H&S on the VIX 2.0 If the pattern works, Monday could be quite interesting. If a premarket sell-off occurs, it is also possible to start Monday with a strong gap to the upside.
VIX trade ideas
When bottom?vix/vvix ratio correlates w spx
top in vix/vvix = btm in spx
Vix = Volatility
vvix = Volatility of Volatility
vix/vvix = rate of change in volatility
VIX - 9x8 = 72The recent market conditions have been strange. Post-Coronavirus Disease 2019 panic, everything went up in nearly a straight line for more than a year before SPX plinked 4,800, and then started retreating, within mere days of the commencement of 2022's calendar year.
During the moon run, VIX spent ten months in an area that I regarded as a key accumulation zone based on pre-pseudopandemic trading.
Despite SPX retreating 1,300 points over the course of only a few months, there was no fear. There was primarily no fear because it chopped up and down and back and forth. Even though SPX could lose 100 points in a day, it would gain it all back the next.
There was a lot of volatility, but omni-directionally, and a lot of chatter about recession, but nobody was really afraid.
During this period of time, notably, VIX never returned to the 18 level accumulation box.
So what is VIX? Everyone knows VIX is the volatility index, but its calculated based on the strike price of a range of SP500 options traded on CBOE .
Notably, all the way down throughout the year, even with January's dumps and February's when Russia invaded Ukraine, VIX never had a major spike as seen during other market corrections.
Actually, it never exceeded 39, despite taking five stabs at it before the June bottoms.
Friday's price action shows that the market is set for a real correction after a two month bear rally. I had some doubts about this on Wednesday and Thursday, but after seeing VIX retake 25 on a Friday, notable because Fridays have been "VIX Crush Fridays" lately, as everything melted down in good and proper fashion, I am confident the conditions have been cleared for a real bell ringer.
I believe that what we're about to see is some fairly epic and violent dumps below the June lows.
I foresee that a key characteristic of this coming movement is that it will happen both aggressively, and fast, which will naturally print an all new manic VIX candle.
What I have had in mind for several months is that when this happens we would just see a meager VIX 50, something like a yawn-worthy and short lived fake out dump. However, when I went to examine the chart in detail, I found that VIX 50 is the spike that was printed in the two most recent pre-COVID crashes.
Of course, 2008's scheme was 90, and some are projecting that "because recession" and "because inflation" we'll see something crazy like VIX 200, but frankly, I think this is a misunderstanding of where we're at in the bubble pop schematic.
Despite the markets' incredible retracements this year, there was no fear. We haven't had fear yet.
We're about to have fear, and it's going to come strong and fast and the propaganda machine is going to bark, and bark, and bark, all so you can panic, sell low, and get short, waiting for SPX 2,400.
This will also let the options MMs sell a lot of puts at the bottom with huge implied vol premiums that will expire worthless, and then they'll buy themselves another 1,200 square miles of farm land.
What I foresee actually happening is that when the target below June lows and above or slightly under the pre-COVID highs is achieved... we're looking at something like a 1,000 point dump counting from mid-August's 4,300 print.
Afterwards, we'll get either the "return to normal" or a Bump and Run Reversal bubble pop pattern, one that will also come fast and strong, so that everyone can buy back higher and have the happy heading into the U.S. October Midterm Elections.
Thus, I believe what we'll see VIX print is 72. It won't be as bad as COVID, and it will come up short of bear expectations and isn't going to break 2008.
But it's also going to be a lot more scary than the '15 and '18 corrections.
You might think to yourself that VIX 25 is too far away for this to happen so quickly, but the '15 and '18 runs to 50 all happened inside of just three daily candles.
If you were getting long during this two month bear squeeze and didn't dump mid August highss, you really need to ask yourself why you have such blind faith in this Ponzi.
Why do you think that you're still in the old situation where you can mash buy on SPY or QQQ or TSLA and AAPL and watch it go up in a straight line and make new highs every day without having to think or worry one bit?
That's not where we are in the diagram, and it's not the situation the world is facing. The world is in a lot of trouble. Humanity's future is in a lot of trouble.
And because of this, you're going to be entertained and placated with both a crashing market and then a mooning market, so that you can pay attention to the establishment narrative espoused on Bloomberg, Zerohedge, Reddit, Fintwit, and from 20-year-old charlatans on YouTube who make their money from ad revenue and not from trading.
And the purpose of all this is to distract you from the real meaning of your life, which is to prepare to cultivate yourselves and to prepare to return to tradition as the Chinese Communist Party is eliminated in the imminent future.
Once VIX is at 60, stop shorting and stop buying puts.
Long | VIX | EW 4h TVC:VIX
* VIX is ready for the spike to 24. be alert and adjust your positions. It matches the SPY Elliot wave analysis I published already.
VIX no new high, must watch it next week!Im looking for this to follow, still lower high since few days ago, a move above will seal the deal for new lows on the markets
Sell your Bitcoin nowRemember my last post last week about the crust of cryto..those who listen to me took their buy profit but you can still wait to buy low.thank see you at the top
VIX UVXY Reversal PatternQQQ SPY and the indices all had late afternoon Bearish Engulfing Candles Tuesday afternoon before the Fed Minutes release
I have charted the VIX as a ratio with SPY. IA down trend is persistent.
The ratio is at the lowest seen. However, RSI divergence with a slight increase in relative strength
as well as a dropping score on the Choppiness indicator both point to a reversal.
I will play this with call options on the UVXY ETF expiring on September 19th hoping to 2X the trade with
little given that the macros will hold up or raise UVXY as a bear market rally may stagnate or burn out.
What is your option?
VIX with no surprisesVIX keeps going for the retest of the broken wedge, I see more downside ahead which will be bullish for stocks and crypto.
VIX TO INFINITY AND BEYONDI'm expecting a violent move up from the VIX in the coming weeks. Market is running on borrowed time short term imo. We are one major event happening from a melt down. September is typically a bearish month. There still isn't a lot to be bullish about if you really think about it. Be safe out there everyone.
My view on vix bullish Vix downtrend is ended and its uptrend start so the zone which i marked is good place to Enter
VIX is back into it's channelInteresting if that move below the support orange line was the OPEX stop run
The Bollinger bands are about to start widening as well as turning up! Pay attention to this, as its going to go parabolic within next week or 2.
Only one thing is kinda stopping me to be fully short is the reaction of 29th low into the Sep Quarterly OPEX, then the markets are free to move big again one way or another
VIX isn't bearishAfter the HTF wedge breakout - we are expecting a retest - and it just started going down filling the gaps - although we didn't fully reach my wedge target yet. Therefore I expect it to happen after we retest the wedge (even better if we do so before that).
One thing is good here - VIX didn't go parabolic after a long bullish streak on the markets - meaning fundamentals aren't so bearish yet. It will happen, but doesn't seem just now.
We stick to the plan.
Vix regained support. Ready to launch to new highsVix is looking very strong. MacD bullish. Lowest volume all year these last few weeks. It's ready for a huge spike.
VIX has a death cross on the dailyWhat Is a Death Cross?
The "death cross" is a market chart pattern reflecting recent price weakness. It refers to the drop of a short-term moving average—meaning the average of recent closing prices for a stock, stock index, commodity or cryptocurrency over a set period of time—below a longer-term moving average. The most closely watched stock-market moving averages are the 50-day and the 200-day.
Despite its ominous name, the death cross is not a market milestone worth dreading. Market history suggests it tends to precede a near-term rebound with above-average returns. (investopedia)
Historically what happened when VIX has a death cross:
Death Cross Date. Spike date Range
8/20 2020 9/3 2020 21 to 41
11/17 2019 12/2 2019-2/25/2020 11-85
3/18 2019 3/22 2019 11-24
7/6 2018 10/10 2018 11-35
4/8 2016 6/24 2016 12-26
4/14 2015 5/6 and 6/30 2015 11-27
5/6 2014 8/1 2014 10-17
11/22 2014 2/3 2014 12-6
So statistically, When death cross is observed, VIX tend to bottom at 11's. After the bottom we tend to see a meaningful spike. Get ready for a great bull run for days/weeks.
