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DXYFundamental Drivers Affecting DXY Next Week Department Responsible: US PMIs: S&P Global. Fed Policy: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Trade Policy: US Treasury Dept Key Events and Data Releases S&P Global Flash PMIs (March 24) Manufacturing PMI Forecast: 51.9 (Previous: 52.7). Services PMI Forecast: 51.2 (Previous: 51.0). Impact: Above Forecast: Supports USD (DXY↑) on resilient economic activity. Below Forecast: Weakens USD (DXY↓) as Fed rate-cut bets rise. Trump’s Tariff Implementation (April 2) Scope: Potential 25% tariffs on EU/China imports. Impact: Risk-Off Sentiment: Safe-haven demand for USD (DXY↑). Trade War Fears: Could hurt US growth prospects, pressuring USD (DXY↓). Fed Speeches FOMC Member Bostic (March 24): Hawkish rhetoric (delayed cuts) supports DXY↑; dovish hints weigh on DXY↓. DXY Technical Outlook Scenario Bias Key Levels Catalyst Bullish=Strong PMIs + Hawkish Fed + Tariff Escalation Bearish= Weak PMIs + Dovish Fed + Tariff De-escalation Neutral= Mixed Data + Geopolitical Calm Fed’s Data Dependency: The Fed remains "meeting-by-meeting," making incoming growth, inflation, and jobs data critical for USD volatility. Bearish Momentum: DXY holds below key technical indicators , signaling a bearish bias. A break below 103.30 could accelerate declines toward 102.84 Trump Policies: Tariffs and immigration policies amplify USD volatility, with risks skewed toward stagflation (weak growth + high inflation). Conclusion Bearish Bias Dominates despite 3days buying momentum Weak PMIs and dovish Fed rhetoric could push DXY toward 102.90. or 100 Tariff escalation risks and resilient US data are the only bullish catalysts. Volatility Triggers: April 2 Tariff Deadline: Monitor for trade war escalation. Fed Speeches: Bostic’s tone will set short-term USD direction. the fed member speech will be priced in terms of stance for clear directional bias .
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
Dollar Index - Will Rate Hikes Cause Risk Off Conditions?It’s been a risk off environment over the last few weeks and because of this, we have seen the appreciation of GBPUSD and EURUSD which was called weeks in advance. With a massive imbalance above and daily sellside liquidity taken, the question is will Dollar Index fill the daily SIBI before the rate announcements happen? If this happens, it will be a classic ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ scenario. Next week will be very volition due to the news events being released and this could be the catalyst for price to expand into the local SIBI outlined on the daily timeframe.
TVC:DXYLong
by LegendSince
DXY, bullish or bearish?Welcome back! Today i'm posting a small idea on the DXY. Usually i cover crypto but the macro is important. A weak dollar correlates with more risk being taken and a strong dollar with less risk being taken. Hence my analysis of the DXY. In the above chart a couple of things can be seen which makes the outlook hard to predict. On one side there is a bullflag on the monthly timeframe with a target of 130! On the other side, looking under we can see a bearish MACD cross and a bearish stoch RSI. On average it takes half a year to a year for a cross like this to recover. This causes me to be bearish on the dollar and bullish on risk-on assets. Thanks for reading
TVC:DXY
by Rustlingjimmies
Further Underperformance for the US Dollar Index? Down nearly 4.0% this month, the US Dollar Index demonstrates scope to navigate deeper waters on the monthly chart towards the 50-month simple moving average (SMA) at 101.72. A similar vibe is evident on the daily chart. Following a test of support-turned-resistance at 103.94, a possible bearish scenario could unfold if price breaches the lower edge of the current descending triangle pattern (103.22/104.09). If a breakout lower materialises, follow-through downside could see support at 101.92 make an entrance (set just north of the 50-month SMA).
TVC:DXYShort
by FPMarkets
Trump 1.0 vs Trump 2.0 - Are we about to see a repeat? Trump 1.0: A Rollercoaster Ride for the DXY Trump took office on January 20, 2017, with the DXY starting at 102.14 (January 3, 2017). It quickly peaked at 103.00 by early March 2017 fueled by market optimism over pro growth policies...think tax cuts, deregulation and infrastructure spending which hinted at higher inflation and Fed rate hikes. The Federal Reserve delivered, hiking rates three times in 2017 to 1.25%–1.5% by December, pulling in foreign capital and boosting the dollar. Global uncertainty, like Brexit drama and a slowing Chinese economy made the U.S a safe haven adding to the dollar’s early strength. Meanwhile, the Euro was weaker, with Euro at 1.06 in January 2017. By mid 2017, the DXY started sliding, hitting a low of 89.94 by March 2018, as marked by the chart’s red box. Trump’s trade war threats, especially against China, spooked markets, driving investors to safer currencies like the euro and yen (almost like what we are seeing today) His vocal dislike for a strong dollar, claiming it hurt U.S exporters didn’t help, creating bearish sentiment for the dollar. The Eurozone, on the other hand was thriving with 2.6% GDP growth in 2017 (vs. U.S. 2.3%) and the ECB’s October 2017 tapering signal (QE cut from €60B to €30B monthly) pushed EUR/USD to 1.20 by February 2018. The Fed’s hints at pausing rate hikes by late 2017, amid mixed economic signals, further eroded the dollar’s yield advantage aligning with what we see in the chart. The DXY staged a comeback from late 2018, climbing to 99.00 by late 2019 and hitting 102.94 in March 2020 before COVID hit. The Fed’s four rate hikes in 2018, peaking at 2.25%–2.5% by December, widened yield gaps with the Eurozone (ECB deposit rate at -0.40%, then -0.50% by September 2019) U.S GDP growth of 2.9% in 2018 and 2.3% in 2019, boosted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) slashing corporate taxes from 35% to 21%, outpaced the Eurozone’s 1.2% in 2019, hit by trade tensions and Brexit. The U.S -China trade war, with tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods in September 2018, drove safe haven flows to the dollar while the ECB’s loose policy (QE restart in late 2019) weakened the euro, dropping EUR/USD to 1.12 by late 2018. COVID-19 caused a brief spike to 102.94 in March 2020, followed by a drop to 99.85 by April as the Fed slashed rates to near zero, later stabilizing around 99–100 by year end 2020, as noted by the chart’s "Dollar started to stabilize post covid." Trump 2.0: What’s Happening Now and What’s Next Fast forward to Trump 2.0, starting January 20, 2025. I marked this with "Trump2.0" annotation with the index peaking at 109.00, reflecting market hype over pro growth policies like tax cuts (e.g., 15% corporate rate, no taxes on tips) and tariffs (25% on Canada/Mexico, 10% on China, effective March 4, 2025) Markets expected these to spark inflation pushing the Feds to hike rates, driving the dollar up. By March 10, 2025, the DXY softened to 103.997 down 0.092%, mirroring Trump 1.0’s pattern of initial strength followed by weakness due to trade uncertainty. The Euro has shown resilience, with EUR/USD climbing to 1.0875 this month, supported by the ECB’s rate cut to 2.50% (effective March 12, 2025) and a hawkish stance despite a weak 0.9% growth forecast for 2025 and also the most recent EU talks of increasing military and security spending. The similarities are striking: Trump 2.0’s DXY spike to just over 109.00 and rapid drop to 103.997 echo the 2017–2018 volatility, driven by trade wars and economic divergence. The Euro’s early strength parallels 2017, but the Eurozone’s sluggish growth and potential Fed rate hikes could weaken it, as in 2018–2020. Trump’s isolationist moves...like demanding NATO members hit 5% GDP on defense (vs. U.S. at 3.38%), pausing $66.5B in Ukraine aid and prioritizing talks with Putin have the EU and American allies rethinking its relationship the the Unites States which has given the Euro some strength...also for the dollar are possible long term risks, trade wars might weaken the dollar and allies’ distrust (e.g., EU’s Kaja Kallas on February 27, 2025) could push them to diversify away from the dollar, boosting alternatives like the yuan. Trading Levels and Ideas Support/Resistance: Watch support at 103; a break below 102 could target 99. Resistance at 109—breaking 110 signals bullish momentum. Trade Setup: Consider EUR/USD longs on dips near 1.06–1.07, targeting 1.10, but be ready for dollar rallies if geopolitical tensions (e.g., Ukraine, NATO drama) could drive safe haven flows. Hedge with DXY longs above 105, eyeing 109–110. Risks: Trade wars could tank the dollar long term, tariffs might spike inflation, forcing Fed hikes. Opportunities: Tax cuts could boost U.S growth, supporting the dollar short term, while safe haven flows offer upside during uncertainty. To conclude this Long Post The DXY’s Trump 1.0 playbook of strength, dip, recovery...seems to be replaying in Trump 2.0 as of today but isolationist risks add a twist as well as possible recession fears which I didn't mention yet, that for another time. Stay nimble, watch Fed signals and keep an eye on global tensions for safe haven cues. As always stay blessed, stay humble and a massive cheers to you all!
TVC:DXY
by RobertTMFX
6
DXY March 18 Analysis DXY March 18 Analysis Price parent bias is bear Price is Discount M/W/D Previous session discount and discount on the daily range March 17 delivery Price delivering in a discount, taking minor buy stops hitting the .618 before turning around passing through the 50 to seek lower prices taking sell stops/FVG. March 18 delivery I suspect that Price will seek the 50 level 103.556 and watch for reaction if price will head to rebalance the noted FVG. Note Price broke structure and bounced off the .70 My Model Factors Price will have to do the following for me to trade *session liquidity taken *macro time only *first presented FVG *4 candle pattern *hour analysis down to 1 min every 15 minutes *every hour mark out what price has done Stay open to build narrative once Asia opens. Stay open to reading price deliver
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena