflation pressures and wage growth would also provide upward momentum. We should also consider that the dovish tendencies of other major central banks and worsening US macro conditions are JPY-positive Still, as a slight downer, near-term inflation risks subsiding (according to the BoJ) reduce the urgency for a rate hiking cycle. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the interest rate unchanged during the Sept. 25 meeting. They further stated that they "did not explicitly consider rate hikes" for the future, which is a marginally dovish statement. The Aussie remains sensitive to China’s recent economic woes. However, high iron prices have supported the former. Finally, recent positive unemployment data gives a base case for a hold in the next RBA interest rate meeting. After failing to break the 0.69426 resistance level several times, the Aussie has retraced noticeably from this area. Still, this market is bullish and far from the major support level at 0.63484. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. While the RBA hasn’t ruled anything out, the central bank isn’t explicitly suggesting rate hikes in the future. It’s crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area. However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, meaning it is exposed to the economies and geopolitics of other countries, especially China. New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: bearish. Unsurprisingly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZD) cut its interest rate by 50 bps recently and sees further easing ahead. This affirms another cut next month of potentially the same magnitude. Furthermore, the central bank is confident that inflation will remain in the target zone, adding more impetus to the bearish bias. Due to the rate cut, the Kiwi has been on a downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63696. Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498. Long-term outlook: bearish. The central bank's latest dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) firmly puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' They also revised the OCR rates lower and signaled steady winnings in the inflation battle. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of Canada (BoC) recently dropped the interest rate to 4.25%, as anticipated by the markets for some time. Further cuts in the next few meetings are on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%. Unemployment, weak economic growth, and mortgage stress are the key drivers for this dovishness. Watch out for the new interest rate for CAD on Wednesday, where a 50 bps cut is predicted (77% chance). While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is weaker on the charts. USD/CAD is making a steady uptick towards the key resistance at 1.39468, while the key support lies down at 1.33586. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point. Governor Macklem himself stated a while ago that it's reasonable to expect more cuts in the future. Any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data will send CAD lower. Also, mortgage stress remains a major factor in this interest rate policy, and the BoC will have to cut rates to alleviate it. Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) recently. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters. The central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates." Finally, the September CPI came in weak at 0.8%, against the expected year-on-year 1.1%. Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions, such as a worsening Middle East crisis. USD/CHF has just broken out of the range (but only just) discussed in our last few reports. While remaining largely bearish, this market could return closer to the major support level at 0.83326 or climb its way to the higher major resistance level at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc. The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. STIR markets are currently pricing a 23% chance of a 50 bps cut at the December meeting. On the other hand, 'safe haven flows' and geopolitical risks can be positively supportive of the currency. As with other central banks, inflation is a crucial metric in the SNB's policy rates. Conclusion In summary: This week's main high-impact news event is Wednesday's CAD interest rate decision. Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain unchanged from the last few weeks. As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI
DXY Will Move Lower! Sell! Here is our detailed technical review for DXY. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 103.495. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 102.219. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYShort
by SignalProvider
1
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance level which acts as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 103.33 1st Support: 102.83 1st Resistance: 103.98 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
BRICS Summit 2024: Big Promises, Little Impact?Russia will host the BRICS summit in Kazan from October 22-24, where President Vladimir Putin will push for a new SWIFT-like payment system to challenge US dollar dominance. The group, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE, with further expansion on the table as nations like Thailand and Myanmar express interest in joining. As we lead into the BRICS summit, the Dollar Index (DXY), may be “overstretched” according to DBS’ FX analyst Philip Wee, after appreciating more than 3% this month. However, Jim O’Neill, the former UK treasury minister who coined the term "BRICS" back in 2001 remains skeptical about BRICS. He argues that while the summits generate media attention, they rarely produce meaningful outcomes. O’Neill also points to ongoing tensions between key members China and India that get in the way of the block’s aspirations.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets