DXY More downside? DXY still looks strongly bearish. Expect it to return to 107.000 and continue downside movement.
Target next low at 105.420.
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ath_trades
USDX trade ideas
DXY – Key Level Broken, More Downside Ahead?Hello Folks , Long time no see .
The US Dollar Index (DXY) just broke below 106.5, and things are getting interesting. The trend has been weakening, and price is now sitting at a crucial zone.
📌 Here’s what I’m watching:
107.66 is the big resistance. If price can reclaim it, bulls might have a chance.
105.48 & 104.46 are the next major support levels.
👀 My Take:
If we stay below 106.5, I expect more downside towards 105.4 and maybe 103.3. If price bounces and reclaims 107, I’ll reconsider.
What’s your view? More downside or a bounce coming? Drop your thoughts below! 🚀🔥
🚨 Disclaimer:
Just sharing ideas here—this isn’t a trade advice . Everyone sees the market differently, and the goal is to improve our analysis, not tell anyone what to do. At the end of the day, your trades are your call, your responsibility. Trade smart! 🚀📊
Daily DXY The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently indicating the likely direction after closing below 106.965. I anticipate a move back to the 107.200-250 range before continuing its bearish swing. Several confluences support this, including the reversal point, an ascending trendline, a descending trendline, a rejection candlestick, the daily 0.382 Fibonacci level, the 4-hour 0.5 Fibonacci level, and a 4-hour order block. My target for the DXY is 106.083. As for gold, it has reached a new all-time high of 2954.944. I expect a pullback before it heads higher, potentially towards the 3000 level.
4hr DXY Chart
1hr DXY Chart
30m Gold Chart
DOLLARWE have seen that dollar is rejected on daily by a supply structure,but its coming to a strong demand floor and if that is respected we could be seeing some push in price upward due to the demand floor potency and such bullish move will affect ,,,AUDUSD,USDJPY,USDZAR,USDNZD,GBPUSD,EURUSD,USDCAD,
DXY Bearish Setup: Shorts Triggered, Targeting 106.000The US Dollar Index (DXY) is presenting a compelling short setup. After price tested the bearish breaker block yesterday we formed a channel that i see price is going to break out of and move lower with the current resistance level it is at, the DXY is showing signs of weakness.This breakdown suggests further downside momentum is likely. We are initiating short positions targeting the 106.000 level, which represents a key prior support zone. Look for continued dollar weakness towards this target.
Profit and Learn: Is the U.S. Dollar Still Money?In this episode of Profit and Learn, we dive into the future of the U.S. dollar. Is it still the undisputed king of global finance, or is its dominance fading? With rising competition from alternative assets, central bank policies, and global de-dollarization efforts, we explore whether the dollar remains the ultimate store of value, medium of exchange, and unit of account.
Join us as we break down market sentiment, policy threats, and the role of crypto and commodities in shaping the dollar’s future. Is the dollar “too strong” for its own good, or are we seeing the early signs of its decline?
💰 Is the dollar still money? Tune in to find out!
DXYAfter the liquidity removal and complete filling of the weekly FVG, a short structure begins to form on lower time frames.
Targets for decline:
Target 1 = 105
Target 2 = 103.1
Target 3 = 99
Your current most important DXY target until...The first target scenario in my mind for DXY is the Monthly fair value gap.
Market structure is now aligned for that too to play out.
- A monthly bullish gap is present below current price (inside the monthly accumulative range)
- A weekly bullish gap is being disrespected to the downside (indicating the lack of momentum, leaving this range)
- On the daily, price respects and creates bearish PD arrays.
I'm bearish on the higher timeframes, targeting the Monthly fvg, as long as price is closing below the Daily gap outlined in the chart.
(This is not to say that there are no high quality trades on the lower time frames, such as targeting the most recent daily gap to the upside)
Ok be safe byyyyyyy
possibility of correctionGiven the index's behavior within the current resistance range, it is expected that the downtrend will continue.
The dollar rebounds to a short rise of 1.618, recovers slightly The dollar rebounds to a short rise of 1,618, recovers slightly
Daily Market Outlook: BTC, DXY & Gold – Key Trade Setups (#5)The market still seems indecisive , but I’m here to find the best trade triggers for BTC and Forex. Let’s break it down.
📊 DXY – Breaking Key Support
DXY has entered a corrective phase after breaking below the 107.335 support.
🔹 Key Support Levels:
105.656 (Aligned with the 30% Fibonacci retracement)
103.367 (Aligned with the 60% Fibonacci retracement)
💡 106.602 could act as a short-term support, and if it breaks, it might be time to focus on USD pairs for potential setups.
🟡 XAU/USD (Gold) – Retesting ATH?
Gold rejected its all-time high at 2937.91 and now seems to be retesting this major resistance.
📊 What’s happening?
Gold is still in an uptrend, but momentum is fading.
Smaller bullish candles vs. larger bearish candles indicate possible exhaustion.
A correction could be healthy, but shorting remains risky in an uptrend.
📌 Trade Triggers:
✅ Long Entry: After a confirmed breakout above 2940
❌ Short Entry: Below 2879.74 (High risk due to trend direction)
📉 BTC – 95K Support Breaking?
BTC is attempting to break below the 95K support. If this level is lost, we could see a move toward 92K, 85K, and even 82K.
📌 Strategy:
✅ Short Trigger (Activated): 95245 (Yesterday’s signal)
✅ If You Missed It: Wait for a pullback or a new structure before entering.
Final Thoughts
⚠ This is a highly volatile market – avoid chasing trades and wait for confirmations.
⚠ If you’re not using risk management, these setups may not be suitable for you.
I’m Skeptic , see you tomorrow with another market breakdown! <3
DXY cool offDXY has just completed its 3rd right-translated cycle, with three minuscule waves in the last daly cycle. DXY has been hugging the top of the Bollinger Bands since October. For me, this might suggest a completed leg, which could favor Bitcoin as DXY cools off
The dollar can do it to bounce back up into the sky. The dollar can do it to bounce back up into the sky.
Stumbling DXY ahead of Trump speech and FOMC minutesIt is make or break time for my ideas on the DXY after the DXY failed to hold levels above the 50-day MA at 108. The critical support between 107.2 and 107.5 is currently being tested after the DXY closed the week 1.2% weaker at 106.8 despite US CPI rising for the 4th consecutive month coupled with a rather hawkish yet upbeat testimony before congress from Fed chair Powell, which in my opinion was all dollar positive. US CPI for the month of January came in hotter than expected at 3.0% yoy, up from 2.9% in December. Additionally, on top of Powell’s comments regarding the strength of the US economy, the ISM Manufacturing PMI completely shattered expectations after coming in stronger than expected at 50.9 for the month of January. The DXY however pulled back sharply on Thursday off the back of a weaker than expected initial jobless claims report and a stronger than expected PPI print of 3.5% yoy. The downward momentum gained further traction after core retail sales completely missed expectations, contracting 0.4% mom in January.
If the DXY does not close this week above the support at 107.2 I’ll have to invalidate my series of ideas calling for a move to 112.2. A break below my support range mentioned above will allow the DXY to slide all the way onto the support of the 38.2% FIbo retracement at 105.4 and the 200-day MA currently at 104.9. I’m not ready to invalidate the idea just yet since we may be looking at a bear trap on the DXY but I may have to get back to the drawing board after this week’s trading.
DXY Discussion of the Week My Point of view,
Beware of the uptrend line ,
DXY Reached golden fibonacci zone,
All pairs reach the rejection level.
GBPUSD, EURUSD.
DXY Weekly Chart: "The Bull-trap Breakout"The US Dollar Index is currently positioned at the top of its trading range, which has been in play since 2023 on the weekly timeframe. This presents a solid bearish setup, as the index is likely to reverse and trade back into the range.
This trade idea has been in play since September of 2024 when we were still trading at the BOTTOM of the rang e
Weekly Analysis Video: GBPUSD and EURUSDHello Traders,
In this video, I present my ideas on GBPUSD and EURUSD.
After a week of waiting, we now have a clean intent on GBPUSD.
Find out on this video.
Thanks and cheers
DXY │ S&P500 │NAS100 │GOLDFUNDAMENTAL, SENTIMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of DXY and its implication on the correlated instruments noted in the title.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Indicators:
1. Stock Market: The market is near its highest point (6118 vs. a high of 6130), indicating positive investor sentiment.
2. Unemployment Rate: At 4%, it's relatively low and shows stability compared to the previous month (4.1%), which suggests a healthy labor market.
3. Business Confidence and PMI: Business Confidence (50.9) and Manufacturing PMI (51.2) are above 50, indicating economic expansion.
4. Current Account to GDP: Improved from -3.8% to -3%, indicating a slightly better external position.
Bearish Indicators:
1. GDP Growth: Both the quarterly (2.3%) and annual growth rates (2.5%) have declined, signaling a slowing economy.
2. Non-Farm Payrolls: Significant drop from 307K to 143K, suggesting weakening job creation.
3. Inflation: Increased from 2.9% to 3% with a MoM rise of 0.5%, indicating growing inflationary pressures.
4. Balance of Trade and Current Account: The trade deficit widened from -78.94 to -98.43 USD Billion, and the current account deficit worsened, showing external sector weakness.
5. Government Budget Deficit: Increased from -5.4% to -6.2% of GDP, reflecting fiscal strain.
6. Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales: Consumer Confidence fell to 67.8 from 71.1, and Retail Sales dropped by -0.9%, suggesting weaker consumer spending.
Overall Sentiment: Bearish
Despite some positive indicators like the stock market's strength and a stable labor market, the slowdown in GDP growth, weak payroll data, rising inflation, worsening trade balance, and declining consumer confidence suggest a cautious outlook. The economy appears to be losing momentum, leading to a bearish sentiment overall.
SENTIMENTAL ANALYSIS
Large spec commercial traders are particularly bearish against the dollar ( Commitment of Traders (COT) Analysis for USD Index (ICE Futures U.S.) )
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
1. DXY
2. S&P500
3. NAS100
4. GOLD
DXYIf 109.46 DXY is broken, it will undoubtedly reach 111.61. At that point, a bearish reversal could occur
DXY - Interesting Development Post CPIDear Friends,
How I see it:
1St 1W TF Body close below 107.000 in 2 months!
Possible Resistance levels -
1) 107.330
2) 107.500
Next Support levels -
1) 105.700
2) 105.415
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.
