Anticipating a Stronger DollarThe U.S. dollar ( TVC:DXY ) has been strengthening since the 2008 crisis, and I expect this trend to continue. I anticipate the Dollar Index (DXY) could reach a target of 120 by the next election or even sooner.
USDX trade ideas
DXY long forecastWeekly reaching for buy side liquidity
Daily and 4h showing internal range to external range move
DXY upward momentum continuesDXY upward momentum continues as US dollar continues to strenthen with new elected government polices
DXY Long forecastWeekly reaching for buy side liquidity
Daily and 4h showing internal range to external range move
DXY Strong Bullish Bias! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
DXY made a bullish
Breakout of the key
Horizontal level of 106.500
Which is now a support
Then made a retest and is
Now going up again so
We are bullish biased and
We will be expecting a
Further move up
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
DXY showing signs of 1HR TopDXY currently forming bear divergence on daily time frame and on the 1HR time frame just set a lower high with a prior lower low. Price is still extended up very high and with some consolidation this could still push up however with the rising wedge formation on the 1 HR time fram we will need to break the formation sooner or later and with the current price action It would appear the liklihood is higher for a correction (Pull back) than it would be for continuation over the coming weeks. US economic news has been in line mostkt with expecations with no major surprises.
The biggest concern when playing against the USD right now is the reduced liklihood of a rate cut in the near future.
Keep in mind when looking at the DXY daily we are at key resistance levels right now. I would watch for breaks above the current high very closely as we still could look for a push to or above the 2022 High around $114.75.
DXY, DOLLAR AT THE CROSSROADFRIENDS..
the result of the United States election is a very positive sentiment for Dollars thats why we seen a strong dollars the last few days..
but there are some information about fed rate cut next month and usually market will react before the actual happening..
these are 2 dxy important level :
107 ( 3 times resist at 2023)
105 ( major trend line break out and still not yet pullback )
my opinion there will be some retest until 105 if break then we will see 100.. if rebound from 105 the price will try to break resistance at 107 and if dxy can break it we shall see dxy return to 110-113
FRIENDS.. ALWAYS DYOR before opening position
DXY Will Go Up! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 7h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 106.564.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 107.267 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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Dxy downgradeDxy trending down, xxxusd going up usdxxx going down, bullish trend at DXY penetrative and crossing bullish resistance,
DYOR always, n keep ur trade safe
DXY: Move Up Expected! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 106.688$
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
US INDEX (DXY) To 99 in 2025hello friends
DXY has reached or a strong daily resistance zone and creating a double TOP and rejection 2 test on trend line gold markets are show u why its dropping technically there is many other things showing weakness in $ from there are Fundamentally also something not going good for $ so we don't miss type of historical moves share Ur thoughts with us
Stay tuned
Trump Trade Thoughts - USD at Range ResistanceWhere do I start?
Irrespective of your opinions regarding Donald Trump, his recent election win and resounding defeat for the Democrats will unquestionably go down in history. Not only did the Republicans bag a clean sweep of all seven swing states, they secured a majority in Congress – winning both the House of Representatives and the Senate. In political parlance, this is a ‘trifecta’.
While Trump is busy allocating Cabinet and Administrative positions, what does this mean for traders?
Two words: ‘Trump Trade’
US stock markets outperformed in the lead-up to and following the election results, and key indices recently ventured to record highs. Impressively, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 are up 25% year to date. The post-election rally has benefited several stocks, but one stands out: Tesla (TSLA), which surpassed US$1 trillion in market value and is up 25% year to date. Additionally, Trump appointed Elon Musk and former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy to head up the newly created Department of Government Efficiency.
The US dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields have also been doing well pre- and post-election, with the former up 5% year to date. Despite the spirited advance, the Research Team did a superb job of highlighting a potential technical headwind in the shape of long-term range resistance around the 107.19 region on the US Dollar Index. While many factors govern the USD’s trend, this resistance marks a critical juncture for the greenback and could prompt profit-taking. However, most traders will likely look for a breakout to the upside here, effectively opening the door for breakout plays: a continuation of current momentum with limited nearby resistance seen overhead.
It would also be remiss of me not to reference Bitcoin (BTC) touching record highs just south of US$95k versus the USD; while I did not think we’d see US$100k quite so soon, this milestone may be reached before the year-end. This perspective is primarily influenced by the incoming Administration's anticipated ‘crypto-friendly’ approach, which is expected to provide regulatory clarity and flexibility. Although previously sceptical of the cryptocurrency market, one of Trump’s pledges involves making the US, and I quote, ‘the crypto capital of the planet’. Coupled with his campaign receiving donations in Digital Currencies and the recent launch of World Liberty Financial, a family business that is designed as a decentralised finance (DeFi) platform where users can invest in Cryptocurrencies, this marks quite a U-turn from his first term as president.
The US Federal Reserve continues to claim some of the limelight. A cooling labour market, resilient growth and robust spending underscore the possibility of another 25 basis point rate cut in December, aligning with market pricing (currently assigning an 80% probability of a cut). However, while further easing could be seen next month, with the Trump era just around the corner and inflation remaining sticky, 2025 is shaping up to be a different story.
For now, though, the Trump Trade is alive and kicking. This suggests that investors will keep a close eye on US stock markets, the USD, Treasury yields, and Crypto assets.
Prepared and written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
#DXY 1W#DXY 1W;
The Dollar, which has managed to gradually accumulate until today with the falling trend resistance in October 2022, is preparing to move upwards again.
Aside from the fact that it has tested the FVG area 2 times, we will soon find out if it will be successful in its 3rd attempt.
It would not be a surprise to see a rise up to 108-109 levels. If it exceeds these levels, the falling trend (red) above may act as resistance again.
DXYExpected technical view of the dollar. Daily frame. Possible decline to the 104.626 area below. If it is broken, it will continue to decline to the lower areas.
Will the Dollar Retrace After Retail Sales Data?Macro theme:
- The dollar hovered near a one-year high ahead of today’s Oct Retail Sales report. Markets expect a 0.3% MoM increase, down from Sep's 0.4%.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated no urgency to lower rates, citing steady economic growth, a strong job market, and persistent inflation.
- According to the CME FedWatch tool, expectations for a 0.25% rate cut next month have dropped to 62.4% from 82.5% a day ago.
Technical theme:
- The market tests the one-year high area around 107.00, confluence with the 78.6% Fibonacci Extension. The index is stretched to the upside and above both EMAs, indicating a potential mean reversion.
- If DXY cannot remain above 106.35, the index may retrace further to retest 105.43.
- On the contrary, if DXY extends its gain above 107.00, the index may retest 107.78, confluence with the 100% Fibonacci Extension.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
DOLLARFED chairman on visit to Dallas fed team was a little beat hawkish ,feds are not in hurry to cut rate ,but will be watching the economic dockets as they unfold to take appropriate decision on rate ,Powell said been to fast or slow will affect the job market and alter 2% inflation target of FED mandate.
DXY reached the critical resistance zone. H4 15.11.2024 DXY reached the critical resistance zone 📉
Honestly, I didn't think they would push the dollar index to the final zone near 107
without a pullback, but they still did. Now they gave a clear reaction downwards
and it is very possible that the correction has started. Of course, we cannot deny
the possibility of retesting the highs and then continuing the fall, but in general,
the first signs of reversal and culmination have already appeared. It is very desirable
to close the week below 106.30 and then the idea of a false
breakdown of the 2-year highs will be confirmed.
TVC:DXY
U.S.Dollar Chart Update !The US dollar recently broke above its descending triangle pattern and is testing a key horizontal supply zone. While it’s challenging this resistance, a potential pullback could still occur. The Ichimoku Cloud beneath provides strong support, reinforcing the bullish structure.
Given the dollar's inverse correlation with crypto, any decisive move could significantly impact broader market trends. Stay alert to shifts in momentum as they may signal changes in the crypto landscape.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes and is not financial advice. Always stay updated with market movements and adjust your trading strategies as needed.
You can DM us for information on any other coin.
@Peter_CSAdmin
Possible USD Strength Continuation?Here's the revised trading plan with the requested adjustments:
1 . Baseline Scenario :
- Macro-Fundamental Bias: Neutral to Slightly Dovish . The Federal Reserve has recently lowered the federal funds rate to 4.50% - 4.75%, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary easing. While inflation remains somewhat elevated, the Fed is balancing its dual mandate of supporting employment and controlling inflation. Current market expectations indicate a 59% probability of a quarter-point rate cut at the December meeting, down from 82.5%.
- Short Term Sentiment Bias: Bullish . The short-term sentiment on the USD is bullish, driven by Fed Chair Powell's recent comments on the strong economy and solid job market, which have reduced the likelihood of a December rate cut.
2. Risk Event Baseline :
- Market Expectations:
- Core Retail Sales m/m: Forecast 0.3% (Previous 0.5%)
- Retail Sales m/m: Forecast 0.3% (Previous 0.4%)
3. Surprise Scenarios:
- Positive Surprise :
- Plan: If retail sales figures exceed expectations, this will likely reinforce the bullish sentiment on the USD. Consider increasing long positions in USD pairs, particularly against currencies with dovish central banks. Additionally, look for opportunities in sectors that benefit from strong consumer spending, such as retail and consumer discretionary stocks.
- Negative Surprise :
- Plan: If retail sales figures come in below expectations, the market reaction is expected to be muted given the current sentiment. Maintain existing positions but be prepared to adjust if subsequent data or Fed communications indicate a shift in the economic outlook. Monitor for any signs of weakening consumer confidence or spending that could impact broader market sentiment.
Dollar's Rise, Gold's Demise◉ Abstract
The US Dollar Index (DXY) and gold prices have a historically inverse correlation, with a stronger dollar typically reducing gold demand. Key drivers of this relationship include inflation, geopolitical tensions, and interest rates. With a 73-95% negative correlation observed over time, investors should note the current market outlook: the DXY is poised to break out above 107, potentially surging to 114, while gold prices may drop 5% to 2,400 and then 2,300. Understanding this dynamic is crucial for making informed investment decisions and capitalizing on potential trading opportunities.
◉ Introduction
The relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and gold prices is significant and typically characterized by an inverse correlation. Understanding this relationship is crucial for investors and traders in the gold market.
◉ U.S. Dollar Index Overview
The U.S. Dollar Index measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six major foreign currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound. It serves as an indicator of the dollar's strength or weakness in global markets. When the index rises, it indicates that the dollar is gaining value relative to these currencies, while a decline suggests a weakening dollar.
◉ Inverse Relationship with Gold Prices
Gold is priced in U.S. dollars on international markets, which directly influences its price based on fluctuations in the dollar's value:
● Strengthening Dollar: When the DXY index increases, it generally leads to a decrease in gold prices. This occurs because a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for investors using other currencies, thereby reducing demand.
● Weakening Dollar: Conversely, when the DXY index falls, gold prices tend to rise. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign investors, increasing its demand and driving up prices.
Research indicates that this inverse relationship has been consistent over time, particularly in long-term trends. For instance, historical data shows that gold prices often rise when the dollar depreciates, reflecting a negative correlation of approximately 73% to 95% over various time intervals.
◉ Short-Term Deviations
While the long-term trend supports this inverse relationship, short-term anomalies can occur under specific market conditions. For example, during periods of extreme volatility or economic uncertainty, gold and the dollar may exhibit a positive correlation temporarily as both assets are sought after as safe havens. This behaviour can confuse investors who expect the typical inverse relationship to hold.
◉ Additional Influencing Factors
Several other factors also affect gold prices beyond the dollar's strength:
● Inflation: Rising inflation often leads investors to flock to gold as a hedge against currency devaluation.
➖ E.g. In 2022, as inflation rates surged to 9.1%, demand for gold increased by 12% year-over-year, pushing prices higher. Historical data shows that during periods of high inflation from 1974 to 2008, gold prices rose by an average of 14.9% annually.
● Geopolitical Events: Uncertainty from geopolitical tensions can drive demand for gold regardless of dollar fluctuations.
➖ E.g. In late 2023, escalating conflicts such as the Israel-Palestine situation and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war contributed to a surge in gold prices, with reports indicating increases of over 3% in a week due to these tensions
● Interest Rates: When the Fed raises interest rates, it typically strengthens the dollar as higher yields attract foreign capital. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, which can reduce demand.
➖ E.g. During the Federal Reserve's rate hikes from March 2022 to early 2023, many investors moved away from gold as they sought higher returns from bonds and other fixed-income securities. This shift contributed to downward pressure on gold prices during that period.
◉ Technical Standings
● U.S. Dollar Index TVC:DXY
The US Dollar Index has been stuck in neutral for two years. But if it clears the 107 hurdle, get ready for a surge to 114.
● Gold Spot/USD OANDA:XAUUSD
➖ Gold prices skyrocketed to 2,790, then plunged. Expect a 5% drop to 2,400. If that support cracks, 2,300 is the next safety net.
DXYThe Dollar Index measures the strength of the US$ versus this 6-currency basket. How are these currencies weighted? Each of these 6 currencies is weighted in the proportion of the breadth and depth of their trading relationship of these countries with the US.
DXY POTENTIAL LONG|
✅DXY is trading in an
Uptrend and the index has
Broken the key horizontal
Level of 106.500 and the
Breakout is confirmed so we
Will be expecting a further move up
LONG🚀
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Is the Trump Trade Fading? The sugar high from Trump’s victory may be wearing off in a few areas.
Tesla, once a post-election favorite after Elon Musk’s support of Trump’s campaign, has now reversed direction. Reports suggest that Republicans will end the $7,500 EV tax credit—a move that’s sent Rivian tumbling 9%, while Tesla is down nearly 4%.
Shares of Trump Media & Technology slid 8% today. But being a meme stock, analysis here won't tell us much. In a notable signal, the CFO and two other insiders sold over $16 million of stock in the week following the election.
Yet, the U.S. dollar remains resilient, possibly buoyed by the Cabinet picks coming out of the Trump administration. Marco Rubio’s nomination as Secretary of State suggests a tough stance on China. Known for his anti-communist positions and support for Hong Kong’s democracy movement, Rubio has advocated for tighter export controls on U.S. technology and visa sanctions against Chinese officials, hinting at a policy that may go well beyond tariffs.
