ETHBTC - 2 ETH may soon buy 1 BTCBINANCE:ETHBTC is one of the most hated trades on the market right now. And based on price action from recent months and years - definitely for good reason. Ethereum is being viewed as a stale rust-bucket compared to the superior monetary properties of Bitcoin and the younger exuberance found in Solana. However don’t bet the house on that narrative continuing over the coming months. To me it seems that Ethereum may well have its time to shine once again...
Reasons to be super bullish
As crazy as it may be to say this, Ethereum can soon reach the rather insane price target of 0.5 BTC per ETH in the coming 18 months.
The pattern for the last 6 years has been one of accumulation, Wycoff Accumulation to be exact. Just look at similarities with an example pattern of GOLD posted from a few years ago, of it similarly being in deep accumulation and the price action that followed.
I’m willing to stick my neck out and say that the Wycoff (coiled) spring from the BINANCE:ETHBTC chart above has now completed, after over-shooting the downwards wedge (in white). Such an overshoot usually leads to the most volatile reversals, and is therefore one of my favorite trading patterns.
Not only that, BINANCE:ETHBTC also has a clean-looking cup & handle pattern forming, dating back to May 2018. Should that come to fruition, the minimum price target (taking the height of the cup via white arrows) would equate to 0.5 BTC. That just so happens to also perfectly coincide with the 1.414 fib level drawn.
Now, would Ethereum stop there? You’ve got to imagine so. However it may not…
BINANCE:ETHBTC 's onset to markets saw a 95x (pink arrow). Taking the same measured move, from the bottom in January 2020, would equate to a 30x move from current levels or a 55x from 2020's bottom. That would indicate a final target of 0.91 BTC, at the 1.618 fib, by around April 2026.
Another reason to suggest the selling is over, RSI is putting in a higher low, whilst price is making a lower low.
BINANCE:ETHBTC is mirroring the same setup as September 2019, with similar targets possible.
Reasons to be sceptical
We should be in a clearly bullish period, between Mar-24 to Apr-26 although we have yet to see bullish price action as of today. BINANCE:ETHBTC already enduring its bearish period from Dec-21 to Feb-24, this is unlikely to be another.
If we’re going to see the above come into fruition, we must soon see a huge uptick in volume in Ethereum in the coming days. Watch the green arrow underneath the chart to see if that happens over the coming 15-18 months.
BINANCE:ETHBTC looks to have already bounced off the 0.024 BTC per ETH. Or the 0.382 fib level (turquoise line). I expect very limited downside from here.
What might trigger a bullish change?
MSTR thanks to Michael Saylor has popularised his company as a quasi-leveraged ETF, turning the balance sheet of his company into a fast-tracked success.
Can you think of another company that is flush with billions of cash that is aligned with defi, NFT & decentralized markets and has one person on the board calling the shots for their investment committee? GameStop could well be the first public company to put Ethereum on their balance sheet and spark a huge step-change in the amount of institutional investment into ETH, over say BTC. They currently have $4.8bn in cash on their balance sheet and have yet to announce any M&A or changes to their corporate treasury.
Watch-out for catalysts, alt-season I sense is coming...
