USD Oversold on Weekly & Fibonacci Support TestWeekly charts can be helpful for tracking the motion of the ocean, or larger dominant trends. And so far in 2025, that trend has been quite bearish for the US Dollar and this showed up even with the Greenback coming into 2025 with a full head of steam.
But last week something that's somewhat rare showed up - as weekly RSI on DXY went into oversold territory for only the second time in the past seven years.
The last time this happened was August of 2024, and that was followed by the Q4 reversal in the USD. And before that - it was all the way back in early-2018, which is around when DXY marked a major low that still hasn't been traded through.
This isn't to say that RSI is an automatic indication of reversal because it's not - it's simply a lagging indicator that shows how one sided a trend has been of late. But - it does illustrate how chasing the USD lower could be a challenge here especially given how quickly bears have come on over the past couple of months.
There's also some Fibonacci support that's in-play which is very near support in the range of USD that held for a couple of years before the Q4 breakout. The 61.8% retracement of the 2021-2022 major move plots right at 98.98, which has so far held the lows in DXY.
Of interest and perhaps a bigger component of this move is whether EUR/USD will be able to establish a reversal at or around the 1.1500 handle. And that's a question mark right now, because from a data and driver perspective, it would seem that the backdrop is there as US retail sales printed with strength this week, and Chair Powell sounded somewhat hawkish around the prospect of inflation given the tariff situation. And then the ECB rate cut on Thursday sounded dovish - all factors that would normally be expected to push EUR/USD weakness.
The fact that it hasn't happened is of interest as this could be a bigger picture dominant trend showing it's hand. As I shared in the EUR/USD post which I'll link below, bulls are still in charge of the pair from a price action perspective so accordingly I would still assume bears are in-control of USD until evidence suggests otherwise. In DXY, it's the 102 level that I would like to see traded through as illustration of bulls taking control. -js
USDX trade ideas
DXY Starts the Bearish Trend!DXY Starts the Bearish Trend!
Yesterday, the DXY made a clear breakout on the daily chart from a strong structure zone located near 106.20. Since that moment, the DXY hasn't paused, leading to a weakening USD. Even if the DXY corrects, it is expected to be short-term. The DXY may test the 105.7 - 106.20 range as a maximum before a more significant bearish wave occurs.
The U.S. dollar dropped to a near three-month low against major peers on Wednesday, following the latest round of U.S. tariffs and countermeasures from Canada and China, which stoked fears of an escalating trade war.
Fears about weaker U.S. and global economic activity are driving the sell-off.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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USD Price Action Correlation with Bitcoin PriceIn the later stages of the liquidity cycle you have a devaluation of USD leading to bitcoin breaking out of its bullish trend into a parabolic trend.
-Last 2 cycles this predictive correlation leaded bitcoins breakout by 4 to 6 months.
-Current cycle DXY/Bitcoin charts look very similar to 2018
Taking this correlation into account, we could likely see the bullish trend on Bitcoin transform into a parabolic trend sometime between May and June. Meaning, we are in the final stages of a bottoming in Bitcoin at the time of this post, likely about to continue bullish momentum as we just went through significate market strain. Removing the possibilities of another Black Swan event, like a major geopolitical event but it is my belief that this was already priced in from the markets reaction just this month. This being said, there are no certainties. Things could always get worse. Time will tell, but given my aforementioned annalists, the buying opportunity at this current point is to great to ignore. Reward greatly outweighing the risk.
US exceptionalism is overwhat if te era of us exceptionalism is over.
The dollar will still be reserve curency but demand will be serverly cut, faith in the us fails and the dollar reprices back to where it was.
right now not looking great. im not call for death of the dollar just a repice back to normality
Dxy looks ike it could jsut sweep all the way back
Despite long-term support, the dollar is eyeing deeper watersAlthough the US Dollar (USD) Index has connected with a monthly support area between 98.72 and 99.67, April’s lower low at 99.01 reached levels not seen since early 2022 and price crossing below the 50-month simple moving average (SMA) at 101.91 potentially questions this support zone.
Bolstering the likelihood of additional downside in the USD are the daily and H4 charts. The former exhibits scope to reach support at 98.58 (and formed a Death Cross ), while the latter completed a bearish pennant pattern (ruptured the lower boundary), extended from 100.64 and 99.01. As you can see, H4 action is currently retesting the underside of the breached pattern’s border.
In view of the above technical surroundings, USD shorts could have some gas left in the tank.
Altseason and a Weak Dollar — Will History Repeat in 2025?The altseason of 2017 started at the same time as the U.S. dollar index (DXY) began to fall. This likely helped bring more money into the crypto market. In 2020–2021, a similar thing happened: the falling dollar was followed by a strong rise in altcoins. But that time, altseason started closer to the end of the dollar’s decline.
A weaker dollar makes risky assets like crypto more attractive. In April 2020, the total crypto market cap was around $218 billion. Today, it’s about $2.63 trillion — around 12 times bigger.
However, to start a new altseason now, the market may need a lot more cheap money than in 2020. I’m not sure if the 2025 altseason can be as strong as in the past.
Now it seems that the only way to repeat that success is if a big part of the capital moves from Bitcoin into altcoins. This would need a sharp drop in Bitcoin dominance. But this brings new questions. After the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, the ownership structure has changed. Many people now own Bitcoin through investment funds, not directly. These funds may not be very excited to invest in altcoins.
What do you think about it? Share your opinion in the comments.
USD index bearish trendThe analyst expects the correction to end when the USDX reaches a value of 101.800. This is the predicted target for the end of the "C" wave of the correction. Once the index hits 101.800 (according to this analysis), the correction is expected to be complete, and the USDX may then resume its previous (likely upward) trend.
In short: The USDX is expected to fall to 101.800 to finish a temporary price dip (correction) that's shaped like an ABC pattern.
DeGRAM | DXY dropped below 100 pointsDXY is in a descending channel between trend lines.
On the downside, the price has formed a gap and dropped below 100 pips and has already reached the lower trend line.
The chart maintains a descending structure but has already formed a harmonic pattern and a descending wedge.
On the major timeframes, the index relative strength is in the oversold zone and on the 30m Timeframe it is forming a bullish convergence.
We expect a reversal after a support retest.
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top is in for the dxygm,
this idea has been in the works for years, ever since we topped out 3 years ago. there has been quite a bit of variations of this idea, but this one right here has been my primary idea for a very long time.
initially i imagined the dxy coming up to 111-113 before topping out, and i reckon it still can, but the worst is behind us, relatively speaking.
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if my count here is correct, the dxy will begin extending down into wave c into the last days of 2025 where a major low will be put in place .
this will create a hyper-parabolic bull phase for risk assets, in conjunction with declining rates.
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if you've been waiting for a signal to buy alts
this is your signal.
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ps. view my private idea from last year via:
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How far could the USD fall?.. WATCH THE DOLLAR INDEXThe dollar is declining as US uncertainty continues and cash moves out of the US. I personally think the dollar will bounce, but how far could it fall in the meantime...
Price is testing the previous monthly horizontal resistance as support and the monthly 100 SMA. The dollar may find a bottom here. From 98 to 100 on TVC:DXY
Price may reach the monthly bullish channel support. There will likely be technical buyers in this area. From 95 to 96 on TICKMILL:DXY
Good luck!
The Great Long. DXY LIQUIDITY GAME.We knowgood old SEC days are coming, Fed Pivot is coming and a strong dollar is coming with it. But for now
Let me explain you this chart.
The chart is on a weekly timeframe but all the points of interest and liquidity can be perfectly seen on the monthly as well.
I want to show you how price moves from liquidity zone to liquidity zone touching specific areas no matter what.
Following all the red lines that are previous highs that the price made (liquidity) and the low from July 2023.
For me this chart is pure art, this is the game I look for when daytrading, but for this being on a weekly/monthly chart is just mesmerizing.
This previous -10% drop from Jan-Feb till today, comes from a very specific point in the chart.
And the +15% pump that I see, is coming from a very specific point as well.
As you can see this drop comes after liquidating several highs (sellside liquidity) on the way to a predominant imbalance that respected perfectly. What I want to say is that price follow liquidity first then touches a specific zone and respects it.
Now, we have the same scenario but now we have targeted July 2023 low and a weekly imbalance. A significant low has been triggered and a point of interest has been fille. Fed Pivot is coming and we expect to see a strong dollar in the long run.
I think this is just the perfect point in the chart for direction to shift and to start to price-in what is about to come. Last monday (Black Monday) was a climatic point.
Events bring the volatility for price to make it where it has to,
I think this is the turning point.
I hope you enjoyed the content this is NOT Financial advice. I just want this analysis and info to be here.
Dixie 41625Still in a long term uptrend and testing the lower range of its rising channel. Uncertainty may bring short term vol to the downside . But once the world understands that this is a global crisis. Dollar will once again gain strength against all others, Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona, Swiss Franc. The dollar will rip to new highs and continue its golden retrace target.
Bitcoin down, which ive said. Gold and silver continue marching up. Real things hold stable and are the only true stores of value.
Big Drop Ahead on DXY! Smart Money Already Selling!”Idea in Simple Terms:
Bias: Bearish.
Current Position: Wave B or early C.
Action Plan: Look for sell setups in the minor resistance zones.
Final Target: 92.00–94.00 area .
“Key Idea” Illustration:
This shows a simplified roadmap:
DXY is expected to rally slightly into the minor resistance.
Then, a sharp drop toward the blue demand zone, respecting the ABC correction.
Bullish IntradayPrice made a higher high at 99.836, breaking the previous lower high. This suggests a potential shift in structure to bullish. Buy Stops Above Highs: The high at 99.836 likely took out buy stops from traders expecting a breakout above 100.000. ICT emphasizes that smart money often hunts liquidity above equal highs or below equal lows. Bearish Order Block: The green box around 99.750–99.800 (before the drop to 99.500) acts as a bearish order block. This is a zone where institutional selling occurred, leading to the sharp decline. Price briefly retested this zone before rejecting it, confirming its significance. Last scenario would be, Pullback and Reversal: A likely ICT setup would be a pullback to the 99.650 pivot or the 99.500 bullish order block, followed by a move higher to target liquidity above 100.000.
How to Trade the Tariff Turmoil: Markets Now Move on HeadlinesMarkets in 2025 have become increasingly unpredictable, largely driven by one factor: tariffs. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy has shaken investor confidence and turned global markets into a rollercoaster. The key to navigating this new environment? Understand that markets are no longer just reacting to economic data—they’re reacting to headlines.
The biggest shock came on April 2, when Trump announced a 145% tariff on all Chinese imports and “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of other countries. The reaction was immediate: the S&P 500 dropped nearly 15% at its lowest point that week, and investors rushed to sell risk assets. Days later, markets sharply reversed after Trump temporarily suspended some tariffs. That sparked a rally—tech stocks soared, Apple rose 5%, and the Nasdaq gained over 2%.
But the relief was short-lived. Conflicting messages and partial rollbacks continued to send markets up and down. Earlier, on March 4, tariffs were placed on Canada and Mexico, while China’s rates were doubled. These moves led to more selling in stocks and a spike in demand for bonds. By mid-April, exemptions for electronics boosted tech names again, but overall market sentiment remained fragile.
How to Trade This New Market
The main lesson for traders and investors is clear:
We’re now in a headline-driven market. Traditional strategies that rely solely on fundamentals or economic cycles are being overshadowed by sudden political developments. Here’s how to adapt:
Stay Nimble and News-Aware
Be ready for fast moves. Market direction can flip in minutes based on a single press conference or tweet. Have alerts set for major geopolitical and tariff-related headlines. Reduce position sizes during uncertainty and avoid holding large trades through major announcements.
Rethink Your Safe Havens
The U.S. dollar is no longer acting like the safe haven it used to be. With rising fiscal concerns and volatile trade policy, investors are shifting toward alternatives. Gold and the Swiss franc (CHF) have become more reliable options during risk-off moments. If uncertainty spikes, these assets may offer better protection than the dollar.
Focus on Sectors Sensitive to Policy
Tech stocks have been among the most affected. Tariff exemptions caused sharp rallies, while new restrictions triggered big drops. If you trade sectors like tech, consumer goods, or industrials, stay especially alert for trade-related headlines.
Bottom line: In 2025, geopolitics is moving markets more than ever. The old playbook needs updating. By staying flexible, tracking headlines, and turning to traditional safe havens like gold and CHF, traders can better navigate the noise—and find opportunity in the chaos.
DXY FORECAST Q1 FY25 : zim dollar dollarBack again with a TVC:DXY doomsday post my judgement at the moment is based of the following reasonings.
📉 Tariffs & Global Trade Impact
Tariffs weaken trade activity: If the U.S. imposes tariffs, it might reduce export competitiveness and disrupt global supply chains. That can lead to lower foreign demand for U.S. dollars, putting downward pressure on the DXY.
Market uncertainty: Investors often move away from riskier assets during trade wars, but if confidence in the U.S. economy declines, they might shift into other safe havens (like gold or the Swiss franc) instead of dollars.
💰 Money Supply Contraction
Dollar scarcity effect: The contraction in M2 money supply could strengthen the dollar temporarily due to reduced liquidity. However, if the Fed eases monetary policy to counter recession fears, it might reverse the effect, weakening the dollar.
📊 Inflation & Real Interest Rates
Sticky inflation: If inflation remains above target (around 2.9%), and tariffs drive consumer prices higher, the Fed may face pressure to hold or hike interest rates — which could eventually support the dollar.
Recession signals: On the flip side, if the economy contracts, rate cuts could come into play, flooding markets with liquidity and pushing the dollar down.
in my opinion
the shrinking money supply points to future deflationary pressures, which historically support the dollar however disruptive trade policies could destabilize growth, undercutting the dollar’s strength.
If tariffs intensify and growth stalls, the dollar may stay weak or decline further despite the contracting money supply. But if the Fed stays firm on inflation control and global instability rises, the dollar could rebound as a safe haven... though this would depend on whether markets believe the U.S. can avoid a full-blown recession.
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DXY aka usd 15 Apr 2025Price is ranging within a triangle, a break below will confirm the wave count.
Following the move down from a triangle, it suggest the move down is completed and a reversal at least for the short term will proceed next.
Waiting for the break and move lower and a rejection bounce to suggest a bottom is in.
Will long usdjpy, short eurusd gbpusd etc when the above comes true
Good luck.