VIX to hit 16..17 in Janexpect SPX to hit ~4300. Structurally, this should be the last upswing before the crash.
VIX trade ideas
VIX is reapeating the patternA rule of 2 gives a perfect VIX long setup into Q1 on 2023 rally.
The markets are not over with the downside and VIX didn't get even one bottoming signal in 2022. It was intermediate bottoms, but no panic
Im going to add more VIX calls, Apr expiration this coming week.
Its in consolidation mode and should end soon with the breakout
VIX in DIAMOND BUTTOMS!!!!!On the VIX Volatility index , I have observed a diamond pattern, which suggests that the current instability in market sentiment is likely to lead to a rise in market prices. Based on this, I decided to open a long position at the entry price of USD 21.21. I have set the Stop Loss level at USD 19.53 so that if market prices turn worse than expected, I can close the position with minimal loss. And I set the Take Profit at USD 24.26 so that if the market prices reach a certain level, I can automatically close the position at the best possible price. It is important to note that this is only my own observation and does not constitute investment advice. Everyone should make decisions in the financial markets at their own risk.
SPX Long or Short VIX is on a nice support trend, if it breaks down I'm expecting to see SPX rally up to $3930.00 as my 1st TP $3960.00 2nd TP filling up the daily imbalance.
VIX Trend As we can see today the SPY bounced up from it's trendline in the morning, breaking out on a major resistance.
Two scenarios can happen tomorrow
#1
VIX bounces from the trendline causing the SPY to go down which would invalidate todays breakout and cause it to come back down. Considering that both the SPY and VIX have an opposite GAP it could go either way.
#2
VIX breaks the trendline and may come down to fill the GAP it has around the marked area. In this case we can confirm that the SPY can move up to fill it's GAP as well.
Trade safe ! I'd love to hear your input and thoughts on this.
Recession the new buzz word after today's report?For this to occur I'm assuming its a much weaker jobs report that will excite the market that inflation is largely behind us. Then earnings disappoint and the real fun begins.
Beware the sleeping VIX volatility dragonVix measures option premium levels and is associated with large fear uncertain times. Bottoms in markets often have high vix level indicating investors desire for protection and large moves in the market.
Vix update Purple line 50sma...
If we close above this, the next resistance will be trendline at 24
Starting to get overbought on the 1 hour chart and 2 hour chart...
Which means unless this is a black swan event we may cool off at 24 until FED minutes...
Personally I don't like being short equities, especially swinging when the vix becomes overbought on 1 hour..
On the day before the last CPI pop the vix was overbought on 1hour and the next day the indexes rallied 3%. Now we're going into the FED minutes overbought.. let's see what happens.
The double bottom pattern has almost fully rounded here
2 things I'll be watching
1.Qqq 260
2. Vix 24
$VIX in middle of pattern2 From $DJI recent post
While most media & people ARE RIGHT, they tagged along @ end, too much neg
I'm contrarian, this much negativity raises flags, especially when media 24/7
Still think $VIX #VIX in between pattern gives opportunity for swings before the eventual breakout
#stocks #crypto
Looking symmetricalDefinitely not an exact science, but I am bullish on VIX. FED is supposedly going for recession. I think they are, just they try to have a "soft landing". I would even argue it's smart to have soft landing, if the leverage would unwind on a single day the financial system would stop existing as we know it.
Short term VIX signalVIX might be signaling a bullish move for the index, however that is yet to be confirmed via 4 hourly close. SPX target I'm aiming for are around 3950
Synthetic Short Against the Box with TQQQ & SPXS?I created this chart to illustrate the price action of leverage ETF in relation to VIX.
The purpose is to determine whether it's possible to create synthetic version of shorting against the box, where you never short and long the shares of the same stock.
Instead someone is only ever long the shares on TQQQ with a protective PUT, and short the shares of SPXS with a call to cover.
Then using the wheel strategy as a means to generate reliable credit.
I'm very interested to so other people's observations/thoughts...
DGSTACC: VIX PREDICTION!!!!DESCRIPTION: The chart above is an analysis of the VIX and it current pattern formation of a SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE FORMATION .
POINTS:
1. Strong Support for VIX at 19.50 with current Demand Pocket Ceiling for FIB is at 25.
2. Move should occur by the 9th of January as price action would have to compress a lot more by then.
3. Current overall trend is a down trend that we have been seeing for VIX since early October.
SCENARIO #1: If break of Symmetrical Triangle occurs towards the downside expect a bounce at 19.50 .
SCENARIO #2: If break of Symmetrical Triangle occurs towards the upside expect resistance at 25 .
*NOTE: NO RECESSION HAS EVER ENDED WITHOUT A VIX SPIKE TO 45 AT LEAST.
TVC:VIX
Possible VIX support and shooting situations.Please note that there is a possibility of going up more than 37 lines when shooting this time.
VIX - idea is still clear2008 didn't repeat 1:1, but history tend to rhyme - and so it is doing right now.
VIX dropped lower than it should - very likely manipulation - but is holding a certain level - when I checked for any curve that could be adjusted to it - I noticed a small detail - 2021 fakeout.
2021 was the last push to the upside - the one that broke VIX trend - but now is holding to it once again. The channel is now clear and we are at the bottom of it.
Not bullish at all for stocks.
Vix likely to bounce up soon.
VIX is coiling, almost ready for its primetimeVIX is in triangle and needs above 24.9 to confirm the new bullish explosive move.
I do believe this will do 3x or so before the market makes its final capitulation low
Which H & S pattern breaks down first?In theory, you could make the case that AAPL and the VIX both have long term H&S pattern tops which are nearing their respective breaking (validation) points. Whichever one breaks will invalidate the pattern of the other. Which breaks first?
Vix... Fireworks 2nd week of JAN Huge double forming inside this pennant .. I also notice some large Put orders coming in on the spy between 340-350 Exp late Jan..
Vix pullbackLooking for a pullback to 20.50 before next week.. bumped and rejected off trendline again today.
S&P500 vs VIXWhen this pattern holds:
- VIX higher after making a higher low
- S&P500 lower, this happens after the higher low on VIX
VIX is on strong supportVIX seems really bullish as it retests support and broken curve trend - Expecting a bounce up - which makes me bearish for stocks and risk-on assets.
VIX is getting close to its support level, againAs mentioned before, I dont expect VIX to move till mid Jan, than i expect it to explode!
Im still long with 35 Apr calls and will be adding those to max size mid Jan as I expect the price to 3x from around here
