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US Dollar Breakdown – Don’t Fight the FloodSince the start of the year, after forming a small double top around the 110 zone, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has followed only one direction: down. So far, we’re seeing a decline that’s approaching 15%, with the index breaking multiple major support levels along the way. And judging by the current structure, there’s little reason to believe this trend will reverse any time soon. ________________________________________ 🔍 Short-Term View – Flag Break, More Losses Ahead Zooming in, we can observe that the last rally was purely corrective — a typical bear flag formation. That flag is now broken to the downside, which confirms renewed bearish pressure and suggests that further losses are likely even in the short term. ________________________________________ 🎯 What’s Next? The next major support zone sits around 95, a level that should act as a magnet if the current trend continues. As long as price stays under 100 ZONE, the outlook remains bearish and the strategy should align with that bias. ________________________________________ ✅ Strategy Going Forward The safe and logical approach now is to buy dips on major USD pairs: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD ________________________________________ 📌 Final Thought The structure is clear, momentum favors the downside, and the market is offering clean setups across multiple USD pairs. Don’t fight the trend — follow the flow. 🟢
TVC:DXYShort
by Mihai_Iacob
DXY SHORT? ## 📉 **DXY Bearish Setup for 2025 – Fed Cuts, Fiscal Strain, Technical Breakdown** ### 🧠 Thesis The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is poised to remain under pressure through the rest of 2025 due to macro, policy, and technical headwinds. With the Fed preparing for multiple rate cuts, rising fiscal imbalances, and a strong global diversification away from USD, the broader trend points **downward**. --- ### 🔍 Fundamentals Driving USD Weakness * **Federal Reserve Pivot**: 2–3 rate cuts expected in 2025 → erodes USD yield advantage. * **Surging U.S. Deficits**: Debt-to-GDP nearing 130%, undermining investor confidence. * **De-dollarization Trend**: Central banks diversifying reserves (yuan, gold, euro). * **Political Noise**: Tariff risk + weak-dollar narrative from Trump camp adds pressure. --- ### 📊 Technical Outlook (1D/1W Charts) * DXY is trading below **9/20/50 EMA**. * RSI \~43 with hidden bearish divergence. * Clear **descending channel** since mid-2024. * Key **support zone: 97.90 – 96.40**. * Below 97.90 opens path toward 96.00–95.00. --- ### 🛠️ Trade Setup | Type | Short (swing/position) | | -------- | ---------------------- | | Entry | Break below 98.00 | | Target 1 | 96.40 | | Target 2 | 95.00 | | SL | Above 99.50 | | R\:R | \~2.5:1 | --- ### ⚠️ Risks * Surprise inflation → Fed pauses cuts * Safe haven bid from geopolitical shocks * Strong upside breakout >101.00 = trend invalidation --- ### 💬 Final Note As long as DXY remains below 99.50, rallies are selling opportunities. Watch the 97.90–98.00 level — a confirmed breakdown could mark a fresh leg lower toward 95.00 by year-end. --- ### 🏷️ Tags `#DXY` `#USD` `#DollarIndex` `#Forex` `#Macro` `#Bearish` `#TradingSetup` `#ShortUSD` ---
ICEUS:DXYShort
by Hare_Krishna_1000000000
U.S. Dollar Index Loses Key Support – Crypto Bull Run Loading?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has just broken below a long-term ascending channel, which has held since 2008. After losing the key horizontal support (~100 level), DXY retested and rejected from it (red circle), confirming a potential trend reversal. The move is technically significant and hints at further downside, possibly toward the 88–90 zone or lower. This breakdown aligns with classic macro cycles, where a weaker dollar often fuels bullish momentum in risk assets, especially crypto. Historically: -DXY downtrends in 2017 and 2020–2021 coincided with major Bitcoin and altcoin bull runs. -DXY strength during 2018 and 2022 contributed to crypto bear markets. With DXY now below both horizontal and diagonal support, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market may be entering the next expansion phase, especially if the dollar continues its downward trajectory -DXY has broken below a 17 year rising channel – a macro bearish signal. -Rejection from former support turned resistance confirms breakdown. -A falling DXY historically corresponds with Bitcoin rallies and altseason expansions. -Declining dollar strength could be the fuel that propels Bitcoin past $140K and Ethereum above $6K. -A dollar bear trend may fuel total crypto market cap breakout beyond $4T+. As DXY weakens, liquidity tends to rotate into risk-on assets like crypto. This setup mirrors pre-bull run environments seen in 2017 and 2020. A structural breakdown in the dollar could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s next major leg up. Cheers Hexa
TVC:DXYShort
by HexaTrades
2
USD Snapback - Long-Term Trendline Back in-PlayThe trendline that originated in 2001 and connected to the 2020 high came in to hold the lows in July of 2023, and then again on Easter Monday. That level also held as support in June albeit temporarily, as bears grinded a sell-off into the Q2 close. In early-Q3 trade, that trendline was resistance on a few different occasions, until buyers could eventually take it out. And then last week, on the heels of Trump's threat to fire Jerome Powell, price hurriedly pulled back until, eventually, support arrived via that same trendline projection, which is shown in black on the chart. Now that trendline is back in-play as a test of today's lows. Given the persistent failure from USD bulls to fire anything more than a pullback, combined with the very clear push for USD-weakness from the current administration, it can be difficult to muster a bullish fundamental bias. But - this move had become very one-sided with that sell-off in the first-half of the year so the way that buyers respond to these support tests will be key for whether or not the currency can finally show a reversal theme for more than a couple of weeks. - js
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
U.S. Dollar (DXY) bearish?Will dollar continue its bearish momentum or will it reverse? Technical Summary DXY remains in a firm bearish trend, having dropped around 11% this year. The setup is formed by a chain of lower highs and lower lows, confirming an unrelenting downtrend. Support Level: ~97.70 Resistance Zone: 98.55–98.80 Long-Term Outlook: Bearish, unless a clear break and close over the resistance zone on the daily or weekly timeframe. Technically, the momentum indicators remain weak, and the failure to sustain rallies above the 99.00 level also contributes to downward pressure further. The market is now consolidating within a narrow range after steep selling, which suggests probable continuation if macro catalysts are favourable. Fundamental and Sentiment Drivers Several macroeconomic and geopolitical drivers are underpinning the weakening of the U.S. dollar: Federal Reserve Uncertainty: Speculation over the ultimate fate of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell under political pressure from the executive branch has severely undermined investor confidence in the central bank’s independence. This has been manifested in increased volatility and bearish pressure on the dollar. Trade Policy and Tariff Risks: Ongoing trade tensions, including the possibility of sweeping tariffs (15–20%) on Chinese and European Union goods, have created a risk premium on valuations of the U.S. dollar. Market players still fear retaliation and its effects on trade stability in the world. Fiscal Position and Credit Ratings: The US fiscal deficit, which is approaching 7% of GDP, and recent credit rating downgrades to its outlook, have set alarms ringing regarding the structure. These fiscal developments have eroded the popularity of the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, particularly with foreign investors. Global Monetary Landscape: With European Central Bank and Bank of Japan maintaining policy guidance tight, and Federal Reserve already indicating that direction for a rate cut in Q4 2025 is being eyed, the falling rate differentials still maintain pressure on the dollar. Market Outlook: Week of July 21–25, 2025 Major Geopolitical and Economic Events: DATE : Ongoing EVENT : U.S.- EU & U.S. — China Trade Negotiations. MARKET RELEVANCE : High Resolution or escalation will directly impact USD demand. DATE : Mid-week EVENT : Federal Reserve Speeches (including Powell) MARKET RELEVANCE : High Monetary policy guidance and institutional stability. DATE : July 24–25 EVENT : Jobless Claims, Flash PMIs, New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders MARKET RELEVANCE : Medium–High Labour market data, housing data, and production activity have the potential to shift rate expectations and dollar sentiment ahead of the FOMC and PCE releases. Strategic Implications Outlook: DXY remains structurally bearish in the short to medium term. Additional weakness below 98.80 and sustained closes below 97.70 would reassert downward momentum, risking a further retracement to the 96.00-95.50 region. Possible Bullish Reversal Triggers: A conclusive resolution to U.S. trade negotiations. Unexpectedly solid economic data (particularly core inflation or employment). Hawkish Fed commentary supporting policy tightening expectations. Last thoughts The U.S. Dollar Index is currently at structurally weak technical and fundamental foundations. Absent a sudden reversal of the monetary policy message or geopolitical resolution, the path of least resistance appears to remain to the lower side. Market participants need to pay special attention to upcoming economic data releases, central bank rhetoric, and trading news because any one of them could be a pivotal driver of near-term dollar behavior.
TVC:DXYShort
by NordKern
DXY Eyes Breakout – Dollar Strength Gaining GroundThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is testing its 50-day moving average on the daily chart, with bulls eyeing a potential breakout. A move above 98.75 could confirm a short-term trend reversal and open the path for further gains. Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data continues to support the greenback. Recent inflation prints, job market resilience, and solid retail spending have pushed back expectations for imminent Fed rate cuts. This shift in rate outlook provides fundamental support for the dollar. In addition, strong U.S. corporate earnings are bolstering equity markets, attracting capital flows into U.S. assets and indirectly supporting dollar demand. Rising Treasury yields, especially on the short end, also offer more attractive returns for dollar-based investments. Geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions in Asia and Europe are prompting a rotation into the dollar as a safe-haven currency. Meanwhile, some emerging market currencies are under pressure, increasing global demand for dollar liquidity. Technically, a close above 98.75 could confirm bullish momentum, with 99.80 as the next upside target. As long as macro and risk dynamics lean in the dollar’s favor, DXY may continue its rebound from recent lows.
TVC:DXYLong
by fwalbaum
DXY 4Hour TF - July 20th, 2025DXY 7/20/2025 DXY 4hour Neutral Idea Monthly - Bearish Weekly - Bearish Dailly - Bearish 4hour - Bullish Higher timeframe trend analysis suggests that DXY is primarily bearish and is currently retracing to potential resistance. Going into this week we are looking to see if our 98.000 zone will stay as support or transition into resistance. Here are two scenarios which highlight both a bullish and bearish outcome: Bullish Continuation - Last week we saw a strong rally through our 98.000 zone which seems to still be holding. If this 4hour bullish trend is to continue we would like to see some sort of rejection off 98.000 support while also confirming a higher low. If this happens look to target higher toward major resistance levels like 99.250. Bearish Reversal- If we are to consider DXY bearish again on the 4hour we would need to see a break below 98.000 support and confirm this level as new resistance. There are a few major support levels to watch out for but DXY has the potential to fall dramatically if we see price get below 97.500.
TVC:DXY
by ForexLeague
DXY for this week Technical Analysis – Inverse Head & Shoulders with Neckline Retest Current Market Situation The chart shows an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern, which is a bullish reversal pattern. The neckline has been broken to the upside, providing a strong signal for potential continued bullish momentum. The price is currently in the neckline retest phase, a critical area to confirm the bullish trend before further upward movement. Key Zones Retest Zone (Pullback): 98.300 – 98.700, an important support area. Demand Zone: If price dips further, an additional support zone lies between 97.500 – 97.000. Monthly Trendline: Offers long-term structural support, reinforcing the bullish outlook. Potential Scenarios ✅ Bullish Scenario (Preferred): If the price holds above the retest zone and neckline: Target 1: 101.000 Target 2: 102.500 – 103.500 ⚠ Bearish Scenario (Invalidation): A break below 97.000 invalidates the bullish scenario and opens the door for deeper downside movement. Conclusion The market shows strong bullish potential after confirming the neckline retest. 97.000 is the key invalidation level for the bullish setup. Price action around the retest zone and demand area should be monitored closely before entering trades. ⚠️ Trade at your own risk – We are not responsible for any losses.
TVC:DXYLong
by TradingWithMohamad