US TECH CASH forum
SPX 
NDX 
DJI 
VIX 
VOO Some people have been asking us today if a stock market crash is imminent. We told them: historically, the accounts that lose the most money are usually the ones with the highest trading frequency.For example, the study "Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors" found that households with the highest trading frequency had significantly lower returns. Similarly, a 2019 study on Brazilian futures contract traders showed that 97% of day traders lost money.
This pattern holds across different markets. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) reported in 2018 that 74-89% of retail CFD traders suffered losses. A 2019 study by the Korea Capital Market Institute found that only 0.5% of day traders remained profitable for more than three years. Meanwhile, a 2022 Shanghai Stock Exchange report revealed that in 2021, 80% of retail investors underperformed the market index.
Conversely, the most profitable accounts often belong to those who buy stocks and then forget they even own them! Just our personal take, not financial advice.
NAS100 I’m in a sell position on this pair huge collapse pending 🌊🌊🌊🌊
NAS100USD I tend to lean in favour of where the fundamentals are pointing in such market conditions and the reality is it is not just candles that move the charts its real world economics and business that manifests itself onto the technical on the charts, earnings have been solid and continue to to be, inflation is back again as the hot topic with rate cuts, and now the added Trumpism factor of random tariff wars, has just seen the market park up at a point of neutrality to decide its next cause of action, happy to take pips either way. As long term investors or swing position trader, of course the higher it grinds out the better.
US100 So….. our friend reacted to the expected volatility at 21845 by rejecting it and driving price beneath Thursdays low to 21456.In isolation, and as a single candle, Fridays Daily engulfing candle is bearish. We also took out Thursdays low.
Yesterday, I called out 21600, in addition to 21845 and 21945, as a price levels of interest with my belief that 21600 (Thursday’s low) could act as a potential support level but price stretched beneath it to 21450.
By the time the market closed on Friday, it appeared that we had no confirmation on any timeframe that the retracement had been completed.
On each of the last two weeks, when the price level reached 21845 on the Friday,
Price gapped down heavily on the following Monday, so the obvious move yesterday would be to take a short, hold it over the weekend, in anticipation of another big gap down. This definitely could happen!
BUT
right now I don’t think it will for 2 reasons:
1. The last two times we gapped down over the weekend from 21845, there were daily bullish fair value gaps underneath which got filled quickly by the gap down/bearish move on both occasions. And we spent the remaining week slowly staggering up back up to 21845. However, yesterdays drop has quickly filled the daily FVG created by Wednesdays and Thursdays Daily candles. There is no more Daily buying or selling liquidity for the price to chase (within the current weekly range) but there is 4hr selling FVGs above the current price but no 4hr buying FVG below the current price at the time of writing.
2. I think it is very unlikely that we can breakdown from the current weekly range 20520-22100 without collecting all of the FVGs in the range, meaning that I think we have to tap the ATH before the price decides to breakout or breakdown from the range.
I am wildly speculating that we will make either the high or the low of the month next week. My near term bias is bullish, therefore I think we will make the high of the month next week, after all 4hr FVGs above the current price have been filled.
Price is at a crossroads and it could go either way but we will find out on Monday.
I appreciate my view is contrarian but I’ve attempted to explain my rationale at least.
Let’s see what happens!
NDX US10Y 
SPY 
NVDA VOO Understanding the US 10-Year Yield and Its Impact on Equity Markets
For those analyzing equity cycles, a critical component to monitor is the US 10-year Treasury yield. This yield has an inverse correlation with bond demand—when bond purchases increase, yields tend to decline, and when bond selling accelerates, yields rise.
The Relationship Between Bond Demand and Yields
When institutional investors, central banks, or foreign governments purchase a significant amount of US Treasury bonds, demand for these bonds increases. Since the coupon payment (interest) on the bond remains fixed, an increase in bond prices results in a lower effective yield (or interest rate). This is because the yield is calculated as a percentage of the bond’s price—when price goes up, yield goes down.
Conversely, when bondholders begin selling off US Treasury bonds, their prices decrease, leading to a rise in yields as new bonds must offer higher interest rates to attract buyers.
Why Does This Matter for Equities?
• A downtrend in the US 10-year yield suggests that liquidity is increasing in the market.
• Lower yields reduce borrowing costs, making loans and mortgages more affordable.
• More money flows into investments, particularly equities, supporting higher stock prices.
• This often aligns with quantitative easing (QE) or other accommodative monetary policies that inject liquidity into the system.
• A rising US 10-year yield, on the other hand, signals a liquidity drain.
• Higher yields suggest that bonds are being sold, driving their prices down and interest rates up.
• Increased borrowing costs lead to slower economic growth and reduced corporate profits, which can weigh on stock valuations.
• This is typically associated with tightening monetary policy or a flight to safer assets, which can cause equities to decline.
Liquidity and the Stock Market
Liquidity is the lifeblood of financial markets. Equities, valuations, and liquidity all move in tandem—higher liquidity generally drives stock prices higher, while lower liquidity constrains capital flow and can lead to market downturns.
Key Takeaway
Always monitor the US 10-year yield, as it is a strong leading indicator of liquidity conditions in the US and global markets. A sustained decline in yields suggests an increase in liquidity, potentially bullish for equities. Conversely, a sharp rise in yields can indicate tightening financial conditions, often signaling equity weakness.
This perspective is not the sole driver of market cycles, but understanding this correlation can provide valuable insight into the broader macroeconomic landscape and its impact on asset prices.
NDX Market Analysis & Trade Considerations – Nasdaq 100The 21,800 level remains a critical resistance point. While we did observe some wicks and brief candle closes above this level—reaching the 21,880 region—the move lacked significant strength, failing to establish a clear breakout. Consequently, price has retraced, and we are now testing the 4-hour liquidity area at 21,488.
A key support level remains at the 21,150 daily order block (OP). A confirmed breakdown below this level could trigger a move towards the 20,700 region, a historically significant price point for the Nasdaq 100 due to multiple major touches. A decisive break below 20,700 could initiate a larger bearish wave.
Macroeconomic Outlook
From a macroeconomic perspective, the overall backdrop remains bullish. The Federal Reserve is expected to begin a month-to-year rate-cutting cycle, with GDP growth staying strong and inflation continuing to cool. This environment supports a bullish outlook for the Nasdaq.
However, valuations remain stretched, and any major news that challenges the Fed’s anticipated rate cuts could put this macro backdrop in question. Additionally, the USD remains strong, but as interest rates begin to decline, the dollar is likely to weaken, which could further support equities in the medium to long term.
Market Structure & Strategy Considerations
At present, the market lacks a clear directional trend. We are neither decisively bullish nor bearish but instead remain range-bound between 20,700 and 21,800.
For traders operating within consolidation zones:
• Short positions can be placed near the upper boundary of the range.
• Long positions should be considered at the lower boundary.
• Keeping tight stop-losses and taking profits at the opposite end of the range enhances risk-to-reward ratios.
For trend-following traders, there are a few potential setups:
• The 2-hour ascending trendline has been broken. A retest at the Monday market open could offer a short opportunity targeting 21,150.
• A clean break and retest of the 4-hour liquidity block at 21,500 could provide another short entry, with confirmation required before execution.
Alternative Market Opportunities
Personally, I prefer trading markets with clearer trends rather than range-bound conditions. For instance:
• GBP/JPY has been highly profitable this year.
• Gold has also performed exceptionally well—our macro position from 2,630 remains highly profitable.
Regardless of market conditions, the key to consistency is to stick to your trading system, understand market structure, and execute with disciplined risk management.
NAS100USD from what I can tell we are going down more before we go up for ATH ( not financial advice just what I can see )
Be prepared guys
Let’s get some money massive week ahead
Get your alarms set for when it re opens do not miss the beat
Enjoy weekend everyone 🙏🫡
NAS100 Trading is strategic gambling no matter how you want to look at it...nothing is guaranteed...Holding over the weekend can pay off nicely, but If it doesn't market could gap as much as 1000 points/pips against you + lets not forget the triple swap fees you have to pay for holding trade over the weekend..Personally I would rather have that peace of mind during my weekend.
NDQ we can witness a huge drop on Monday. target is 21000.00