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USD INDEX - My 5 Cents @ Year End20SMA - Blue 200SMA - Pink Key Confluence Areas - Grey Lines Market Structure Support/Resistance - Green/Red Dashed Lines Dear Friends, your interest motivates me: If you find my analysis helpful, please boost and follow me for future analysis at your service. How I see it: Upwards we see Range Bound Confluence of Resistance + Overlapping Resistance above 108... ** WILL WE BREAK OUT THIS YEAR? ** WILL WE RESPECT THE RANGE AGAIN? I deeply appreciate you taking the time to study my analysis and point of view. KEYNOTE: The most important to consider always, before you leap: When you jump in the river, make sure you are swimming "WITH" the current!!
TVC:DXY
by ANROC
DXY Will Move Lower! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for DXY. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 106.561. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 106.415 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYShort
by SignalProvider
1
Understanding the U.S. Dollar IndexThe U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is a critical tool for traders, investors, and economists alike, as it provides a measure of the overall strength of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of major foreign currencies. The image shared highlights the core elements of the U.S. Dollar Index: its history, composition, calculation, and its economic implications. In this article, we’ll delve into what the USDX is, why it matters, and how you can trade or invest in it. What Is the U.S. Dollar Index? The U.S. Dollar Index is a numerical representation of the U.S. dollar's value compared to a basket of foreign currencies. It serves as a benchmark to measure the dollar's strength in the global economy. The USDX is calculated using exchange rates and reflects the dollar’s performance against six major world currencies. The index is maintained and traded in financial markets, offering investors a way to speculate on or hedge against changes in the dollar’s value. A rising USDX indicates a stronger dollar, while a declining USDX signals a weakening dollar. History of the USDX The U.S. Dollar Index was established in **1973** by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) shortly after the Bretton Woods Agreement was dissolved. This agreement, which pegged global currencies to the U.S. dollar and gold, collapsed, leading to floating exchange rates. The initial value of the USDX was set at 100. Over the years, the index has fluctuated based on the economic conditions, monetary policies, and geopolitical events influencing the U.S. dollar’s demand and supply. Its all-time high was approximately 164.72 in 1985, while its lowest was 70.698 in 2008. Why Does the Strong Dollar Matter? A strong dollar impacts the global economy in numerous ways: 1. Trade Impacts: A stronger dollar makes U.S. exports more expensive for foreign buyers, potentially reducing demand for American goods. Conversely, imports into the U.S. become cheaper, which can benefit American consumers. 2. Economic Implications: For emerging markets, a strong dollar increases the burden of dollar-denominated debt, as countries must repay loans in a currency that has gained value. 3. Investment and Market Effects: A rising dollar tends to attract foreign investors to U.S. assets like Treasury bonds, increasing demand for the currency further. However, it can also pressure commodities like gold and oil, which are priced in dollars. Understanding the dollar’s strength through the USDX helps businesses, traders, and governments make informed financial and economic decisions. What Does the Dollar Index Tell You? The Dollar Index provides insights into: Market Sentiment: A rising USDX signals increased confidence in the U.S. economy, while a declining index indicates weaker sentiment. Monetary Policy Expectations: The USDX often moves in anticipation of Federal Reserve policy changes, such as interest rate hikes or cuts. Global Economic Health: The index indirectly reflects how the global economy interacts with the dollar, as it is the world’s primary reserve currency. Traders use the USDX as a tool to gauge the relative strength of the dollar in real-time, helping them make informed decisions in currency, commodity, and equity markets. What Currencies Are in the USDX Basket? The U.S. Dollar Index measures the dollar’s performance against a **basket of six major currencies**, each with a specific weight in the calculation: 1. Euro (EUR)~57.6% weight 2. Japanese Yen (JPY)~13.6% weight 3. British Pound (GBP)~11.9% weight 4. Canadian Dollar (CAD)~9.1% weight 5. Swedish Krona (SEK)~4.2% weight 6. Swiss Franc (CHF)~3.6% weight The dominance of the euro in the basket highlights the close economic ties between the U.S. and the European Union. Other currencies in the basket represent major global economies and trading partners. How to Invest or Trade in the Dollar Index There are several ways to invest in or trade the USDX: 1. Futures and Options: The USDX is traded as a futures contract on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Futures and options on the USDX allow traders to speculate on the dollar’s movements or hedge against currency risks. 2. Currency Pairs: Trading major currency pairs, such as EUR/USD or USD/JPY, offers indirect exposure to the dollar index. For instance, if the USDX is rising, the EUR/USD pair is likely falling. 3. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs): Some ETFs track the performance of the U.S. Dollar Index, providing an accessible way for investors to gain exposure without directly trading futures. 4. Forex Market Spot forex trading allows traders to speculate on the dollar’s strength against specific currencies in the USDX basket. 5. Commodities: The USDX indirectly affects commodities like gold and oil. A strong dollar typically puts downward pressure on these assets, offering additional trading opportunities. Limitations of the U.S. Dollar Index While the USDX is a valuable tool, it has some limitations: Narrow Currency Basket: The index only measures the dollar against six currencies, primarily from developed markets. It doesn’t account for emerging market currencies like the Chinese yuan, which are increasingly important in global trade. Euro Dominance: The euro’s large weighting means the index heavily reflects the euro-dollar relationship, potentially overlooking other factors influencing the dollar’s global strength. Static Composition: The basket has not been updated since its creation, which means it doesn’t fully reflect changes in the global economic landscape over the past decades. Ending thoughts The U.S. Dollar Index is a vital tool for understanding and navigating the global financial markets. By tracking the dollar’s performance against a basket of major currencies, the USDX provides insights into market sentiment, monetary policy expectations, and economic trends. Whether you’re an investor, trader, or policymaker, understanding the USDX can help you make informed decisions. If you’re looking to invest or trade the dollar index, there are multiple avenues to explore, from futures contracts and ETFs to spot forex trading. However, always consider the limitations of the index and ensure your strategies account for its biases and composition. The U.S. dollar remains the cornerstone of the global economy, and the USDX is your window into its strength and influence.
TVC:DXYEducation
by pow_removetheguesswork
Bearish Divergence Between DXY US Dollar Index & RSIThe DXY is butting up against a zone of significant resistance, and a bearish divergence between the index and the relative strength index suggests that buying pressure is fading here. A sharp correction in the dollar could have significant implications for gold, silver and other commodities. Today we saw a rally in the DXY on a safe haven bid following news of escalation in Ukraine. If a major conflict between NATO and Russia really does break out, investors may learn the hard way that fiat currencies in fact do not make the best safe havens.
TVC:DXYShort
by smartsilverstacker
U.S. Dollar IndexHello to all dear traders. I apologize for the delay in presenting the analyses, as I have transitioned my analysis to the daily timeframe, which has allowed me to examine the market with greater depth and precision. Currently, we are examining the chart of the DXY (Dollar Index). Based on previous forecasts, the significant growth we are witnessing in this chart was entirely anticipated. In the prior price leg, where we observed the formation of a Change of Character (CHoCH), my strategy focused on the order block extreme, and as we can see, the upward momentum of the dollar has continued, bolstered by relevant news. It is expected that we will witness a Break of Structure (BOS) on the daily timeframe, followed by a price correction. The key point is that if the price reaches the specified order flow or order block, these levels represent excellent entry points for buying the dollar. Therefore, it is advisable to look for a timely entry for a buying opportunity at this juncture, which I have clearly marked on the chart. I anticipate that the dollar will continue to rise; however, entering a trade will only be viable if the price reaches these target levels. This chart has been presented in a very clear and understandable manner, designed for mapping and capitalizing on opportunities for you, esteemed traders. Wishing you all great success! Thank you very much, Fereydoon Bahrami "A retail trader in the Wall Street trading center (Forex)."
TVC:DXY
by fereydoon1199
1
US DollarLooking at historical events, Specially heading into 2025 as a year where we could see sharp declines in the stock market as rebalancing commences early in 2025. The US dollar has enjoyed a lot of support over the last couple of months. and could still enjoy more, but as a long term investor and position trader im not interested in buying USD at these levels as COT index is showing imminent signs of reversals coming. Coupled with Seasonality it could happen in December. ill await clearer shifts on lower time frames for an entry. retail traders also are 80% long EURUSD, the moment they start selling i will buy and hold.
TVC:DXYShort
by Mike_SnD
A Brief 57-Year History of the DollarThe year 1971, when the Bretton Woods system ended, marked a period where the dollar's value followed a volatile trajectory of ups and downs—until 2008. The global financial crisis was another turning point, and since then, the dollar has been steadily appreciating. This trend is expected to continue, at least until another significant pivot point emerges. Will such a critical turning point occur during Trump’s second term? That remains to be seen. However, one thing is clear: the dollar seems poised to keep gaining value.
INDEX:DXYLong
by Trader_Geist
DXYI'm considering a long trade on DXY. I'll enter after liquidity is taken out during the Asian session, during the London session. An upward impulse is expected after the imbalance and key zones are filled. An important aspect will be the opening of the New York session, where I anticipate a markup on the asset. My ultimate target is the Asian session high! IMPORTANT! to note that this trade is risky, with a 50/50 probability. Therefore, entry should be made with 1% of the deposit and a tight stop-loss placed beyond the imbalance.
TVC:DXYLong
by TraderNo007_
DXY before the last NFP of 2024The final wave of a 5-wave impulse is on the cards for the DXY which will allow the index to move towards the 61.8% Fibo retracement at 109. The DXY has been range bound between 100 and 107 for more than a year and we may finally see a break out of this range. The DXY is currently testing the blue downward trend line that now serves as a neckline and a failed break below 105.38 will be an early signal of another move higher in the DXY. A break below 105 will however invalidate the idea. Technically the 50-day MA cross above the 200-day MA is dollar positive however there is a strong degree of bearish divergence on the RSI indicator which makes the move not as clear cut as I would have liked. All eyes on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls print!
TVC:DXYLong
by Goose96
Market News Report - 01 December 2024After weeks of dominance, the dollar finally took a backseat. The Japanese yen was among the most bullish forces. It found strength against markets like CAD and AUD, aligning with its bullish fundamentals. Let's explore if there are notable changes in our latest market news report. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. The Fed recently cut the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) from 5.00% to 4.75%. While labour data was down recently, this was mainly due to the impact of US hurricanes and labour disputes with Boeing. While some mildly positive economic data exists, the bearish bias remains for USD, with short-term interest rate (STIR) market pricing indicating a 67% chance of a 25 bps cut in December. Still, FOMC minutes last week suggest the Fed remains data-dependent. Keep an eye on the new Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment announcement on Friday. While the Dixie is still quite bullish, it retraced slightly from the new key resistance at 108.071. Meanwhile, the key support is far away at 100.157, which will remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: bearish. A noteworthy point about the recent Fed meeting is the removal of the line "the committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2 percent." Finally, Powell also clarified that the US elections won't affect their future decisions. The big takeaway is that the Fed will see how fast/far they should cut rates. Jobs data this week is key to deciding the next near-term directional move for the dollar. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate last month. However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth). STIR markets have indicated an 87% chance of a rate cut in December (also backed by the ECB's Stournaras). Also, we have seen weaker economic data across various European nations. Another concern is that a protectionist US policy (with Donald Trump winning the recent election) could impact trade in the Eurozone, suggesting the potential for lower growth due to tariff risks. The euro has clearly broken the key support we mentioned previously (1.07774) - the next area of interest is 1.03319. Meanwhile, the key resistance remains far higher at 1.12757. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors. However, any improvements in economic data (according to the ECB) would be a turnaround. The threat of a fresh trade tariff with Trump is hugely influential and may cause the euro to be sold off on tariff fears. Still, negative US moves would likely result in a pullback for EUR. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) recently cut the bank rate from 5% to 4.75% as anticipated. The language indicates they need to be restrictive and a "gradual approach" to policy easing. Governor Bailey also highlighted that rates will probably be brought down cautiously. Despite this, we saw a slight pullback in GBP/USD. This may be in line with the BoE's slightly hawkish attitude due to recent inflationary pressures. Another contributor is the latest Consumer Price Index print, which came in hotter than expected on November 20. Like other dollar pairs, GBP/USD has looked bearish for some time. After breaching the key support at 1.26165, the next area of interest is now 1.22994. Meanwhile, the resistance target is far away at 1.34343. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The BoE sees inflation (its main concern currently) as being stickier for longer. Bailey wishes to see it down to 2%. This is a moderately hawkish hint. Overall, inflation data (and other economic) data will be important for the British pound. Finally, STIR markets indicate an 84% chance of a rate hold by the BoE later this month. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently kept the interest rate the same at the end of October. So, our outlook remains largely unchanged. However, a rise in USD/JPY could raise the possibility of the BoJ's intervention. At the last BoJ interest rate announcement, Ueda stated that hikes would continue if the central bank's projections weren't realised. Last week, he backed up this sentiment by saying that keeping real interest rates too long for too long would lead to higher inflation, which is a hawkish suggestion. The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. However, there has been a noticeable retracement amid this move). Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The BoJ's tightening stance and inflationary pressures give the yen a bullish sentiment. The central bank wishes to avoid further JPY weakness, with Finance Minister Kato warning against 'excessive FX moves.' We should also keep an eye on US Treasury yields, as rising yields could derail JPY upside. Conversely, any declines in US yields would likely provide a major boost to the yen. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: neutral. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its interest rate unchanged recently, marking the eighth consecutive hold. They emphasised that policy will remain restrictive until inflation moves toward its target. The RBA also lowered its GDP forecasts while the labour market remains tight. The dollar remains dominant against the Aussie, as AUD/USD looks to test the key support at 0.63484. Meanwhile, the key resistance level lies far ahead at 0.69426. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. While the RBA suggests that rate hikes won't be necessary going forward, it hasn't ruled anything out. Governor Bullock recently mentioned that they would act if the economy dropped more than desired. It’s crucial to be data-dependent on the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area. Also, the Australian dollar is procyclical, with particular exposure to China's geopolitics. Trump's recent win in the US election means the prospect of trade tariffs with China has increased (potentially causing headwinds for AUD). New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its interest by 50 bps to 4.25% as expected last week, the same as in October. It also signalled further reductions for early next week while remaining confident that inflation will remain in the target zone. However, risks of increased inflation volatility and relative price unpredictability remain. The Kiwi has been on a notable downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63790. NZD/USD isn't far from the key support at 0.57736, reaffirming this bearish market. Long-term outlook: bearish. Governor Orr indicated in the last RBNZ meeting that a 50 bps cut in February 2025 is possible. So, we can rule out a rate hike, more so with potential trade tariff issues between China and the United States. These can cause headwinds for NZD and AUD. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of Canada (BoC) unsurprisingly delivered a 50 bps cut a few weeks ago. Further cuts remain on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%. The BoC is signalling victory over inflation due to the cuts, with Governor Macklem suggesting that they would probably cut further until they achieve the optimal low inflation. In their words, 'stick the landing.' Overall, the bias remains bearish - expect strong rallies in CAD to find sellers. While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is the weakest on the charts. USD/CAD has finally exceeded the key resistance at 1.39468. While the new target in the meanwhile is 1.41058, let's see what happens around the former area in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the key support lies far down at 1.34197. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with STIR markets indicating a 67% chance of a 25 bps cut and a 33% chance of a 50 bps cut in December. The Bank of Canada has recognised the lower economic growth, and Macklem wishes to see this improve. Furthermore, any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data would send CAD lower. Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes - the opposite is true. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) recently. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters. The October CPI was weak at 0.6% (another poor result, as for the September data). Finally, the central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates," further stating that the SNB would be ready to implement this if needed. Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like a worsening Middle East crisis. USD/CHF keeps rising steadily towards the major support level at 0.83326, while the major resistance level is at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc. The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. The SNB aims for neutral rates between 0 and 0.50% (currently at 1%). However, STIR markets only see a 30% chance of a 50 bps cut and 70% chance of a 25 bps cut next month. Conclusion In summary: The US dollar still remains one of the key currencies to watch, given the recent elections and Trump's potential to affect trade relations with the likes of Australia and New Zealand. However, the Japanese yen is another considerable option due to its recent bullish momentum. The US NFP and unemployment rate are the main high-impact economic events to watch for this week. Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain largely unchanged from the last few months. The only exception is the Australian dollar, where we have changed from 'weak bullish' to 'neutral.' As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI
The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) appears bearish on the 4-hour chart,The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) appears bearish on the 4-hour chart, currently trading downward within a channel. The recent rejection near 106.750 has reinforced resistance, and the price is trending lower, nearing 105.650, which aligns with key support levels. If this bearish momentum continues, the index could aim for stronger support zones, such as 105.500 or below, with the potential for further declines. Breaking these levels may trigger more selling pressure. On the other hand, a rebound from support could temporarily stall the bearish trend. Monitoring volumes and macroeconomic catalysts, like interest rate decisions or major economic data, will be crucial for confirming the next direction.
TVC:DXY
by TRADE_CENTER_1
DXY. Technical analysisHello traders and investors! The seller has returned the price to the range on the weekly timeframe (see the related post). The price is now below the upper boundary of the range at 106.952. We are monitoring the 106.083 level. If the buyer breaks through and defends it, it would be reasonable to look for buying opportunities. However, if the seller defends this level, selling will be the priority. You can use the 4-hour timeframe for monitoring. Good luck with your trading and investments!
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by AlexeyWolf