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Trump 1.0 vs Trump 2.0 - Are we about to see a repeat? Trump 1.0: A Rollercoaster Ride for the DXY Trump took office on January 20, 2017, with the DXY starting at 102.14 (January 3, 2017). It quickly peaked at 103.00 by early March 2017 fueled by market optimism over pro growth policies...think tax cuts, deregulation and infrastructure spending which hinted at higher inflation and Fed rate hikes. The Federal Reserve delivered, hiking rates three times in 2017 to 1.25%–1.5% by December, pulling in foreign capital and boosting the dollar. Global uncertainty, like Brexit drama and a slowing Chinese economy made the U.S a safe haven adding to the dollar’s early strength. Meanwhile, the Euro was weaker, with Euro at 1.06 in January 2017. By mid 2017, the DXY started sliding, hitting a low of 89.94 by March 2018, as marked by the chart’s red box. Trump’s trade war threats, especially against China, spooked markets, driving investors to safer currencies like the euro and yen (almost like what we are seeing today) His vocal dislike for a strong dollar, claiming it hurt U.S exporters didn’t help, creating bearish sentiment for the dollar. The Eurozone, on the other hand was thriving with 2.6% GDP growth in 2017 (vs. U.S. 2.3%) and the ECB’s October 2017 tapering signal (QE cut from €60B to €30B monthly) pushed EUR/USD to 1.20 by February 2018. The Fed’s hints at pausing rate hikes by late 2017, amid mixed economic signals, further eroded the dollar’s yield advantage aligning with what we see in the chart. The DXY staged a comeback from late 2018, climbing to 99.00 by late 2019 and hitting 102.94 in March 2020 before COVID hit. The Fed’s four rate hikes in 2018, peaking at 2.25%–2.5% by December, widened yield gaps with the Eurozone (ECB deposit rate at -0.40%, then -0.50% by September 2019) U.S GDP growth of 2.9% in 2018 and 2.3% in 2019, boosted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) slashing corporate taxes from 35% to 21%, outpaced the Eurozone’s 1.2% in 2019, hit by trade tensions and Brexit. The U.S -China trade war, with tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods in September 2018, drove safe haven flows to the dollar while the ECB’s loose policy (QE restart in late 2019) weakened the euro, dropping EUR/USD to 1.12 by late 2018. COVID-19 caused a brief spike to 102.94 in March 2020, followed by a drop to 99.85 by April as the Fed slashed rates to near zero, later stabilizing around 99–100 by year end 2020, as noted by the chart’s "Dollar started to stabilize post covid." Trump 2.0: What’s Happening Now and What’s Next Fast forward to Trump 2.0, starting January 20, 2025. I marked this with "Trump2.0" annotation with the index peaking at 109.00, reflecting market hype over pro growth policies like tax cuts (e.g., 15% corporate rate, no taxes on tips) and tariffs (25% on Canada/Mexico, 10% on China, effective March 4, 2025) Markets expected these to spark inflation pushing the Feds to hike rates, driving the dollar up. By March 10, 2025, the DXY softened to 103.997 down 0.092%, mirroring Trump 1.0’s pattern of initial strength followed by weakness due to trade uncertainty. The Euro has shown resilience, with EUR/USD climbing to 1.0875 this month, supported by the ECB’s rate cut to 2.50% (effective March 12, 2025) and a hawkish stance despite a weak 0.9% growth forecast for 2025 and also the most recent EU talks of increasing military and security spending. The similarities are striking: Trump 2.0’s DXY spike to just over 109.00 and rapid drop to 103.997 echo the 2017–2018 volatility, driven by trade wars and economic divergence. The Euro’s early strength parallels 2017, but the Eurozone’s sluggish growth and potential Fed rate hikes could weaken it, as in 2018–2020. Trump’s isolationist moves...like demanding NATO members hit 5% GDP on defense (vs. U.S. at 3.38%), pausing $66.5B in Ukraine aid and prioritizing talks with Putin have the EU and American allies rethinking its relationship the the Unites States which has given the Euro some strength...also for the dollar are possible long term risks, trade wars might weaken the dollar and allies’ distrust (e.g., EU’s Kaja Kallas on February 27, 2025) could push them to diversify away from the dollar, boosting alternatives like the yuan. Trading Levels and Ideas Support/Resistance: Watch support at 103; a break below 102 could target 99. Resistance at 109—breaking 110 signals bullish momentum. Trade Setup: Consider EUR/USD longs on dips near 1.06–1.07, targeting 1.10, but be ready for dollar rallies if geopolitical tensions (e.g., Ukraine, NATO drama) could drive safe haven flows. Hedge with DXY longs above 105, eyeing 109–110. Risks: Trade wars could tank the dollar long term, tariffs might spike inflation, forcing Fed hikes. Opportunities: Tax cuts could boost U.S growth, supporting the dollar short term, while safe haven flows offer upside during uncertainty. To conclude this Long Post The DXY’s Trump 1.0 playbook of strength, dip, recovery...seems to be replaying in Trump 2.0 as of today but isolationist risks add a twist as well as possible recession fears which I didn't mention yet, that for another time. Stay nimble, watch Fed signals and keep an eye on global tensions for safe haven cues. As always stay blessed, stay humble and a massive cheers to you all!
TVC:DXY
by RobertTMFX
6
DXY March 18 Analysis DXY March 18 Analysis Price parent bias is bear Price is Discount M/W/D Previous session discount and discount on the daily range March 17 delivery Price delivering in a discount, taking minor buy stops hitting the .618 before turning around passing through the 50 to seek lower prices taking sell stops/FVG. March 18 delivery I suspect that Price will seek the 50 level 103.556 and watch for reaction if price will head to rebalance the noted FVG. Note Price broke structure and bounced off the .70 My Model Factors Price will have to do the following for me to trade *session liquidity taken *macro time only *first presented FVG *4 candle pattern *hour analysis down to 1 min every 15 minutes *every hour mark out what price has done Stay open to build narrative once Asia opens. Stay open to reading price deliver
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
The US Dollar... March has been a fantastic trading month for me so far. I'm out of drawdown and showing a half-decent profit. This week, there is a lot happening, including interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan, Fed, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of England. At the moment, I'm thinking about the dollar with two minds. Based on current positive economic data and the potential of higher US inflation, I'm bullish. On the other hand, I see the potential downside of the dollar based on US uncertainty, possible US recession, and the US losing its spot as a safe-haven and stable investment environment... 🤷‍♂️ What do you think?
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
DXY Bullish SetupAfter the market completed a series of five bullish motive waves, it experienced a sharp decline characterized by an ABC corrective pattern. The price retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level, subsequently forming a leading diagonal pattern in wave 1. Additionally, an inverted head and shoulders pattern emerged after sweeping a key daily swing low (SSL) liquidity level. These developments suggest a potential upward movement in a five-wave motive structure. Market Minds Team (MMT)
TVC:DXYLong
by Market_Minds_SM
DXY BEARISH TRENDDXY has been on a bearish movement since December, heading to the strong resistance of monthly and weekly timeframe. Currently trapped inside 4hours consolidation zone, if we see breakout to the down side, this will be continuation of the down movement to the monthly resistance before the new uptrend will start. But if the breakout is to the upside, meaning there will be a short bullish movement before another strong fall DXY. this will help to know what Gold and other USD pair is about to do in our analysis. What is your view? comment below.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by J1000PIPSfx
Weekly FOREX Forecast March 17-21: Wait to Sell USD, Buy Majors!This is an outlook for the week of Feb 17-21st. In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets: USD Index EURUSD GBPUSD AUDUSD NZDUSD CAD, USDCAD CHF, USDCHF JPY, USDJPY The structure on the majors is simple and obvious. USD looks to move higher in the short term, into a bearish FVG, and then continue its bearish ways. The EUR, GBP will take advantage and move higher. The AUD and NZD are in consolidation, so waiting for a breakout is the best course of action. The CHF should outperform thee USD. Be mindful there is a lot of red folder news items coming up for the week ahead, to include FOMC on Wednesday. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
TVC:DXY
by RT_Money
6
DOLLAR TREND REVERSAL? 📉 The DXY has reached a key demand zone—is this the perfect buying opportunity? Liquidity grab & reversal incoming? 📊🔄 🔍 Market Insights: ✅ Support Zone: 102.28 - 102.96 🟡 ✅ Bullish Bounce Expected 📈—Targeting 105.42 - 106.13 🎯 ✅ Smart Money Accumulation? Watch for a liquidity sweep & strong upside! 🚀 💬 What’s your take? Drop your analysis in the comments! Let’s trade smart together! 🔥📊 #Forex #DXY #USDollar #Trading #MarketAnalysis #GreenFireForex
TVC:DXY
by Greenfireforex
DOLLAR DOMINANCE or DIVE? --- 🚀 📉💰 🔥 The DXY (US Dollar Index) is at a CRUCIAL turning point! After completing a 5-wave Elliott structure, is the biggest correction about to begin? 📊📉 🔍 Key Levels & Insights: ⚡ Major Resistance at Wave 5 – Rejection confirmed! ❌ ⚡ 12% Drop Incoming? The corrective A-B-C wave could shake the markets! 🌊 ⚡ Smart Money Watchlist – Will the Dollar Bulls hold, or are the Bears ready to take control? 🐂 vs. 🐻 📢 What’s your take? Drop your analysis in the comments! Let's decode the market together! 🔥🔍 #Forex #DXY #ElliottWave #USD #MarketAnalysis #Dollar
TVC:DXY
by Greenfireforex