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USDX trade ideas

What to Expect From FOMC and the Market’s Reaction to It? With tariffs and Middle East escalation in focus, central banks have somewhat fallen to the backstage recently. But today’s FOMC meeting might change that. The federal funds rate upper band is most likely to stay at 4.50% with a unanimous vote. However, today’s focus will not be on the interest rate itself but rather on the dot plot and updated economic forecasts. Inflation continues to move closer to the 2% target, but that trend may have shifted with the latest CPI report. Although recent inflation data came in better than expected, inflation appears to be flattening above 2% and could start rising again in the near future. Last week’s CPI and Core CPI reports showed early signs of this, and the upcoming PCE and Core PCE data could confirm those signals. Why is inflation still low despite tariffs? The main reason is frontloading. U.S. consumers and firms frontloaded many goods, especially durable good, ahead of the tariff hikes. Now, with tariffs in effect, consumption has slowed, and many firms are holding elevated inventory levels. In this environment, firms are reluctant to raise prices due to lower demand and high stockpiles. This suppressive effect is expected to gradually fade, allowing prices to rise. For that reason, the Fed is unlikely to begin rate cuts prematurely. Inflation could make a peak in the last quarter of 2025 or the first quarter of 2026 in our view. But the possible oil price spike due to Iran – Israel war could change this projection. At the March FOMC meeting when the economic projections were last updated, some of the tariff impacts were already incorporated. Inflation and unemployment were revised higher, while GDP was revised lower. Despite this, the Fed maintained its forecast of two rate cuts for both 2025 and 2026. However, since March, newly announced tariffs have been more extensive than expected. Some board members including Jerome Powell stated that. As a result, a similar adjustment to the forecasts may occur today: higher inflation and unemployment, lower GDP. Accordingly, the dot plot could show only one rate cut for 2025 and three for 2026. Why would the Fed cut more in 2026? Because the tariff impact is expected to be a one-time shock, not a structural shift. Once the effects wear off, the Fed could ease more. But there are some risks to that. According to some new research and New York FED President Williams, not only long term inflation expectations needs to be anchored, rather the “whole curve” So during a possible inflation peak came with tariff effects, FED could not cut repeatedly and should closely watch the effects on short-term inflation expectations. The main focus of today’s FOMC will be on the economic forecasts and the dot plot. If the new projections reflect only one cut for 2025, this would be bullish for the dollar. If the 2026 projection also shows only two cuts, that would be even more bullish. On the other hand, if the current forecast of two cuts in both 2025 and 2026 remains unchanged, the reaction could be slightly dovish for the dollar. During the post-meeting press conference, Chair Powell is likely to focus on uncertainties related to tariffs and energy prices, especially given the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Powell may downplay the hawkish tone of the dot plot during the conference, potentially reducing the overall market impact. With all this in mind, the dollar index could either break out of the descending wedge formation on the hourly chart or continue drifting toward the lower boundary. Holding above the 99 level could be key for short-term price action.
TVC:DXY
by ftdsystem
Cup of the Morning for DXYThe TVC:DXY seems to be forming a Cup and Handle Pattern on the 1Hr Chart! Cup and Handle pattern is considered a strong Reversal Pattern where we should expect Bullishness for the USD. After the 2nd or Equal High to the 1st was formed, Price made a Retracement to the 38.2% Fibonacci level and found Support to the begin forming the "Handle" or Consolidation Phase of the Pattern. Price must Break and Close above the "Brim" or Equal Highs of the Cup @ 99.113 to Confirm the pattern! Once confirmed, we can then look for price on DXY to rise up to the next level of Resistance in the 99.6 area!
TVC:DXYLong
by Novi_Fibonacci
DXY Bullish Reversal & Cup Formation The DXY (US Dollar Index) is exhibiting a strong bullish reversal pattern, with multiple technical signals suggesting upward momentum: 🔍 Technical Analysis Summary: ✅ Support Holding Strong: Price has respected the horizontal support zone around 98.00–98.50 on multiple occasions (highlighted by orange circles and green arrows), forming a solid base. ✅ Breakout from Downtrend: A clear breakout above two descending trendlines (black and blue) indicates a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment. ✅ Cup Pattern Formation ☕: A textbook Cup pattern is visible, where price formed a rounded bottom — a bullish continuation formation. The handle is minor and price has broken above the neckline (around 99.00), signaling a potential continuation toward the target. ✅ Bullish Target 🎯: Based on the cup pattern and prior resistance, the projected target is around 101.846, aligning with previous major resistance. 📌 Key Levels to Watch: Support Zone: 98.00 – 98.50 Immediate Resistance: 99.50 – 100.00 Major Resistance/Target: 101.846 🧭 Outlook: As long as the price remains above the 98.50 zone, the bullish scenario remains intact. The cup breakout indicates strong buying pressure, and momentum could push DXY toward the 101.846 target in the coming sessions.
TVC:DXYLong
by MrStellanSight
Fx Outlook for the Week June 23-27 Fx Outlook for the Week June 23-27 #DXY #USDJPY #EURUSD #GBPUSD #GOLD **Disclaimer:** The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
BLACKBULL:DX.F
by Junmadayag
The DXY eince 1979 and Rate Rises / Cuts & the Crucial point NOW What i want to draw your attention now, more than anything is simplay that DXY PA is on the line of Support created in the 2008 Crash Thisis Crucial as if it drops belwo, that is the $ on the international stage loosing the strongest line of support it has ever had If we look at the stage now, you will also see that the DXY was loosing traction BEFORE the FED began cutting Rates. This is due to many things on the internationa stage, Like BRICS gaining momentum. If we look closer, at the weekly chart since around 2017 We can see how the DXY has been Ranging, with a Few Peaks and Drops, the deepest being in 2021, just before the Bitcoin ATH that year. It bounced well and hit a Peak in late 2022, when Bitcoin was in its Deep Bear. DXY has ranged ever since j a tight range... Untill this year And now, we find DXY on that line of support once moew, Bitcoin maybe heading to a New ATH But this time we have the serious threat of Global Mayhem So, the thing to watch here, Like a HAWK, is if DXY can hold this line of support. Can the $ regain international support and bounce OR will it Fall through this line of support ? Or Range on it as in 2021 I am not going to pretend to know the answer but I certainly recommend we all pay attention to this- This could take a while................
TVC:DXY
by Orriginal
Skeptic | Weekly Watchlist Top Triggers for Forex, Gold & More!DXY: The Market’s Compass Let’s kick it off with DXY—the Dollar Index every trader needs to watch to get the market’s big picture. Daily Timeframe: After a failed break below the critical support at 98.801 , DXY dumped to 97.596 , then pulled back to test 98.801 . With rate cuts looking likely soon , I’m betting on more downside for DXY. The only wildcard? Rising Middle East tensions could spike inflation, push rates higher, and strengthen DXY, hammering crypto and CFD indices. 4-Hour Triggers: Short: Break below 98.530 —a clean setup to ride down to 97.596 . I’m leaning heavier on this, pairing it with USD-based forex trades for max R/R. 😤 Long: Break above 99.114 —riskier against the trend, so keep stops tight and profits quick. Pro Tip: Shorts are the safer play here, but watch geopolitical news for sudden reversals. EURX: Uptrend Power EURX is flexing some muscle. Weekly Timeframe: The resistance at 1072.6 looks broken. If we avoid a fakeout and hold above this zone, I’m expecting the major uptrend to keep rolling. Game Plan: No trigger needed—just confirm a few 4-hour candles above 1072.6, and I’m opening longs on EUR-based pairs. Patience for confirmation is key! 🙌 Pro Tip: Watch for fake breakouts—let the market prove itself before jumping in. Commodities: Gold & Silver XAU/USD (Gold) My gold analysis from last week still holds ( check it if you missed it—it’s got Middle East war scenarios and Bitcoin insights too ). No need to repeat—go read it for the full scoop! 📚 XAG/USD (Silver) Silver’s been on a wild ride after a massive pump. 4-Hour Timeframe : We’re now in a 4-hour range, which makes sense, and I expect it to linger into next week. Triggers: Long: Break above resistance at 37.31559 . Short: Break below support at 35.56800 . Pro Tip: If you’re holding my 33.68317 long from last week, don’t close yet—let it ride for more gains. If you’re not in, avoid FOMO and wait for the range break. 😎 Forex Pairs EUR/USD: Ready to Pop With EURX in an uptrend and DXY likely breaking support, I’m super bullish on EUR/USD next week. 4-Hour Triggers: Long: Break above resistance at 1.15429 . No need for RSI or SMA confirmation—just a clean breakout, and we’re in. 🚀 Short: Break below 1.13566—only if EURX’s 1072.6 break turns out to be a fakeout. Pro Tip: Longs are the play here—keep it simple and ride the breakout wave. GBP/USD: Bearish Break GBP/USD is looking spicy after a downward move. Daily Timeframe: The upward channel broke to the downside. I cloned the channel and placed it below—support at 1.34090 is massive, with multiple reactions in the past. 4-Hour Trigger: Break below 1.34090 opens a bearish move with high R/R. I’m personally shorting this break. 😤 Pro Tip: This is a key level—set alerts and don’t miss it! USD/JPY: Range Game USD/JPY is stuck in a long 4-hour box range. 4-Hour Timeframe: Price keeps testing the ceiling but travels less toward the floor, showing traders want to break up, not down. Triggers: Long: Break above ceiling at 146.204. Short: Break below the upward trendline, then support at 145.194 . Pro Tip: Longs have more juice—watch for volume on the break. EUR/CHF: Mirror of USD/JPY EUR/CHF is vibing like USD/JPY—a 4-hour box range. 4-Hour Triggers: Long: Break above resistance at 0.94293 . Short: Break below channel floor at 0.92963 . Pro Tip: Wait for a clean break—ranges can be choppy! Final Vibe Check That’s your Weekly Watchlist , fam! I’ll keep you updated daily as markets shift. Stay safe with capital management—max 1% risk per trade, no excuses. This week’s loaded with banger triggers, so sit down now, analyze, and set your alerts so you don’t miss a single move. Let’s make it a profitable week! 🚨 💬 Let’s Talk! If this watchlist got you hyped, smash that boost—it means the world! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to hit next? Drop it in the comments. Thanks for rolling with me—keep trading sharp! ✌️
TVC:DXY
by SkepticWise
1
DXY 2H Analysis – June 18, 2025Pair : dxy ,,💲 Is the bullish move fading out? 📉 Price reacting near upper trendline resistance 🔵 Potential correction or final push before deeper drop ❗ Wave count suggests i–ii–iii–iv completed; wave v setup expected 🔁 Watch the reaction in the highlighted zone 📦 Either short continuation or a bullish trap loading 🧠 📌 Strategy: Elliott Wave + Trendline Confluence 📅 Stay sharp. Events approaching 📰 📈 Trade with a plan, not hope. 🔔 Follow @Greenfireforex for more real-time setups and ideas.
TVC:DXY
by Greenfireforex