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DXY - Can Get To $108DXY This is now a very strong bounce and a bullish morning star candle pattern is printing on the month chart still with half the month to go. I think this may be first major bounce from the market topping slump back in 2022... From the crash low I see it as an AR "Automatic Rally" (short covering) into a 3 wave correction... And now the real bounce which may end up being a higher time frame 3 wave correction that Elliott Wavers might call a WXY. This is starting to look like it will be the obligatory minimum 0.618 @ $108.7 retracement as per crash structure ratios and it can of course explore into the Golden Window up to 0.786 @ $111.3 overshoot ratio and even a little beyond. This is great for currency trades long dollar and as you know I posted a short GBPUSD trade (see linked idea) a while ago. That trade should have some legs if dollar gets to the Golden Window, which I think it will if the month closes here or above. Pull backs along the way of course. Not advice
TVC:DXYLong
by dRends35
2
Why I was surprised some called for a cooling/correction of USD$ Daily & Weekly Below Late last week and earlier this week, some traders & price predictors were giving their big 'scoop' about the Dollar correcting going into the start of this week. I didn't really buy it and here is why. I knew that there was no real recent resistance for USDX at these current levels. In fact, absolutely nothing for 12 months. I could also see that by late last week the Dollar had simply pulled back from its recent high at around 107.03 and yes even got over a whole number before pulling back and closing a little lower on 14 November. By last Friday 1 week ago the USDX (dollar index) was a mere 0.3% below 107.03. Also, look at the combined volume for last week and for that matter this week. Why and how would any instrument recede in price after all that weekly volume? Whenever, I make a call on the USDX, I am acutely aware of its wide influencing price behaviour on currency pairs, gold price and even Crypto and other commodities. Making calls on the dollar should be reserved for those who properly pull the chart apart and study the price-action with leading-indicators, not some sort of on the run call like "the dollar looks like selling, its a bit overbought". Theres no such thing as over bought when an instrument is rallying. I said the USD was BREAKING OUT back when it was around 100 prior to Gold's breakout. I had concerns over RSI Monthly Oversold levels and I could see historically when this had happened to the Dollar (on a USDX chart with monthly RSI levels plotted) that this occurrence had preceded a major breakout in the USD$. Multiple times at different periods going back only several years. Perhaps, next time give us your reasons why the USD is correcting and taking a break, that we can see how sound your technical analysis trading methods might be. Don't do something for example Bloomberg recommends in a headline, I am not picking on Bloomberg but the entire trading news, who really don't have a clue and are chase headlines.
EIGHTCAP:USDX
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
Dxy down setup for allThe US Dollar (USD) holds ground at rather elevated levels on Monday with a very calm start of the week, with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slightly in the red near a fresh year-to-date high reached last Thursday above 106.50. The main driver for the currency on Monday is the green light from the Biden Administration on Sunday for Ukraine to use long-range US missiles to target Russian infrastructures within Russian borders, just ahead of the G20 meeting in Rio De Janeiro this Monday. The US response comes after Moscow deployed nearly 50,000 troops to Kursk, the southern Russian region. Reporting on that, “the change comes largely in response to Russia's deployment of North Korean ground troops to supplement its own forces, a development that has caused alarm in Washington and Kyiv,” Reuters said.,.
TVC:DXYShort
by KingForex078
Market News Report - 17 November 2024The US dollar is showing no let-up as it was, yet again, a bullish force. While there were up-trending currencies like CHF and JPY, USD is definitely stealing the show. But what do the fundamentals say for the greenback and the other currencies? Let's cover them in more detail in our latest market news report. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. As predicted by STIR (short-term interest rate) markets, the Fed cut the interest rate by 25 basis points/bps from 5.00% to 4.75%. While labour data was down recently, this was mainly due to the impact of US hurricanes and labour disputes with Boeing. While there is some mildly positive economic data, the bearish bias remains for USD, with STIR pricing indicating one more 25 bps cut in December. However, Powell stated on the 14th of November that the economy isn't giving signals that the Fed must be in a rush to cut rates. The Dixie continues to head north and is very close to the key resistance at 107.348. Meanwhile, the key support is far away at 100.157, which will remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. A noteworthy point about the recent Fed meeting is the removal of the line "the committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2 percent." Finally, Powell also clarified that the US elections won't affect their decisions going forward. The big takeaway is that the Fed will see how fast/far they should cut rates. Furthermore, any big misses in economic data, such as labour and GDP (Gross Domestic Product), would support the expectation of cuts. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: bearish. The short-term interest rate (STIR) markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate last month. However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth). Short-term interest rate markets have indicated an 84% chance of a rate cut in December. Also, we have seen weaker economic data across various European nations (although the Eurozone Gross Domestic/GDP growth was above expectations). Another concern is that a protectionist US policy (with Donald Trump winning the election) could impact trade in the Eurozone, suggesting the potential for lower growth due to tariff risks. The euro has clearly broken the key support we mentioned previously (1.07774) - the next area of interest is 1.04485. Meanwhile, the key resistance remains far higher at 1.12757. Long-term outlook: bearish. The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors. However, any improvements in economic data (according to the ECB) would be a turnaround. The threat of a fresh trade tariff with Trump is hugely influential and may cause the euro to be continuously sold off. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) cut the bank rate from 5% to 4.75% as anticipated. The language indicates they need to be restrictive and a "gradual approach" to policy easing. Governor Bailey also highlighted that rates will probably be brought down cautiously. Despite this, we saw a slight increase in GBP/USD. This may be in line with the BoE's slightly hawkish attitude due to recent inflationary pressures. Speaking of which, watch out for the new YoY inflation rate for GBP scheduled for Wednesday. Like other dollar pairs, GBP/USD has looked bearish for some time. The nearest key support is at 1.26156 (which it has just touched), while the resistance target is 1.34343. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The BoE sees inflation (its main concern currently) as being stickier for longer. Bailey wishes to see it down to 2%. This is a moderately hawkish hint. Overall, incoming CPI (and other economic) data will be important for the British pound. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. Unlike in July this year, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently kept the interest rate the same. So, our outlook remains largely unchanged. However, a rise in USD/JPY could raise the possibility of the BoJ's intervention. ​​Governor Ueda of the BoJ noted not long ago that despite domestic economic recovery, recent exchange rate movements have reduced the upside risk of inflation (which has been on an upward trajectory). As recently as 31 October 2024, Ueda also stated that hikes would continue if the central bank's projections were realised. Interestingly, you can diarise his upcoming speech on Thursday. The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. Lower US Treasury yields are one potential bullish catalyst for the yen (the opposite is true). Inflation pressures and wage growth also provide the potential for upward momentum. We should also consider that the dovish tendencies of other major central banks and worsening US macro conditions are JPY-positive. Still, as a slight downer, near-term inflation risks subsiding (according to the BoJ) reduce the urgency for a rate hiking cycle. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its interest rate unchanged last week, marking the eighth consecutive hold. They emphasised that policy will remain restrictive until inflation moves toward its target. The RBA also lowered its GDP forecasts while the labour market remains tight. As with GBP/USD, the Aussie is currently more of a seller's market than a buyer's one. The key resistance level lies ahead at 0.69426, while the major support remains at 0.63484. Despite this bearish setup, consider the interesting dynamic with the opposite fundamentals of AUD and USD in your overall analysis. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. While the RBA suggests that rate hikes won't be necessary going forward, it hasn't ruled anything out. Governor Bullock recently mentioned that they would act if the economy dropped more than desired. It's crucial to be data-dependent on the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area. Also, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, with particular exposure to China's geopolitics. Trump's recent win in the US election means the prospect of trade tariffs with China has increased (potentially causing headwinds for AUD). New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: bearish. Unsurprisingly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZD) cut its interest rate by 50 bps recently and sees further easing ahead. This affirms another cut next month of potentially the same magnitude. Furthermore, the central bank is confident that inflation will remain in the target zone, adding more impetus to the bearish bias. Due to the rate cut, the Kiwi has been on a downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63790. Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498, an area which it has just touched. It will be interesting to see how it reacts this week. Long-term outlook: bearish. The central bank's latest dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) firmly puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' A 50bps rate cut is predicted for the meeting later this month. They also revised the OCR rates lower and signalled steady winnings in the inflation battle. As with the Aussie, potential headwinds for NZD are considered due to the trade tariff issues between China and the United States. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of Canada (BoC) unsurprisingly delivered a 50 bps cut on Wednesday. Further cuts remain on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%. The BoC is signalling victory over inflation due to the cuts, with Governor Macklem suggesting that they would probably cut further until they achieve the optimal low inflation. In their words, 'stick the landing.' Overall, the bias remains bearish - expect strong rallies in CAD to find sellers. While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is the weakest on the charts. USD/CAD has finally exceeded the key resistance at 1.34197. We have to go onto a higher time frame for the next target. For now, let's see what happens around this area. Meanwhile, the key support lies far down at 1.33586. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with STIR markets indicating a 67% chance of a 25 bps cut and a 33% chance of a 50 bps cut in December. The Bank of Canada has recognised the lower economic growth, and Macklem wishes to see this improve. Furthermore, any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data would send CAD lower. Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes - the opposite is true. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) recently. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters. The central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates." Finally, the October CPI came in weak at 0.6% (another poor result, as for the September data). Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like a worsening Middle East crisis. USD/CHF keeps rising steadily towards the major support level at 0.83326, while the major resistance level is at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc. The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. The SNB aims for neutral rates between 0 and 0.50% (currently at 1%). However, STIR markets only see a 33% chance of a 50 bps cut next month. Conclusion In summary: The US dollar remains one of the key currencies to watch, given the recent elections and Trump's potential to affect trade relations with the likes of Australia and New Zealand. Inflation is a common theme among central banks. Watch out for the new YoY inflation rate for GBP on Wednesday. Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain unchanged from the last few weeks. As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI