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DXY: Is a Dollar Retracement on the Horizon? On Friday, the U.S. Dollar experienced a pullback after reaching yearly highs above 107.00. Market reactions to comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated a decline in the likelihood of a potential interest rate cut in December, now estimated at just 60%. In economic news, retail sales saw a month-over-month increase of 0.4% in October, exceeding analysts' expectations. The dollar has now approached a significant supply zone established in September 2023, suggesting the potential for a price retracement. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that retail investors remain strongly bullish, while other market participants appear to hold a more neutral to bearish stance. Additionally, seasonal trends indicate a bearish pattern that could persist until the end of January. With the dollar having recently rallied significantly, it is currently in an overbought state. Despite the dollar's strength, all currencies correlated with the Dollar Index (DXY) continue to face pressure. However, the emergence of a potential reversal candlestick pattern could signal an impending retracement. We will monitor the U.S. dollar index closely for opportunities to enter on the bearish side. ✅ Please share your thoughts about DXY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
TVC:DXY
by FOREXN1
1
Bullish bounce off pullback support?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 106.08 1st Support: 105.16 1st Resistance: 107.33 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
DXY Will Go Up! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for DXY. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 106.671. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 107.136 level soon. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
ICEUS:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
Idea for next week.The US Dollar (USD) continued to hover near recent highs amid Trump policy uncertainty, a possible return to US exceptionalism and less dovish Fedspeaks. DXY was last at 106.55 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. DXY may enter into consolidation “Overnight, Fed chair Powell said that the Fed does not need to be ‘in a hurry to lower rates’ and that the current strength of the economy allows it to approach decisions carefully. On labour market, he said ‘it is now by many metrics back to more normal levels that are consistent with employment mandate’.
TVC:DXY
by EZIO-FX
DXY. When to Expect a Weak Dollar?Hello traders and investors! At the end of September and the beginning of October, I analyzed AUDUSD and EURUSD, where the technical picture predicted a decline in these currencies against the dollar. You can find these posts in related ideas. There were discussions with colleagues about how many countries' economies need a weaker dollar. I wouldn’t mind profiting from a dollar decline either, but a month and a half ago, there were no signs of a DXY drop. Let's take a look at what the chart suggests and when this might happen. Weekly Timeframe A sideways range formed on the weekly chart in March 2023 (point 4 was established). The lower boundary is 99.099, and the upper boundary is 106.952. The buyer's vector 11-12 has reached its obligatory target — the price level of point 10 within the range (106.169). This means we can start watching for seller activity on the weekly timeframe. If the sellers show up, the seller's vector 12-13 becomes relevant, with potential targets of 99.807 and 99.099. Note that the key bar (with the highest volume) of the buyer’s vector 11-12 is the bar from November 4. Daily Timeframe There’s a long trend on the daily chart. The last buyer's impulse ranges from 103.86 to 106.734. The key bar of the impulse (highest volume) is the bar from November 14. Hourly Timeframe On the hourly chart, a sideways range has formed. The lower boundary is 106.037, and the upper boundary is 106.734. The current buyer's vector 8-9 has potential targets of 106.681 and 106.734. From there, it's not far to 106.952 (the upper boundary of the weekly range). Summary The price has approached levels on the weekly TF where a reversal may begin. For now, there are no signs of a reversal on the weekly and daily TF. We need to see signs of seller activity on the weekly chart to look for short positions with the goal of realizing the seller's vector 12-13 in the weekly range. You can look for long or short positions on the hourly chart by trading within the range from boundary to boundary (if the boundary holds). Until the DXY reverses, looking for long positions in other currencies against the dollar is risky. Good luck with your trading and investments!
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by AlexeyWolf
My technical analysis on DXYAt the moment I am expecting uptrend moves on EURUSD and GBPUSD, I want these pairs to make corrections of an impulsive downtrend move they have been having lately. DXY (our benchmark because these pairs are /USD) is currently in a supply zone on the Daily timeframe. The market is reacting from this zone and seems to have created a downtrending liquidity line and is respecting the change of direction on the 30M timeframe. If the market climbs above this liquidity and subsequently shows us a downtrend shift, I believe we will see strong buying strength on EURUSD and GBPUSD in the week of 11/18/2024 - 11/22/2024.
TVC:DXY
by RobertK1M
Market Analysis: What is the next move for USD? November 2024 Following a decisive victory for Donald Trump, investors have shown renewed confidence in the USD, driven by his "America First" policy, which is expected to prioritize domestic economic growth. This shift has led to a significant rally in the USD across major currency pairs. However, it's crucial to note that the sustainability of this rally could hinge on Trump's approach to escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. If the administration avoids further conflict, it could help stabilize oil markets and prevent a steep decline in demand. This week, the Federal Reserve made a noteworthy announcement, signalling that it does not intend to lower interest rates in the near term, contrary to market expectations. The previous anticipation of a rate cut in December has been largely discounted, which has further bolstered the USD. The Fed's stance acts as a buffer against potential downside risks in oil prices, supporting the USD even if oil experiences another downturn. On November 8 and November 14, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released data on U.S. crude oil inventories. The reports showed an unexpected increase of 2.1 million barrels for the week ending November 8, significantly higher than the expected 0.4 million barrel build. This marked the second consecutive week of larger-than-expected inventory growth, exerting additional downward pressure on oil prices. In contrast, the Chinese government opted against implementing a substantial fiscal stimulus, despite the ongoing economic slowdown. Instead, Chinese authorities directed major banks to reduce deposit rates to stimulate liquidity. This decision suggests a reluctance to engage in aggressive monetary easing, even as the country faces mounting pressure from the Trump administration's tariffs. These tariffs could intensify competition among Chinese producers, potentially prompting further calls for economic support from Beijing. Amid these developments, oil prices fell sharply, hitting $66 per barrel this week. A break below the psychological support level of $65 could trigger a deeper decline, with the potential for prices to reach the $55-$50 range. Such a drop may introduce bearish pressure on the USD, as lower oil prices tend to affect U.S. inflation expectations and broader market sentiment. - Correlation between DXY and Oil Prices creates trade opportunities. On November 15, USD/JPY exhibited a strong bearish impulse, reflecting a shift in market dynamics. As a major oil importer, Japan stands to benefit from lower oil prices, which may have contributed to the JPY's strength against the USD. This move could foreshadow similar weakness in the USD against other currencies, presenting potential trading opportunities. Given the current fundamental outlook and technical price structure, bullish setups may emerge on EUR/USD and GBP/USD, as both pairs have broken key support levels and are now positioned for a corrective rebound on the daily timeframe. This correction could provide favourable entries on lower timeframes. On the other hand, AUD/USD and NZD/USD are likely to underperform relative to EUR/USD and GBP/USD due to their strong economic ties with China. The slowdown in Chinese economic activity is expected to weigh on both the Australian and New Zealand dollars, limiting their upside potential. This divergence may create additional trading opportunities in cross pairs like GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, EUR/AUD, and EUR/NZD, as capital flows favour the relatively stronger European currencies over the weaker commodity-linked currencies.
TVC:DXYShort
by Nine-Trader