ETH $3500 or moon soon?Well she tried to break out yesterday but was rejected, and ultimately pulled back to support. that support is short-medium length running, as it has provided support here 4 times in the past month and now we are hoping for a 5th time.
But even if it breaks down here, we would be likely to see it go back down to the bottom of this ascending channel, at around $3500 depending on when we arrive there, its also the 200 (4hr candle) moving average. There is a strong likelihood that if we test this area we will hold support with double support, however in the unlikely event that support also broke down, we could be looking at heading back down to red line, which also is not unhealthy, when an asset breaks out, to come back and test its prior resistance as support, ETH never did do that.
Here is the 1 day candle charts, just to show ETH was in a year decline when it broke out into this structure we are examining closer in this write up.
Notice in the chart in this write up, the red line at the bottom, it is the dominate descending red line in that one day candle chart above.
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Something else though both ETH and BTC their order books sentiment is not so strong right now. I use CMF and i like to look at orderbooks from 10% depth of market to 100% depth of market and I watch the trendline of the asks, because, the more asks at 10-100% depth of market, thats positive sentiment, thats a lot of traders that have set limit orders expecting the price to go up. Where as when we see a rise in bids in the 10%-100% depth of market range, it means more traders are setting up to buy an anticipated coming dip, so they expect the price to drop. For ETH over the last month as the price has jumped, the asks above 10% have continued to decline and now recently the bids above 10% have started to run up. But also everything goes in waves, it would make sense that soon we could start another wave up and then its just a question of if it will be a bigger or smaller wave, indicating a growing or shrinking overarching "Greed".
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So the alternative to it breaking down here, which the recent market makes it seem more likely, is that we go back and try to break that resistance again and this time, succeed and make a nice strong run on ETH, but we have to be prepared for either.
My gut says based on the recent strength of the market, we will start to see order books push a new cycle of increased trader confidence and see a break out here instead of a break down but the data above suggests a very real potential for a a pullback here. Overall, this still appears really early in ETH's break out from its year decline, I think we can expect much higher highs in the future with the only question being, how far in the future.
As always be vigilant and adaptive, and DYOR!
