Vix , Stay tuneAlmost identical move to the DXY.
Pulled back to 21ema
Formed a falling wedge
Bullish target 34
T
VIX trade ideas
VIX is getting ready for that huge pop imoThis is getting super close. Wont rule out a fake down and then move up to above $60 level.
Some out there made a bet with Apr 2023 100 Calls for $4mil plus on Fri
VIX is telling you somethingVIX already broke the curve and even retested it.
We will doomp heavily in the coming weeks/months.
Don't invest long-term for now.
Volatility is coming!Vix is not looking good in the weekly charts.
Be careful about your stock positions..
Bullish vix over 30Steady up trend .
Retested former resistance Friday (White line) and bounced...
Unless we drop below 30 I'm bullish here. I think when the vix does break its uptrend the spy will break its downtrend (Inverse).
$VIX SHORT / LONG RISKThe $VIX is not breaking out here...contrary to many $VIX TA experts
we have experienced many events over the past few weeks and equities have failed to break lower, even after a CPI plunge
True FEAR and panic selling is not here yet
wait for the right time to attack the vix
CHEERS!!
Vix - bullish crossover - expect elevated vix in coming daysWe have bullish MA crossovers on the CBOE vix
In the past these crossovers have been pretty reliable and have led to extended bouts of volatility
SPX500 - bears still in controlThe failed to hold the channel trendline, so it's looking bad for bulls. A quick update on what I'm seeing with the structure on SPX, SPY and the VIX.
VIX still have room to goVIX hitting resistance around 34 but still pretty bullish and have another 9-10% room to grow targeting 37.
MAs are all in line. Overall still bullish
VIX Volatility only beginningVIX is showing higher lows and has broken above the Brim Level of a Cup and Handle.
This is problematic for a trader as it means a lot more jumpiness is coming.
It's also broken out of its downtrend on both chart and the RSI.
With the inflation rate going up, interest rates soon to go up in November and with more money going to be printed in the economy - this isn't good for the markets in the medium term.
Time to risk less per trade, I'd imagine.
MARKET THOUGHTS 10/14/22Grab a cup of coffee, wake up and read up lol
** (Not a Financial Advice, just sharing my own opinion and the process I do in the morning before I make a decision to trade.) **
As you guys are all aware the SPY went nuts yesterday, anything is possible in the market these days lol. Once the shorts got squeezed above 354 and FOMO kicked in it ran like it stole something :rofl: .
Now as you get ready for todays play here are things you should consider based on the charts and technical analysis:
- SPY, yesterday, just showed a possible sign of short term reversal from the divergence we've been talking about in the stream the whole week.
- The bounce was larger than expected and larger than usual, when a move like this happens one direction, there's a possible consolidation day the next day or pullback, unless volume continues and breaks above key levels continuing to squeeze the shorts and FOMO continues as well.
- If you are planning to go Gungho on going long, zoom out first and see the trendline on the daily and the pre-market action on SPY and where its at currently (See Chart Posted).
- Break of that trendline upwards can mean retest of the next resistance and probably even retest the next trendline up, but SPY has done its weekly range as of yesterdays candle, so slight chance it will continue breaking to the upside and do another big run. If anything, possible pump then pullback.
- The VIX on the weekly hit that trendline we talked about on the streams this week too causing the downward direction which usually does the opposite of the market, hence the run up yesterday.
** Scenario 1 ** VIX bounces above 9ema on the daily and stays above, market pullback.
** Scenario 2 ** VIX breaks below the 9ema on the daily, it will have about 1-2points max move today. Which can mean a pump in the market and will hit exhaustion, so pump and dump. (See VIX Chart Posted).
SPY
VIX
Long Volatility into AugustBy now you all know the drill. Let's start with an initial framework, assess the current environment, and evaluate all below questions.
are we trending or ranging?
- a series of higher highs, higher lows
- sellers structure is broken, we are tracking whether buyers will protect or find it difficult to hold
discount?
- we are tracking the lows for the previous wave block
- Support 20, Pivot 25, Resistance 38
managing trade?
- Trading and assess based on quarters, 00, 25, 50, 75
- Market participation in form of current strength/weakness, when market is weak we are sellers and when strong we are buyers
This position, technically speaking, is very similar to the swing we traded in 2020. Buyers have developed a structure of higher highs, and higher lows, and desire their chance to go over to a direct attack on the highs.
In this case the result is not certain; but since attacking in this fashion is characteristic of a volatility event. There are two lines, assuming the 20 support holds. In the first case, as well we need to track 25, the combinatory breakout of 25 will allow buyers to continue their summer dance with a romantic hue, unlocking 38 for August.
VIX reached target, now correctionIt looks like VIX isn't yet ready to break entirely - Double top with the second one being curvy (lack of power) - Expecting this relief to play out now.
VIX Rejects AgainVIX has had yet another rejection off the key level. This resulted in strong short covering in stocks just as retail traders all agreed that the market could never go up again and could only go down.
VIX 2 moon.I think we may now, finally, be in the cusp of the real volatility breakout.
Something that will later be referred to as a Black Swan in the indices and the VIX making its big move.
Look out for the headline, there'll probably be one.
VIX is down all day!Should of been super green from the open.
Should of pay attention to it in am, would of save me from some stops
31.50 is the support
This will blow, still coiling
$VIX CPI GAP DOESNT MOVE THE VIX?Today SPY and SPX gap down with little to no reaction in the VIX. Does this mean we have more pain to come??
VIX is in C&H patternThis is getting so close for a breakout and big market sell!
There is also smaller C&H if it hits 31 level.
Regardless of a scenario, we are very close to some real move.
I was expecting this move and wanted to see a year low hit end of Oct into early Nov.
It seems its going to play out well.
Question is only one - how low?
Is $VIX about to break out to 50? (bottom coming?)After being in a "range" of sorts for the past year or so, is the VIX about to break out to 50 and above?
If this proves to be correct, due to some unforeseen event, then arguably one can say that a bottom is near.
However, if we grind in this range, making lower lows and lower highs, then we can grind down to lower levels for... well, for quite a while, imo.
VIX is in breakout terretoryCareful here, this can explode at any time imo.
Ideally we see a quick trip below 30, but it doesnt have too.
Lets see if we can get that move down into CPI, so far its not as promising
VIX could have a turning point soonVix is bouncing in what looks to be a bullish pennant.
I think VIX is going to test the previous high at 34.85-35ish In theory this should create a double top.
Pennants can easily be bullish or bearish though depending on market sentiment and momentum really so there is a chance it breaks to the down side.
If the pennant turns out to be bearish there's a possibility it follows a harmonic pattern and then breaks out and goes back to around 37
