Monthly Candle volatility growthThe market remains extremely sluggish in the seasonal flat, but there is a possibility of increased volatility this week and next. In this regard, I would like to consider the market situation and the likely prospects. First of all, in the medium term, the probability of a flat of about 100k for bitcoin and 2500 for ether prevails until the opening of the new half-year. There are no sufficient arguments for a significant break and trend towards 210k for bitcoin and 5k for ether. In addition, strong statistics for the United States began to be released, which increases the likelihood of a retest of 1900-2100 on ether and 85-90k on bitcoin. That is, until August, I am still more likely to expect a flat of 95-110k and 2250-2750 under an optimistic scenario. With a more negative picture, there remains the possibility of a major drawdown of the market until the retest of the loyalties of the first quarter on the tops.
A significant spike and bullish trend may be facilitated by the cancellation of Trump's duties voluntarily or in court, a truce in Ukraine, or the consolidation of brent above $ 69-70 while maintaining growth. In the event of a resumption of duties or a collapse of oil below $ 60, the probability of a fall in the crypt will become extremely high.
Against the background of the closing of the last bullish monthly candle and above 2500 on ether, we have technical signals for continued purchases. This week, there is a possibility of a major wave of purchases in the first half of the month with an attempt to move. However, strong US statistics are likely to continue to dampen growth attempts. Starting next week, it is worthwhile to carefully consider the volume of positions in the work due to the high probability of a market drawdown in the second half of the month. At the end of the week, I will assess the probability of maintaining purchases in the second half of the month, depending on the statistics released this week and the dynamics of oil.
To date, I am still considering the most oversold coins for scalping that have not been assigned the chess fio adx monitoring tag with possible growth waves of up to 70-100% from current levels. Fan tokens with a growth potential of up to 100-200% remain in a highly undervalued position, among which I work with atm acm city porto Lazio alpine juv. For storing funds in the medium term, quick looks interesting with the main long-term support at 0.020-21. The cos slf data pivx token can also show growth waves of up to 30-40%.
As I wrote earlier, large-cap coins, against the background of a seasonal flat and likely sales, may continue to fall slowly until August, in the absence of major growth in the tops or the index of dominance of altcoins.
