[DXY] Ranging or breakdown ?With both FED & BOJ has laid out the rates, TVC:DXY now need to decide, up to the top channel fence, or breaking down the nearest one, the bottom floor. Let's see.
USDX trade ideas
DXY hit the 1W MA200 for the 1st time in 8 months! Will it hold?The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) following the Fed's -0.50% Rate Cut, hit on Wednesday its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 8 months (since the week of January 10 2024). This is obviously the strongest Support on a long-term basis and technically should attract the first wave of buying pressure.
However, the multi-year pattern, being a Channel Up, suggests that given some more weeks it should break and go for a Higher Low (blue Arc). As you can see on this pattern, every time the 1W MA200 was tested during a Bearish Leg, it broke.
The last two Bearish Legs initially made a dead-cat-bounce and then priced the Low just above the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. The 1W RSI in particular provides very useful insight on this, as on the first oversold (below 30.00) Low it makes the bounce and then on the second RSI low, which is a Higher Low i.e. a Bullish Divergence, the price bottoms and rebounds long-term.
As a result, with the 1W RSI bouncing on the 30.00 oversold barrier, we expect the price to rebound for a few weeks and then resume the downtrend towards the 1.236 and the bottom of the multi-year Channel Up. Our Target is 97.000.
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DXY: Local Correction Ahead! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 100.890
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
Bullish Bitcoin/Crypto and Bearish DXY Analysis
In this scenario, a bearish DXY aligns with a bullish outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, which has historically shown an inverse correlation. Let's break down the analysis based on this perspective:
1. Bearish DXY Outlook
Support Breakdown Risk: The DXY is currently sitting at the strong support zone between 100-102 (blue area). However, if the U.S. Dollar Index fails to hold this support and breaks downward, the next key level of support lies around 98, as indicated by the descending yellow diagonal arrow. A breakdown below 100 could accelerate the DXY's decline, signaling a bearish trend.
Lower Highs and Potential Reversal: The overall trend shows the DXY making lower highs, and the potential move downward suggests weakening dollar strength, which is bearish for the DXY.
Timing of Key Breakdown: If the DXY does not hold this support, the next major support line, marked for Mon 07 Oct 24, could come into play, driving the index lower toward 98.
2. Bullish Bitcoin and Crypto Market
Inverse Correlation with DXY: Historically, Bitcoin and the crypto market have an inverse relationship with the DXY. When the U.S. dollar weakens (bearish DXY), capital tends to flow into risk assets like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Accumulation at Key Levels: As the DXY enters a bearish phase, Bitcoin’s price (blue line) shows strong upward momentum, with the potential for further gains. The green arrows highlight past instances where the DXY’s decline correlated with Bitcoin's strong bullish moves. The same pattern is projected now, with the blue arrow indicating a possible strong bullish leg for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Projection: With the DXY breaking below support and entering a bearish trend, Bitcoin could aim for new highs as investor sentiment shifts away from traditional safe-haven assets (like the U.S. dollar) and into riskier, high-reward assets such as crypto.
Crypto Market Strength: A weakening dollar typically leads to increased interest in alternative assets, such as gold, Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies. As inflation concerns rise and the dollar loses strength, the crypto market becomes an attractive hedge, especially for institutional investors.
3. Long-Term Projection
Bitcoin’s Upper Trendline: The chart shows a potential continuation of Bitcoin’s bullish rally if the DXY continues its decline. If Bitcoin follows historical trends, breaking through the current resistance levels, we could see significant price appreciation, pushing Bitcoin towards new highs.
Altcoins Surge: As Bitcoin leads the charge, the broader crypto market typically follows. A bearish DXY could spur interest in altcoins, DeFi, NFTs, and other crypto sectors, as capital flows into the space looking for high returns amid a weakening U.S. dollar.
Conclusion:
Bearish DXY: If the DXY fails to hold support and moves lower, the U.S. dollar’s decline will be a strong catalyst for a bullish Bitcoin and broader crypto market rally.
Bullish Crypto: This scenario points to a favorable environment for Bitcoin and altcoins, driven by weakening dollar strength and increasing interest in cryptocurrencies as an alternative asset class. Expect significant gains in Bitcoin and major crypto assets if the DXY breaks down from its current levels.
Dollar Made a Break and retestDollar after the back to back news this week price is still dropping. We are still in a bearish trend. I will be looking for signs of entry on the bearish side for all USDXXX pairs and XXXJPY pairs.
Market insights 101As anticipated, The DXY made a move above our trend line taking liquidity with it also. Price didn't make this move as soon as we expected that's why it is good to remain liquid, adapting to current market conditions and not forcing price to move as you wish. However we did have a bias and price ended up respecting just that. Price took out liquidity in the market and from here we can expect price to move in its intended direction.
DXY DailyLosing 99.5 will be the fuel needed for crypto. Rate cuts will certainly help on this, fingers crossed.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
DXY is sitting at an important KL (Key Level) at around 100.600 . On a bigger timeframe we are still bullish on dollar.
Several factors support Dollar strength:
The Dollar is expected to maintain its strength for some time.
Still, some risks could lead to further appreciation, including Euro area concerns, changes in Chinese currency policy, and how markets interpret US growth prospects.
Interest rates:
With yesterday’s interest rate decisions (50BPS) we saw DXY spike down . We do have to keep in mind if interest rate cuts continue, we might turn bearish on DXY, resulting in less demand in U.S. Dollar and more demand in stocks and gold .
If however, we continue to the upside with DXY, it will confirm our XAUUSD sells that we have given the analysis for.
Keep in mind:
The aim of raising of the Fed's rates is to adjust the inflation level to a target value. Interest rate hike may have a positive effect on dollar quotes, while lowering can be seen as negative for the US dollar.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
DXY: Some more downside is expected. Is it a buy after?The U.S. Dollar Index is on strong bearish levels on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 36.538, MACD = -0.480, ADX = 39.006) as it is extending the Channel Down with a rejection today exactly on its top. The very same Channel Down was seen last October-December (2023) and declined by -6.25% before recovering. The buy signal was a DB (double bottom) on the 1D RSI.
Consequently we will remain bearish on DXY (TP = 99.550) and only buy after we get a clear rebound (around -6.25%) and a DB on the RSI.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Interest Rates Dropped to 5%!The fact the Federal Reserve & U.S. government cut interest rates by 50BPS, more then they were expected to, goes to show that interest rates have done MORE DAMAGE then they were suppose to, to the economy.
Now the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50BPS, is them trying to put on a show to the public & saying “look we know the damage has been done by us, but we are trying to rectify it by making rates lower”
GET READY FOR A GLOBAL FINANCIAL & ECONOMY CRASH IN 2025!
DXY udate for day trader ( 1 H timeframe )hello dear trader
dxy after fund rate engulfed privious low after than retest flag limit area and collect liQidity ... after collect some voloume , i think dxy ready for below the 100 ....
good luck
Post FOMC analysis19th September
DXY: Currently at 100.60, could bounce to retest bearish trendline. If 100.60 broken, could test 100 round number.
NZDUSD: Could trade higher, look for reaction at 0.63 resistance, Buy 0.6255 SL 20 TP 40
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6780 SL 30 TP 70
GBPUSD: Sell 1.3250 SL 30 TP 90 (BoE Rates Decision pending)
EURUSD: Sell 1.1130 SL 25 TP 50
USDJPY: Sell 142 SL 45 TP 90
USDCHF: Sell 0.8430 SL 20 TP 40
USDCAD: Sell 1.3560 SL 30 TP 40
Gold: Currently at 2585 could trade higher to 2600 and even form new ATH
DeGRAM | DXY attempt to get a fix in the channelThe DXY is moving near an ascending channel above the trend lines.
The upper trend line has already acted as a rebound point.
Each time approaching the support level, the price bounced.
We expect the price to rise after consolidation in the channel.
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DXY analysis after FED 50bpsWith econs data in focus well see a significant shift after data release today
“Dollar Index Declines After Fed Decision”The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) cut its policy rate for the first time in four years, lowering it by 50 basis points to the range of 4.75%-5.00%. Following this decision, the decline in the dollar index accelerated. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the decision shows increased confidence in maintaining a strong labor market while ensuring moderate growth and bringing inflation down to 2% sustainably. Additionally, the Fed lowered its federal funds rate projection for the end of this year from 5.1% to 4.4%, suggesting the possibility of a further 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed this year.
Technically, if the index falls below the 100.50 level, the 100.0 and 99.50 levels can be considered support. However, if it recovers and moves above the 101.0 level, resistance can be observed at the 101.85 and 102.70 levels.
DXY: Strong Bearish Bias! Sell!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 100.474
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
double three (zz + expanded flat)Federal reserve just cut interest rate 50 bbps for the first time in four years. But I am still bullish on DXY. I observed a double three pattern, a zigzag followed by an expanded flat as a corrective wave 2 as depicted in the chart.
Let's see if DXY can follow up with a i, ii setup.
U.S. Dollar Index Upward Price Movement Until End of September?Here’s my analysis of the chart: I anticipate an upward movement in the U.S. Dollar Index until the end of September. Please note, this is based solely on time analysis, so the bar charts displayed do not predict future price levels.
The trade is still in its early stages, making it relatively low-risk. However, if the price falls below the current candle (first vertical line), this analysis will no longer be valid.
Let's see how it plays out, but be prepared to reassess if the price action invalidates the analysis.
SpaceIchimoku
DXY: Strong Bullish Bias! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 101.093
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
DXY Will Go Up From Support! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 100.719.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 101.379 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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