VIX trade ideas
VixPurple wave - 50sma
White wave 21ema
Some things I notice happened this week.
1.Daily MACD crossed over bearish
2. Daily CCI curling over
3. Daily RSI breaking uptrend
Those 3 things spell out bearish Technicals for the VIX.
Bounced off 18.00 friday with a hourly RSI at 20 and A oversold CCI on 1hour and 2hour..
I'm looking for a bounce up to 21 and 50 MA early next week and then we will see if the ADP non Farm will break vix out from under resistance or send it back back to 18.
If we break 18 this week the next strong support is at 17... if you go to your monthly chart and draw a trendline from 2017 lows until now you'll see we recently bounced on Feb 2 lows. Can't see thus market going back up 4300-4400 unless vix breaks back below 17
So I'm long until 20.30 , then let's see what happens
Vix Looking for a bounce back up to 20.50 here
Oversold on 1hour cci and on trendline support.
Once it gets back to 20.50 we'll see if there is a break out or not
VIX setup with SPYWe have a great set up here on VIX to breakout once again as SPY has filled the gap from today. Looking forward to a break above resistance and the official start of the bear break through of SPY.
VIX: TIME TO SHAKE MARKETS?US equities seem not to continue the rally after inflation pressures on FED.
Double top pattern on US BONDS and DXY rejects 105.5
US 2Y BONDS yield:
DXY declines but remains strong on possible 50bps rate hike:
Follow for more updates on this!
Vix Pulled back inside wedge here and is attempting to break 21ema and 50sma support.
Closing gap at 20, if vix closes below 50sma I don't foresee a Catalyst big enough to break it back over resistance until Job report next week. This pullback would allow equities to bounce I the mean time..
Once 20.35 goes things will drop quickly
$VIX, 1, 2 forming LOWER HIGHS, $TNX stalling🚨#Yields are still forming lower highs🚨
$TNX bucks trend but it lags (inverted curve)
$VIX LOWER LOW
This can be very good short term for #stocks & #crypto
Vix Since the original breakout the vix has did the usual falling wedge move which is retest and bounce. The movements since the breakout has now formed a Pennant, if we breakout of this Pennant to the upside , the most likely target will be the 200sma. A move to the 200sma would likely send the spy to 385-387.
After that type of move I'd expect a consolidation and pullback in which the market would dead cat
Contrary perspective, inside this pennant is also a double top , but the vix would need to break pennant support and fall below 20.90 for the market to really rally.
Reference note, 22 is tough resistance
ViX spiking 4% and bearish mode ViX spiking 4% and bearish mode. We are potentially entering a very bearish period.
VIX: VOLATILITY CYCLES / POINT OF CONTROL / RAISING THE CEILING DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a SEMI-MACRO analysis of VIX a volatility index on the 4 hour timeframe. This is a brief update on VIX as we have had some interesting momentum taking place.
POINTS:
1. Deviation of 7 points continues to stand and justifies Supply & Demand Pocket Placement.
2. RSI is currently OVEREXTENDED but PRICE ACTION continues to exhibit compressed behavior by only GRAVITATING around 20 POINTS.
3. MACD signals that past cycles have at least seen 2.00 POINTS on MACD'S deviation from Median but has only seen 0.50 since the beginning of this VOLATILITY CYCLE.
IMPORTANT: With a new ceiling confirmed by price actions recent upward momentum it is safe to say that if price action surpasses 23 we will come to see elevated VOLATILITY for SPY, SPX, ES1! or NQ1!. I would consider a BULLISH & BEARISH scenario when it comes to VIX but no recession has ever come to an end without VIX first touching 40 POINTS but here it is.
SCENARIO #1: In a BULLISH scenario for VIX we see an eventual RETEST of 19 followed by further consolidation and a BREAK of 23 POINTS by MARCH 8th.
SCENARIO #2: In a BEARISH scenario for VIX we come to see a break of 19 POINTS to the downside followed by an inevitable RETEST of the 8 YEAR TREND LINE & would elongate capitulation due date.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
TVC:VIX
CBOE:VIX
VIX Roadmap Update February 2023Should be consistent with King Dollar move as pressure likely rising post May
VIX Island gap and fallLooking at the VIX Gaps for the past while, a pattern is emerging. Lets see if it follows through with a rise in SPX/SPY.
Vix2 days outside its daily Bollinger bands..
Inverted cup and handle formed here.
Look for a retest of wedge breakout
VIX: further upside potential?A bullish trend is applicable.
The ideal entry range is around 21.50.
Increase exposure for a break above 24.90.
The target price is set at 27.45.
The stop-loss is set at 20.65.
Notice the pockets of the 200-month, 200-week and 200-day simple moving averages.
Breaking above the 200-day simple moving average might target the upper range of the linear regression channel pattern.
VixClean breakout on falling wedge here..
I think we retest break or 21.90 minimum and then PCE really lights a match under it.
If vix goes to 26, there is now way the Spy holds above 390.
Spy is continuing to declineAs previously discussed, spy has not broken (correctly) to the downside of the distribution pattern discussed in last week's post.
My leading indicators (gold, EM, and rates are signaling risk-off). However, gold has paused. SPY is at the large 400 handle. I expect a slight bounce or some consolidation to occur before continuing toward my target of ~380.
Keep a close eye on this breakout!Traders,
Keep a close eye on this breakout on our fear index. So far, nothing significant has followed to the same level of price movement: the dollar is still under its macro-uptrend resistance, the US500 is still using its macro-uptrend for support logarithmically, and the US10yr/US2yr remains under resistance.
But we want to track this closely to find out the legitimacy of this spike in fear. Confirmation can be had if one of the indicators mentioned above follows and breaks its support/resistance (see yesterday's video for more).
Best,
Stew
VIX - Take your time, hold your Vix LongEverything points 30, to say the least.
Just watch it push until then.
Reasons:
Descending Wedge target
Channel's Top Curve
Longest period without VIX spikes up
Fakeout to the downside - rejected breakout
VixCup and handle formed here... should take us to 23 ..
Not 100% on this setup.
. if you go to to your smaller time frame 5-15min and look at the handle you'll see the possibility of a double top that would take vix back to 18.55.
But handle is grinding on support and has taking a broadening wedge form.. let's see what happens
WARNING: VIX IS EXPLODING TO THE UPSIDE!I cannot stress this enough: we are going to see volatility explode really soon. From what I see from the 5 mins chart, Tuesday might see a lower opening that will be the lowest the market will see in some time. Ending diagonals are significant. And they are also incredibly reliable patterns. I had traded this pattern multiple times when I was a professional trader in a proprietary trading firm and also in a hedge fund. I cannot stress this enough. Volatility is going to explode really soon.
Please be careful.
And good luck as always.
