24 March 2025I love speaking my mind and dropping trading knowledge, please listen and go and backtest.
USDX trade ideas
[D] USX - Major Change AheadA rough idea how this could play till mid April. I do expect unusually disturbing readings on early-warning indexes and ISM since Trump inauguration to finally show up in metrics such as unemployment and CPI. This could weight strongly on the US Dollar. If basic axioms hold true, we're about to witness a major change in perception on the global reserve currency.
DOLLAR INDEXDXY
We had just broken below an AOV( Area Of Value) and price has been correcting there giving us a bearish flag formation structure.
This means that prices will be dropping for this coming week to our initial anticipated support area on the trend line
DXY + Progressive Trend Tracker + VIDYA + GANN square of nineProgressive Trend Tracker (PTT) is a development combining Bollinger Bands with Highest Highs and Lowest Lows by K.Hasan Alpay & Anıl Özekşi.
As observed on the charts the reading is well above the lower band and indicating the strength in the DXY. The three green soldiers bring message of strength from the world of candle stick patterns.
The VIDYA ( Variable Dynamic Moving Average is the black line on the chart and is the VAR based moving average. The price above this line also signals strength in the index.
The support and resistance lines is coming from the inbuilt indicator that display nearest support and resistance from GANN Square of 9 box. The RED line is the strongest resistance here and the blue line is the moderate support.
DXY March 23 week aheadDXY
March 23 week ahead
Price parent bias is bear
Price is Discount M/W/D
Previous session Premium and Premium on the daily range
News Monday 9:45
When Price lowered into the Monthly SIBI from sept 2024 for the second week but and then rallied for higher prices, I suspect that Price is gravitating to the buy stop target noted and the daily SIBI.
Wait and see what Sunday does. However if we see lower prices beginning of the week we could see Price rally to the buy side target and rebalance March 6 daily SIBI be the target for higher prices.
DXY March 23 Weekly Analysis DXY
March 23 Weekly Analysis
In hindsight it gets easier to see. Reading from the 4 hour chart I can see from March 5 price sold off to then consolidate on the 50, sells off early the next week making the low on Tuesday then rallies to engineer equal highs and closes at the 50. This past week Price come just below the 50 off consolidation again sells off early in the week making the low on Tuesday and hit deep discount and rallies closing this week in a Premium.
*Note the magnet that the event horizon played this past week-learning it value.
*Note price came down to below .70 on the parent range and wicked into the Monthly BISI from oct 2024
*Note that Price came to the .70 of the daily range and came through to the .618 creating equal lows. Daily chart
*Note price 3 week narrowed range I pointed out earlier this week
*Note Price was in a discount until Thursday coming through to a premium on the hourly chart
Beginning the week consolidating on the 50, taking sell stops and creating equal lows to close. Price lowers to take sell stops and creates equal lows on Tuesday in a deep discount. Wednesday Price launches to the 50 level taking Friday/Mondays equal highs. Sells off back into a discount. Thursday rallies to just take equal highs created from March 10. Retracement to the 50 level and upper quadrant of the FVG Thursday created. Friday rallies to barely take the buy side, then wicks down to the same FVG quadrant level creating equal lows and rallies higher again taking Thursdays buy stops and creates equal highs.
DXY Update – Two Possible Scenarios! 📢 DXY Update – Two Possible Scenarios! 📢
1️⃣ Bearish Scenario: Looking for sell from the Bearish OB 🎯
2️⃣ Bullish Scenario: If price doesn’t reach the Bearish OB, we shift focus to the Bullish OB for a potential buy ✅
📌 Waiting for price to approach key zones & using confirmations for entry!
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Bullish dollar next week?Based on the positive fundamentals for the dollar I’m expecting short term higher prices closing march
DXY: trading range 4HThe DXY is moving within a trading range on the 4H chart. We can sell at the top around 103.80 and buy at the bottom of the range around 102.80.
However, we anticipate an upward breakout (in the direction of the trend on the longer timeframes). Therefore, we can either buy at the bottom of the range or wait for a bullish breakout and a pullback to position ourselves for a buy. Our target would then be 105.45.
DXYFundamental Drivers Affecting DXY Next Week
Department Responsible:
US PMIs: S&P Global.
Fed Policy: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Trade Policy: US Treasury Dept
Key Events and Data Releases
S&P Global Flash PMIs (March 24)
Manufacturing PMI Forecast: 51.9 (Previous: 52.7).
Services PMI Forecast: 51.2 (Previous: 51.0).
Impact:
Above Forecast: Supports USD (DXY↑) on resilient economic activity.
Below Forecast: Weakens USD (DXY↓) as Fed rate-cut bets rise.
Trump’s Tariff Implementation (April 2)
Scope: Potential 25% tariffs on EU/China imports.
Impact:
Risk-Off Sentiment: Safe-haven demand for USD (DXY↑).
Trade War Fears: Could hurt US growth prospects, pressuring USD (DXY↓).
Fed Speeches
FOMC Member Bostic (March 24): Hawkish rhetoric (delayed cuts) supports DXY↑; dovish hints weigh on DXY↓.
DXY Technical Outlook
Scenario Bias Key Levels Catalyst
Bullish=Strong PMIs + Hawkish Fed + Tariff Escalation
Bearish= Weak PMIs + Dovish Fed + Tariff De-escalation
Neutral= Mixed Data + Geopolitical Calm
Fed’s Data Dependency:
The Fed remains "meeting-by-meeting," making incoming growth, inflation, and jobs data critical for USD volatility.
Bearish Momentum:
DXY holds below key technical indicators , signaling a bearish bias. A break below 103.30 could accelerate declines toward 102.84
Trump Policies:
Tariffs and immigration policies amplify USD volatility, with risks skewed toward stagflation (weak growth + high inflation).
Conclusion
Bearish Bias Dominates despite 3days buying momentum
Weak PMIs and dovish Fed rhetoric could push DXY toward 102.90. or 100
Tariff escalation risks and resilient US data are the only bullish catalysts.
Volatility Triggers:
April 2 Tariff Deadline: Monitor for trade war escalation.
Fed Speeches: Bostic’s tone will set short-term USD direction.
the fed member speech will be priced in terms of stance for clear directional bias .
Dollar Index - Will Rate Hikes Cause Risk Off Conditions?It’s been a risk off environment over the last few weeks and because of this, we have seen the appreciation of GBPUSD and EURUSD which was called weeks in advance.
With a massive imbalance above and daily sellside liquidity taken, the question is will Dollar Index fill the daily SIBI before the rate announcements happen?
If this happens, it will be a classic ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ scenario.
Next week will be very volition due to the news events being released and this could be the catalyst for price to expand into the local SIBI outlined on the daily timeframe.
Dollar Index at Risk: Key Support Holds the Fate of the TrendThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has broken down from a Head & Shoulders pattern, confirming a bearish reversal after a successful retest of the neckline. The price is currently near a key support area, and if it fails to hold, a drop toward the lower strong support zone is likely.
Additionally, RSI is showing bearish divergence and is below the neutral 50 level, indicating weakening momentum.
DYOR, NFA
$DXY is pulling back to a strong support zoneTVC:DXY is reaching a strong support zone and a pullback could end here of continue to 100. Key support level is being tested.
DXY aka USD suspicious leading diagonalif price confirms it is a leading diagonal, we will see a corrective move down before another spike higher.
Am eagerly waiting for the confirmation to load up positions in eurusd gpb aud etc as DXY will show the way, it moves up mean USD bullish and hence eurusd gbpusd etc moves down.
Good luck.
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DXY, bullish or bearish?Welcome back!
Today i'm posting a small idea on the DXY. Usually i cover crypto but the macro is important. A weak dollar correlates with more risk being taken and a strong dollar with less risk being taken. Hence my analysis of the DXY.
In the above chart a couple of things can be seen which makes the outlook hard to predict.
On one side there is a bullflag on the monthly timeframe with a target of 130!
On the other side, looking under we can see a bearish MACD cross and a bearish stoch RSI. On average it takes half a year to a year for a cross like this to recover.
This causes me to be bearish on the dollar and bullish on risk-on assets.
Thanks for reading
DXY refuse to reduceThere was a breakout candle through the price of 103.853, confirming the downtrend but then this candle was immediately eliminated, showing the psychology of refusing to sell at this price. Waiting for confirmation of a correction to a better selling zone
DXY March 21 Analysis DXY
March 21 Analysis
Price parent bias is bear
Price is Discount M/W/D
Previous session PREMIUM and PREMIUM on the daily range
NO NEWS
March 20 delivery
Price was in a discount. Asia small consolidation takes minor sell side rallied in London to FVG created in the dealers range and noted buy side targets. Small consolidation. NY rallies to take key buy side from March 10 taken in NY. Retraces to the daily range 50 just barley in a Premium and goes into consolidation.
Note the magnet that the event horizon has been this week.
As price came down to the .70 on the Monthly range price is in a consolidation whipping between the .70 and .618 with long tailed candles. This week price widen that consolidation range.
March 21 delivery
Logic says that price will seek the 50 and lower FVG inefficiencies to rebalance. Note what liquidity is taken and go from there. No news can be high resistance, stay sharp.
Study notes
Price started the week on a sell stops raid making a new low on Tuesday. And yesterday making a higher high coming into the bottom part of HTF FVG.
My Model Factors
Price will have to do the following for me to trade
*session liquidity taken
*macro time only
*first presented FVG
*4 candle pattern
*hour analysis down to 1 min every 15 minutes
*every hour mark out what price has done
Stay open to build narrative once Asia opens.
Stay open to reading price delivery
Breakout on the DXY - Is the DXY going higher?What is the DXY?
The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) measures the strength of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies. A rising DXY indicates a strengthening of the U.S. dollar. This can have significant effects on cryptocurrencies, particularly in the short- and medium-term. Here are some of the key impacts:
What does an increase in the DXY mean for crypto?
Negative Impact on Crypto Prices: As the dollar strengthens (rising DXY), the relative value of other assets, including cryptocurrencies, can decline. Many cryptocurrencies are priced in U.S. dollars, so when the dollar strengthens, the same amount of dollars may buy fewer crypto assets, leading to price declines for cryptocurrencies.
Safe-Haven Movement: When investors flock to the U.S. dollar due to its rising strength, they may move capital out of riskier assets like crypto and into the dollar or U.S. Treasury bonds, which are seen as safer. This can cause a decrease in demand for cryptocurrencies.
What can we conclude from the 4-hour DXY chart?
The DXY experienced a rapid decrease this month, resulting in a drop from 108 to 103. However, after this sharp decline, the price has shown some bullish signs.
First: The price action kept making lower lows while the RSI made higher lows, resulting in a bullish divergence.
Second: The price action formed a specific pattern commonly found at the end of a downtrend. This pattern shows that the price is making small lower lows and lower highs, suggesting market exhaustion and a possible upside move toward the resistance zone.
The resistance zone aligns with the golden pocket Fibonacci level, indicating it could be a strong rejection level.
It is highly probable that the DXY could make an upside move to the resistance zone and golden pocket after breaking this bullish chart pattern.
What do we see on the daily timeframe?
The price dropped rapidly from 108 to the support zone at 103. After consolidating at this level, the price made a slightly lower low, while the RSI made a higher low. This indicates a bullish divergence on the daily timeframe. Before this drop, the DXY formed a typical bearish chart pattern known as Head and Shoulders (H&S). The neckline of the pattern coincides with the resistance zone on the 4-hour timeframe and the golden pocket. This suggests that it may be a difficult level to break.
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DXY: Starting a new Channel Up rally into Summer.The U.S. Dollar Index is near the oversold zone on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.232, MACD = -1.040, ADX = 33.922) having reached the bottom of the 9 month Channel Up. The 1D RSI was oversold last week but is seen rebounding. This is exactly the kind of formation we had on the previous bottom of the Channel Up as well as the December 28th 2023 low.. The selling sequences that led to those lose have been almost the same as today's (-6.32% and -5.74%). The last Channel Up bullish wave reached exactly the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. Consequently we can go long here with an acceptable risk, targeting the top of the Channel Up (TP = 113.000).
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DXY SELL/SHORTBy utilizing Fibonacci retracement levels, historical patterns, , we can formulate a hypothesis that the market might follow a similar trajectory if bearish sentiment prevails.
