VIX (after today's close) is in buy zone for markets A good spike up to hit 1.618 tomorrow will be perfect to mark a temp buyable bottom.
Fear and Greed is at 18 (extreme low)
Tomorrow I start buying!
VIX trade ideas
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VIX SPX SHORT SALE SALE VOLUME PMIIdentical chart as below, but with VIX in the main panel instead of UVXY
doubt there will bear market , its corrrection expect bounce dowi personnelly feel this is dip to buy rather to exit, its what vix suggest.. multiple hurdles on upper end.so expect dow and nasdaq to reverse for bear trap..
VIX hitting resistance!Traders,
The fear index is up against resistance. Do we come down now? Data from other sources and charts is telling me we might.
Stew
Watch out for VIX breakoutThe VIX has setup this triangle pattern over the past year, if it manages to breakout of this range then I would expect a large and fast sell off in risk assets.
Another rejection here would lead to a relief rally perhaps until the VIX reaches the lower trendline.
Straddles might be the best way to play this trade.
VIX - Next Phase: FEARBased on cycles, markets can experices a lot of fear int eh next pahse.
Stocks are down, but volatility is still relatively low, we need more fear and blood on the stock market before this one can stabilize, when least expected.
Puts are already at the extremes..
Vix looks scaryVix has crossed this curve up - this is really bad - I give it a final chance to recover after NY opens (specially with dxy at local ceilings) - if not - sky is the limit here.
Reverse Head and Shoulders on the VIXReverse Head and Shoulders on the VIX. Pretty clear formation setting up with Fed tightening, consumer survey lowest ever. This is going to be pretty epic.
VIX making new highs, people were doubting a week agoI know many were doubting it can continue to rise and some were expecting lower before higher.
I think its about to explode soon, so be careful!
A some sort of a flash crash can spike this guy very high into Oct.
VIX CoilingVIX weekly MACD is close to breaking above histogram line. That's when you can see some big moves. Surprisingly low open interest on call options for VIX.
Vix Versus US PMIsA macro view of VIX versus US Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI's with a visual aid for base time cycles.
Taking note without special emphasis of the 200 Week EMA of the VIX, which may be utilized as a confirming indicator a period of continued elevated volatility.
Chart is intended as a simple visual aid for contraction and expansion periods in the US economy.
SPX vs Vix with algo helpHi Traders
Try Trident Algo Swing indicator
i use it on 30 min chart
one chart VIX, SPX on other.
nothing realy to config on indicator settings, u can disable some funtion if its to messy.
Here u can see todays action on VIX.
Good Luck
VIXUnfortunately for bulls, the VIX plan is playing out exactly as expected so far. The August breakdown was a fake out before what could potentially be a massive breakout. Still a few hours to go for this weekly close but I don't see a reversal in the cards for today. Buckle up these next few weeks/months imo.
Global Capitulation 2022-2023When capitulation arrives, markets will explode. Exploding the rampant fraud and exposing the ponzi like a pinata being popped, spewing candy out.
VIX has only been this high this many times in 25 years...Make of this what you will. I'm leaning toward a drop in VIX rather than running to great depression levels from here.
Is Volatility Incorrectly Priced?SPY is down over 20% and the VIX is at ~27!! Extremely low in relation to current market conditions. Based on the Fed’s recent economic projection , unemployment is set to rise 0.6% in 2023!!! In turn a drop of PCE inflation from 5.4% to 2.8% is projected. Implicating a US recession and a possible global recession. Pivoting Powell is donning the Volker mask and risk assets are not safe… The VIX has been making higher lows since June 2021 but is extremely low for the level of uncertainty in the market and it is currently incorrectly priced. As a recession inches closer, market sentiment will degrade and the VIX may explore its upside potential. In markets, volatility is measured in expected terms because participants speculate on future market conditions. Measures of volatility use option pricing as inputs. As volatility increases, option prices increase. Options prices are based on time duration (how long until the option expires) and price variation (how far the strike is from the current price). By aggregating this data, volatility models are able to encompass the markets expectation of price variation (volatility) in the underlying asset.
VIX:
The most common measures of Volatility is the VIX. This index is a forward looking indicator of volatility that indicates the level of uncertainty in the SPX marketplace. In more technical terms: VIX measures 30 day expected Volatility of the SPX futures market. The VIX uses SPX Option prices because SPX Options reflect the market’s expectations of future volatility. (SPX Options Puts/Calls are more expensive when volatility is higher). SPX options reflect the amount investors are willing to pay for options (put or call) indicating the expected movement in SPX. The VIX Index (also known as the sigma index) is represented as an annualized 1-standard deviation measure of return on SP500. With SPX at $400 and the VIX at 27. There is a 68% chance (1std), SPX will be -/+ 27% one year later. Calculations can also be made for the market’s expectation: for 1 month: 27/sqrt(12months)= +/- 7.8% expected move, one month later: , 1 week: 27/sqrt(52weeks)= +/- 3.7% expected move, one week later: and 1 day: 27/sqrt(256tradingdays)= +/- 1.7% expected move, one day later. As the VIX rises the future value of SPX becomes more uncertain. For context, in March 2020 the VIX reached a +/- 80% expected move in the SPX. When VIX options are incorrectly priced in relation to market conditions both bulls and bears can profit by utilizing options. Bulls can buy options on their bullish stocks instead of purchasing shares out-right because even if the underlying asset price doesn’t increase much; their option appreciates with volatility. Bears will find their put options appreciate with the increase in Volatility while, the underlying asset price falls as well.
VVIX:
Just as the VIX is calculated by using SPX options as inputs. The VVIX is calculated by using VIX options. VVIX is a measure of the change of volatility in the VIX volatility index and in particular focuses on the magnitude of SPX Volatility. When VIX is high, that means option prices of the SPX is high, which means investors want to sell premium on the VIX. (If options are expensive, there is incentive to sell options). The VVIX can be used to better understand the VIX. When VIX and VVIX are low, strategies that benefit off increased volatility (ex. Debit call spread) will benefit. VVIX is rate variable and reverts to the mean of around 70-90. VVIX just came down from 160 in January 2022 and now is at 90. Even though this is an average level, volatility should be more elevated in the midst of a tightening cycle.
SKEW:
SKEW measures the Slope of Implied Volatility which is probability that the one-month S&P 500 log-return falls two or three standard deviations below the mean. When SKEW is equal to 100, the distribution of S&P 500 log-returns is normal, and the probability of returns two standard devations below or above the mean is 4.6% (2.3% on each side); the probability decreases to .3% (.15% on each side) for three standard deviations. For every five point move in the SKEW index adds or subtracts around 1.3 or 1.4 percentage points to the risk of a two-standard deviation move. Unlike the VIX, the SKEW index looks at implied volatility of SPX Out of The Money (OTM) puts. Skew tells us that calls are expensive and puts are cheap. Skew is a measure of the relationship of OTM puts to OTM calls. SKEW is known as being the indicator of a BlackSwan Event. As demand of OTM puts rise, SKEW rises. SKEW looks prime for an upward move and the VIX will likely join.
VIX spiked, but......but came down immediately afterwards - it was scary for a second - but it still feels like it needs a retest lower parts before attempting to break to the upside.
Without a confirmed breakout - I'm expecting a higher low first.
VIX - Volatility about to creep back in the marketIn tandem with our bearish assessment of the stock market, we predict the return of increased volatility in the market. As a result, we would like to set a medium-term price target for VIX at 30 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the weekly chart of VIX.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
VIX - Back to the elevated volatilityOn 3rd August 2022, we set a medium-term price target for VIX at 30 USD. Then a week later, we updated this price target to short-term. Our view derives from the premise that the stock market ceased its bear market rally and will continue to drift lower. Technical indicators indicate intense selling pressure across major U.S. stock market indices over the short term. At the same time, bearish fundamental factors are due to persist for much longer, over the medium and long term. These factors will drive the global economy into a deeper recession toward the end of the year, causing a risk-off sentiment accompanied by elevated volatility. Therefore, we have no reason to change our assessment. Accordingly, we stick to the 30 USD price target.
Illustration 1.01
The picture shows a bullish breakout above the sloping resistance, shortly followed by an opening gap. These developments are very bullish for VIX.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the top of the bear market rally and correlation among U.S. stock market indices.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
VIX - Volatility is skyrocketingIn early August 2022, we warned that volatility would creep back into the market. Not long enough after that, the market started to sell off, and VIX skyrocketed from 20 USD to over 27 USD. Therefore, we stick to our short-term price target of 30 USD for VIX. However, we want to set a new medium-term price target at 35 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The chart shows a bullish breakout above the resistance and two opening gaps on VIX. All of these developments are immensely bullish for VIX.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
VIX - The market weakness will lead to higher volatility The market volatility is on the rise, with VIX rising over 30% since 12th August 2022. We continue to be bullish on the index as we forecast more pain for the stock market. Our view is based upon fundamental factors. Because of that, we will pay close attention to the upcoming FED meeting. Accordingly, we maintain a short-term price target for VIX at 30 USD and a medium-term price target at 35 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
VIX - LongWe continue to be bearish on the general stock market and, therefore, bullish on the VIX. Accordingly, we stick to our short-term price target of 30 USD and a medium-term price target of 35 USD. We will pay close attention to the FED meeting on Wednesday as we expect the volatility index to rise further after the meeting.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
