DXY IndexPair : DXY Index
Description :
Completed " 1234 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
RSI - Divergence
Fibonacci Level - 78.60%
Double Bottom as an Corrective Pattern in Long Time Frame
Demand Zone
USDX trade ideas
EUR/USD Selloff CaseGood morning everyone.
Going to try to keep this short and sweet.
DXY, as of about 0830EST, broke through all hourly Camarilla resistance levels. The last being 104.560. The next targets would be at 104.795, 104.833, 104.871, and 104.987.
EUR/USD has broken through first 1HR/4HR support level at 1.0782. Next two levels would be 1.0772, and 1.0762. After these levels are broken. I'll look to trade to 1.07.
Going into this selloff, we were in a bearish symmetrical triangle.
Though I do not rely heavily on indicators, MACD, RSI (both reg. and sto.) are aligning with this downward momentum.
Stop loss around previous around 1.0830 which the hour 200-EMA is peaking under.
The DXY upward pressure is also supported by the election anticipation of Donald J. Trump winning.
Rising 10-year yield is also support the greenback.
BOJ is not looking to hike rates this week.
Listened to a few earnings calls. Everyone is beating earnings so far. VIX is up. Feels like risk-on but keep in mind that the market made a major move up prior to any reports. Folks getting greedy and anxious going into election and big data week.
Let's see if JOLTS today, IJC on Thursaday, and NFP on Friday still show a strong labor market. If so, definitely can forget about a 50 bps cut. 94.8% priced in for a 25 bps cut and 5.2% with no cut.
Of course, like Socrates, I'm objective and humble to accept that it's possible for none of this to happen. If we get a break back about 1.0805, a level got from my brother @ThePipAssassin I'm tracking resistance levels at 1.0825, 1.0851, 1.0877, and 1.0919. If we get anywhere near these, believe I'll be looking for 1.10 because I did identify a FVG to the downtrend in DXY.
Of couse none of this is to be taken as trading or financial advice. I am simple giving you my own analysis. Trade at your own risk and I encourage everyone to do your own research and check my thoughts. Please give feedback. Going to start doing this a lot more. Follow, like, and share por favor. God is love!
DXY bullishIn my opinion
For buy,
4hr close and break above 104.1 target 104.2, 104.5 and 105.2 next high point.
For sell,
4hr close and break below 104 target 103.8, 103.6 and 103.4 low point
Good luck and trade safe
DXY: Strong Bullish Bias! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 104.315
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
DXY weekly direction for this weekLooking at the weekly in DXY ,looking for uptrend.
The PL might work as the rejection, the H1 line which you can will act as a support/resistance when market approaching that level.
If the market broke below the PL and H1 near PL. The market have shifted the direction to SELL.
Remember US election just around the corner.
Market will react to the economics events instantly.
So if any spike during this week and next week or rally towards to the upside or downside its normal during US Election season.
Beware with the trade SL when entering the trade. Always manage your RISK %.
Viper Sunday Weekly UpdateWeekly breakdown on US30, DXY, Gold, WTI and Forex pairs like USDJPY, GBPJpy
Big news week coming up with NFP
DXY Approaching a critical zone. After breaking down from its 2023 trendline, the DXY has rallied back to a convergence point at 104. This level is now a major pivot; if we start to see weakness and a breakdown through this zone into November, it could provide a much-needed tailwind for risk assets. My target on the downside is around 95-97, a level that could align with the top of the current crypto bull run.
Keeping an eye on this level is essential, especially as we move toward the anticipated Q1-Q2 cycle top in crypto. Watching for any signs of reversal or further strength here to guide broader market positioning.
DXY Will Grow! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
DXY is trading in an
Uptrend and the index
Is already making a bullish
Rebound from the rising
Support line so we will
Be expecting a further
Bullish move up
Buy!
Like, comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
DXY WIL KEEP GROWING|LONG|
✅DXY is making a rebound
From the horizontal support
Level of 104.500 while trading
In an uptrend so we are bullish
Biased and we will be expecting
A further bullish move up
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
#DXY 1DAYDXY Daily Analysis
The DXY (US Dollar Index) is currently testing a key trendline support on the daily chart and has recently formed a bullish engulfing pattern near this support level. This combination of trendline support and a bullish engulfing area suggests a potential upward reversal, creating a favorable buy setup.
Technical Outlook:
- Pattern: Trendline Support with Bullish Engulfing
- Forecast: Bullish (Buy Opportunity)
- Entry Strategy: Buy near the trendline support and bullish engulfing area
Traders may consider entering a buy position near this support area, targeting higher resistance levels. Additional confirmation from indicators like RSI indicating oversold conditions or MACD showing a bullish crossover can strengthen the signal and support the bullish outlook for the DXY.
King Dollar is Back!DXY surged this week, bolstered by strong U.S. economic data.
Durable Goods Orders for July spiked by 9.9%, far exceeding expectations, while Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3.0%, indicating robust economic activity. The labor market remained stable with Initial Jobless Claims slightly below forecasts and Continuing Claims steady.
On the downside, the housing market showed weakness, with Pending Home Sales dropping by 5.5%, reflecting challenges in that sector. Despite this, the overall data supports a bullish outlook for the dollar.
As we approach the next trading week, key support levels like 101.00-101.50 and last week’s highs will be critical areas to watch for potential long entries.
Dollar path moving forwardDollar path moving forward. Last time Trump won this is what Dollar did. I expect the same.
top on the us dollar? Dollar has hit upside targets and possibly completed a B wave ... Lets see if we get the impulse down in a c wave toward 90
Dollar To The ''MOON''Price came in extremly bullish on dollar after the US elections. We expected this as we had previously drawn out that target. I still expect dollar to move higher and grab more liquidity but maybe after a retrace. Keep in mind there is FOMC tomorrow so trade lightly.
DXY bulls are enjoying the moment. But for how long?Yes, the positivity is coming in for DXY bulls, but is it just an illusion? Stick around and let's take a quick look.
TVC:DXY
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DxySpaike then tr and fainally second spike.
Bearish pinbar in 1h so by considering first bearish spike I sell it for second leg.
DXY: Strong Bullish Bias! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 103.863$
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
DXY outlookoverall its bearish, but the bearish would take months to come into play, right now we are at a double bottom, price made a break and restest. the is means we see price buying to the upside
Market News Report - 03 November 2024While it was a mild past week, the USD was pretty strong again. Other bullish currencies include the euro and the British pound. Speaking of the latter, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate soon. Then, we had the most anticipated new Federal Funds on Thursday and the US elections.
All of this and more will be covered in our market report of the major forex pairs.
Market Overview
Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies.
US dollar (USD)
Short-term outlook: weak bearish.
Despite a recent 50 basis points (bps) rate cut, the Fed may not need to cut rates as aggressively going forward. This is partly due to recent positive job numbers and earnings data that exceeded expectations.
While the NFP data last Friday was negative, the drop was due to the impact of US hurricanes and labour disputes with Boeing.
The US elections on Tuesday may provide a notable boost for USD if Trump wins. However, we also have the new Fed interest rate two days later, where a cut is anticipated. So, the bias remains weak bearish in the near term.
The Dixie continues to head north after weeks of ranging around the key support area at 100.157. We have spoken several times about a potential technically-driven retracement (despite the bearish fundamentals).
Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348, which will remain untouched for some time.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
While there is no extreme dovish pricing anymore (thanks to some economic improvements), the Fed is still expected to cut the interest. Labour data will be another key driver in the long term for USD.
However, the upcoming US elections could be a huge redeeming factor for the greenback if Trump wins (who is highly favoured against Harris).
Euro (EUR)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The short-term interest rate (STIR) markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate last month. However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth).
Short-term interest rate markets have indicated an 84% chance of a rate cut in December. Also, we have seen weaker economic data across various European nations (although the Eurozone Gross Domestic/GDP growth was above expectations).
The euro has finally made its bearish intention known on the charts, breaking the key support at 1.07774 (but only just). We need to see how this level reacts over the coming weeks- so it's not out of the question. Meanwhile, the key resistance remains far higher at 1.12757.
Long-term outlook: bearish.
The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors.
However, any improvements in economic data (according to the ECB) would be a turnaround. Higher German inflation and stronger European growth in Q3 have saved the euro from a downward spiral.
British pound (GBP)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Bank of England (BoE) kept the interest rate steady in its recent meeting. Still, the language indicates they need to be “restrictive for sufficiently long” and the "gradual need" for decreasing the rate. STIR pricing indicates an 86% chance of a cut on Thursday
As with the ECB, the central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. So, it makes more sense to be dovish than hawkish. Not long ago, Governor Bailey hinted that "aggressive rate cuts" were possible if inflation went lower.
We mentioned that the current retracement may be the start of a more serious bear move. So far, that's what the pound is experiencing. The nearest key support is at 1.26156, while the resistance target is 1.34343.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
Sequential rate cuts by the BoE may soon be a reality due to the points discussed earlier. However, a new development is the UK budget, which has been seen as a reason for the central to proceed slowly in this regard. As usual, data remains essential going forward with GBP.
Japanese yen (JPY)
Short-term outlook: bullish.
Unlike in July this year, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept the interest rate the same last week. So, our outlook remains largely unchanged. However, a rise in USD/JPY could raise the possibility of the BoJ's intervention.
Governor Ueda of the BoJ noted not long ago that despite domestic economic recovery, recent exchange rate movements have reduced the upside risk of inflation (which has been on an upward trajectory). As recently as 31 October 2024, Ueda also stated that hikes would continue if the central bank's projections were realised.
The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
Lower US Treasury yields are one potential bullish catalyst for the yen (the opposite is true). Inflation pressures and wage growth would also provide upward momentum. We should also consider that the dovish tendencies of other major central banks and worsening US macro conditions are JPY-positive
Still, as a slight downer, near-term inflation risks subsiding (according to the BoJ) reduce the urgency for a rate hiking cycle.
Australian dollar (AUD)
Short-term outlook: weak bullish.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the interest rate unchanged during the Sept. 25 meeting. They further stated that they "did not explicitly consider rate hikes" for the future, which is a marginally dovish statement.
The Aussie remains sensitive to China’s recent economic woes, with some promising developments at times.
Finally, recent positive unemployment and labour data gives a base case for a hold in the RBA interest rate on Monday this week (priced at 97% probability according to STIR markets).
After failing to break the 0.69426 resistance level several times, the Aussie has retraced noticeably from this area. While this market looked bullish, this pullback does surprisingly indicate otherwise.
Still, we are quite far from the major support level at 0.63484, but consider the interesting dynamic with the opposite fundamentals of AUD and USD.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
While the RBA hasn’t ruled anything out, the central bank isn’t explicitly suggesting rate hikes in the future.
It’s crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area.
However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, meaning it is exposed to the economies and geopolitics of other countries, especially China.
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
Unsurprisingly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZD) cut its interest rate by 50 bps recently and sees further easing ahead. This affirms another cut next month of potentially the same magnitude.
Furthermore, the central bank is confident that inflation will remain in the target zone, adding more impetus to the bearish bias.
Due to the rate cut, the Kiwi has been on a downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63790. Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498.
Long-term outlook: bearish.
The central bank's latest dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) firmly puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' They also revised the OCR rates lower and signalled steady winnings in the inflation battle.
Canadian dollar (CAD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) unsurprisingly delivered a 50 bps cut on Wednesday. Further cuts remain on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%.
The BoC is signalling victory over inflation due to the cuts, with Governor Macklem suggesting that they would probably cut further until they achieve the optimal low inflation. In their words, 'stick the landing.'
Overall, the bias remains bearish - expect strong rallies in CAD to find sellers.
While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is the weakest on the charts. USD/CAD has finally touched the key resistance at 1.39468. This week will determine whether this area will be breached or not. Meanwhile, the key support lies far down at 1.33586.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point. The Bank of Canada has recognised the lower economic growth, and Macklem wishes to see this increase. Furthermore, any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data would send CAD lower.
Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes.
Swiss franc (CHF)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) recently. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters.
The central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates." Finally, the September CPI came in weak at 0.8%, against the expected year-on-year 1.1%.
Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like a worsening Middle East crisis.
USD/CHF has just broken out of the range (but only just) discussed in our last few reports. While remaining largely bearish, this market could return closer to the major support level at 0.83326 or climb its way to the higher major resistance level at 0.92244.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc.
The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. The SNB aims for neutral rates between 0 and 0.50% (currently at 1%). However, STIR markets only see a 20% chance of a 50 bps cut next month.
Conclusion
In summary:
The USD will certainly be the talk of the town this week due to the upcoming elections and Fed rates.
Other noteworthy economic releases include the new interest rates for the British pound and the Australian dollar.
Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain unchanged from the last few weeks.
As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
Something to think aboutHey! Here I have a chart where I have marked all the last Nonfarm Payrolls reports in 2024 and how dollar usually reacts to them.
As I can see the dollar is falling and will be heading back to South
WHY?
..because Oct 04, 2024 was reported: 254k and Nov 01, 2024 was 12k
The difference between these two reports are way too big and these elections or Trumps win can`t overlook of this!
So.. all the other currencies what have been falling due to dollars rise are now or will be reversing in the near future.. One of the best pair what I have been monitoring in the last few months is AUDUSD .. It have been falling heavily and have positioned itself for a turnaround.
Second pair what interests me is USDCAD because it usually moves with dollar in the same direction and is also very well positioned:
So is it only me or maybe there is something wrong with my eyes, but something is cooking ;)
This is not a financial advice and do Your own research and other great stuff!
Trade safe friends!
Devi
