Ethereum H4 | Pullback resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementEthereum (ETH/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1,746.35 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 1,980.00 which is a level that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 1,436.95 which is a swing-low support.
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ETHEREUM trade ideas
ETHUSD potential head and shoulders bottom patternOn the 4-hour chart, ETHUSD forms a potential head and shoulders bottom pattern. Currently, we can focus on the support near 1470. If it falls back and does not break, it will be expected to rise. The upper resistance is around 1750, and the breakthrough will go to the resistance near 1956.
Bullish bounce?Ethereum (ETH/USD) has bounced off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could rise to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1,481.30
1st Support: 1,383.21
1st Resistance: 1,594.06
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The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Warning: Low Ethereum Target LoomsThe Unthinkable Target: Is $1,000 ETH Really in Play?
Suggesting Ethereum could fall back to $1,000 might seem hyperbolic to those who remember its peak near $5,000. However, the crypto market is notorious for its brutal volatility and deep drawdowns. Bitcoin itself has experienced multiple corrections exceeding 80% from its all-time highs throughout its history. While Ethereum has matured significantly, it's not immune to severe market downturns or shifts in narrative dominance.
A $1,000 price target represents a roughly 65-70% decline from prices seen in early-to-mid 2024 (assuming a starting point around $3,000-$3,500) and an approximate 80% drop from its all-time high. While drastic, such a move could become plausible under a confluence of negative circumstances:
1. Severe Macroeconomic Downturn: A deep global recession, coupled with sustained high interest rates or a major credit event, could trigger a massive risk-off wave across all assets, hitting speculative investments like crypto particularly hard.
2. Regulatory Crackdown: Punitive regulations targeting DeFi, staking, or specific aspects of Ethereum's ecosystem could severely damage sentiment and utility.
3. Technological Stagnation or Failure: Major setbacks in Ethereum's scaling roadmap or the discovery of a critical vulnerability could erode confidence.
4. Sustained Loss of Narrative: If competing blockchains definitively capture the dominant narrative for innovation, speed, and cost-effectiveness, ETH could lose its premium valuation.
5. Technical Breakdown: A decisive break below key long-term support levels (like the previous cycle highs around $1,400 or psychological levels like $2,000) could trigger cascading liquidations and stop-loss orders, accelerating the decline towards lower supports, including the $1,000 vicinity which acted as significant resistance/support in previous cycles.
While not a base-case prediction for many, the $1,000 target serves as a stark reminder of the potential downside if the current negative pressures persist and intensify, particularly within a broader bear market context. The factors currently driving ETH's weakness provide fuel for this bearish contemplation.
Reason 1: The Underwhelming Arrival of Spot Ethereum ETFs
Following the monumental success of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, which attracted tens of billions in net inflows within months of launch, expectations were sky-high for their Ethereum counterparts. The narrative was compelling: regulated, accessible vehicles would unlock a floodgate of institutional capital, mirroring Bitcoin's ETF-driven price surge.
However, the reality has been starkly different and deeply disappointing for ETH bulls. Since their launch, Spot Ethereum ETFs have witnessed tepid demand, characterized by weak inflows and, at times, even net outflows. The initial excitement quickly fizzled out, failing to provide the anticipated buying pressure.
Several factors contribute to this underwhelming debut:
• Pre-Launch Regulatory Uncertainty: The SEC's approval process for ETH ETFs was far less certain and more contentious than for Bitcoin. This lingering ambiguity, particularly around Ethereum's classification (commodity vs. security) and the handling of staking, may have made some large institutions cautious.
• Lack of Staking Yield: Unlike holding ETH directly or through certain other investment products, the approved US Spot ETH ETFs do not currently offer holders exposure to staking yields – a core component of Ethereum's tokenomics and a significant draw for long-term investors. This makes the ETF product inherently less attractive compared to direct ownership for yield-seeking capital.
• Existing Exposure Channels: Institutional players interested in Ethereum already had established avenues for gaining exposure, including futures markets (CME ETH futures), Grayscale's Ethereum Trust (ETHE, although less efficient pre-conversion), and direct custody solutions. The incremental demand unlocked by the spot ETFs may have been smaller than anticipated.
• Market Timing and Sentiment: The ETH ETFs launched into a more challenging macroeconomic environment and a period of cooling sentiment in the broader crypto market compared to the Bitcoin ETF launch window. The initial risk-on euphoria had faded, replaced by concerns about inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical tensions.
• "Sell the News" Event: As often happens in markets, the period leading up to the ETF approval saw significant price appreciation. The actual launch may have triggered profit-taking by traders who had bought in anticipation of the event.
The impact of these weak ETF flows is significant. It signals a lack of immediate, large-scale institutional appetite for ETH through this specific channel, removing a key bullish catalyst that many had banked on. It also contributes to negative market sentiment, reinforcing the narrative that Ethereum is currently out of favor compared to Bitcoin or other trending assets. Without this expected wave of ETF-driven buying, the price is more susceptible to selling pressure from other sources.
Reason 2: Derivatives Market Flashing Red - Low Interest, Negative Funding
The derivatives market, particularly perpetual futures, provides crucial insights into trader sentiment and positioning. Two key metrics are currently painting a bearish picture for Ethereum: Open Interest (OI) and Funding Rates.
• Low Open Interest (OI): Open Interest represents the total number of outstanding derivative contracts (longs and shorts) that have not been settled. While OI naturally fluctuates, consistently low OI relative to historical peaks or compared to Bitcoin's OI suggests a lack of strong conviction and reduced speculative interest in Ethereum. When traders are uncertain or bearish, they are less likely to open large, leveraged positions, leading to subdued OI. This indicates that fewer market participants are willing to bet aggressively on ETH's future price direction, especially on the long side.
• Negative Funding Rates: Funding rates are periodic payments exchanged between long and short position holders in perpetual futures contracts. They are designed to keep the futures price tethered to the underlying spot price.
o Positive Funding: When the futures price trades at a premium to spot (contango) and bullish sentiment dominates, longs typically pay shorts. This incentivizes shorting and disincentivizes longing, helping to pull the prices back together.
o Negative Funding: When the futures price trades at a discount to spot (backwardation) and bearish sentiment prevails, shorts pay longs. This indicates a higher demand for short positions (either speculative shorting or hedging long spot holdings). Consistently negative funding rates, as observed for ETH during periods of weakness, are a strong bearish signal. It means traders are actively paying a premium to maintain short exposure, reflecting widespread pessimism about the price outlook.
•
The combination of low Open Interest and negative Funding Rates creates a negative feedback loop. It shows reduced speculative appetite, a dominance of short positioning, and a lack of leveraged longs willing to drive the price higher. While extremely negative funding can sometimes precede a "short squeeze" (where rising prices force shorts to cover, accelerating the rally), the persistent nature of these conditions recently suggests underlying weakness rather than an imminent explosive reversal. This bearish derivatives landscape acts as a significant headwind, absorbing buying pressure and making sustained rallies difficult.
Reason 3: The Relentless Rise of Competing Layer-1s
Ethereum's primary value proposition has long been its status as the dominant, most secure, and most decentralized platform for smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps). However, its reign is facing its most significant challenge yet from a growing cohort of alternative Layer-1 (L1) blockchains, often dubbed "ETH Killers."
While Ethereum still dominates in terms of Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi and overall network value, competing L1s like Solana, Avalanche, Cardano, and newer entrants are rapidly gaining ground in crucial areas of network activity:
• Transaction Throughput and Fees: Many competitors offer significantly higher transaction speeds (transactions per second) and dramatically lower fees compared to Ethereum's mainnet. While Ethereum's Layer-2 scaling solutions aim to address this, the user experience on some alternative L1s can feel faster and cheaper for certain applications, attracting users and developers.
• Active Users and Daily Transactions: Chains like Solana have, at times, surpassed Ethereum in metrics like daily active addresses and transaction counts, particularly fueled by specific niches like meme coins, high-frequency DeFi, or certain NFT projects. This indicates a migration of user activity seeking lower costs or specific functionalities.
• Developer Activity and Ecosystem Growth: While Ethereum retains a vast developer community, alternative L1s are aggressively courting developers with grants, simpler tooling (in some cases), and the allure of building on the "next big thing." This leads to vibrant DApp ecosystems growing outside of Ethereum.
• Technological Differentiation: Competitors often employ different consensus mechanisms (e.g., Proof-of-History, Avalanche Consensus) or architectural designs that offer trade-offs favoring speed or specific use cases over Ethereum's current approach (though Ethereum's roadmap aims to incorporate many advancements).
The impact of this intensifying competition is multifaceted. It fragments liquidity and user attention across multiple platforms. It challenges the narrative of Ethereum's unassailable network effect. Crucially, it reduces the relative demand for ETH itself, which is needed for gas fees and staking on the Ethereum network. If users and developers increasingly opt for alternative platforms, the fundamental demand drivers for ETH weaken, putting downward pressure on its price relative to these competitors and the market overall. Ethereum is no longer the only viable option for building or using decentralized applications, and this increased competition is clearly impacting its market position and price performance.
The Path to Reversal: What Needs to Change for Ethereum?
Despite the current headwinds and the looming shadow of lower price targets, Ethereum is far from dead. It possesses a resilient community, the largest developer base, significant first-mover advantages, and a comprehensive roadmap for future upgrades. However, a sustainable trend reversal requires tangible progress and shifts across several fronts:
1. ETF Flows Must Materialize: The narrative needs to shift from disappointment to tangible success. This requires sustained, significant net inflows into the Spot ETH ETFs, potentially driven by broader institutional adoption, clearer regulatory frameworks globally, or perhaps future ETF iterations that incorporate staking yields (though regulatory hurdles for this are high).
2. Derivatives Sentiment Needs to Flip: Open Interest needs to build substantially, indicating renewed speculative conviction. More importantly, funding rates need to turn consistently positive, signaling a shift towards bullish positioning and leveraged longs re-entering the market.
3. Successful Execution of Ethereum's Roadmap: Continued progress and successful implementation of Ethereum's scaling solutions are paramount. Wider adoption and tangible impact from upgrades like Proto-Danksharding (EIP-4844) reducing Layer-2 fees, and clear progress towards future milestones like Verkle Trees and Statelessness, are needed to demonstrate Ethereum can overcome its scalability challenges and maintain its technological edge.
4. Reigniting Network Activity and Demand: Ethereum needs compelling new applications or upgrades to existing protocols that drive genuine user demand and increase the consumption of ETH for gas. This could come from innovations in DeFi, NFTs, GameFi, decentralized identity, or other unforeseen areas. The narrative needs to shift back towards Ethereum as the primary hub of valuable on-chain activity.
5. Favorable Macroeconomic Conditions: Like all risk assets, Ethereum would benefit significantly from a broader shift towards risk-on sentiment, potentially fueled by central bank easing (lower interest rates), controlled inflation, and stable global growth.
6. A Renewed, Compelling Narrative: Ethereum needs a clear and powerful story that resonates beyond its existing user base. Whether it's focusing on its superior security and decentralization, its role as the foundational "settlement layer" for the digital economy, or a new killer application, a refreshed narrative is needed to recapture investor imagination and justify a premium valuation.
Conclusion: Ethereum at a Critical Juncture
Ethereum's recent price struggles are not arbitrary; they are rooted in tangible factors: the lackluster performance of its spot ETFs, bearish signals from the derivatives market, and the undeniable pressure from faster, cheaper Layer-1 competitors. These elements combine to create an environment where contemplating a fall towards $1,000, while bearish, is a reflection of the significant challenges the network faces.
However, Ethereum's history is one of resilience and adaptation. It has weathered bear markets, technical hurdles, and competitive threats before. The path back to sustained growth and potentially new all-time highs is challenging but not impossible. It hinges on reigniting institutional interest via ETFs, flipping derivatives sentiment, successfully executing its ambitious technological roadmap to counter competitors, and benefiting from a supportive macro environment. Until these positive catalysts materialize convincingly, Ethereum may continue to lag, and the possibility of further downside, even towards the $1,000 mark in a severe downturn, will remain a topic of discussion among market participants navigating the crypto giant's uncertain future.
ETHEREUM Does it still have fuel in the tank?Ethereum / ETHUSD hit rock bottom as it entered the Support Zone of the 3 year Channel Up.
The only times it made contact with this Zone was in June-July 2022 and November 2022.
The 1week RSI is on the oversold line and technically there is no better level to buy long term than this.
Technically it should reach $4000 at least by the end of the year.
Target 1200.
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ETH - LOWER LOWS incoming - SELL OFF CONTINUESETH - Lower Lows possibly ahead given current BEARISH MARKET STRUCTURE.
From the break out below the channel, to the RETEST & CONTINUATION of BEARISH MOMENTUM / SELLS - there is a high chance these Red Candles will extend to the next PYSHC LEVEL OF 1,250
1,000 &
POSSIBLY TOUCH 750.
From there I'd prefer not to predict but I would not be surprised of a massive Bull Run off of those KEY LEVELS.
SAFE SL - ABOVE 2,000
TP1 - 1,674 - HIT
TP2 - 1,250
TP 3 - 800
ETH Long Term Prediction - Ethereum Game Plan ETH broke the bullish weekly structure and is currently retracing lower. I don’t see any signs of strength on the chart yet.
I expect the price to first hit $1250 and see a rejection there a possible bounce.
However, the real target is $870 (2022 low). That level holds significant liquidity, so I expect it to be taken out, triggering a potential capitulation. I’ll be looking for spot buys and long-term long setups in anticipation of another possible bull run.
Ethereum is Under PressureFenzoFx—Ethereum has lost 4.5% of its value today, erasing gains from the previous trading day. The immediate resistance level is $1,755, in conjunction with the 50-period SMA. The downtrend will likely resume if this level holds, targeting the previous lower lows at $1,370.
Please note that the bearish outlook should be invalidated if ETH/USD exceeds $1,755. If this scenario unfolds, the price may target $1,950.
>>> Trade ETH/USD swap free at FenzoFx Decentralized Broker.
Crypto Update - First entry successful, looking for moreWhile our first-entry zone held beautifully across the crypto board, I would love for a deeper push into demand to get filled on better and larger orders. I can see this happening in Crypto as well as the broader markets.
Yesterday was a nice push but I don't believe we're fully out of the woods for a long-term bull run.
Stay patient and wait for your entries to make sure you don't get stuck with a losing position and no funds in the reserve.
Happy Trading :)
Ethereum Struggles Below $1,700 – Is a Reversal on the Horizon?📊 ETH/USD Daily Technical Outlook – April 9, 2025
Ethereum is currently trading around $1,649, facing resistance near the $1,700 level. After a decline from the $1,800 region earlier this month, ETH/USD has been attempting to find support and establish a base. The market is at a critical juncture, with price action suggesting a potential reversal or further downside movement.
CoinCodex
📈 Current Market Structure:
ETH/USD has been in a downtrend since reaching highs near $1,800 in early April. The pair has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, indicating bearish momentum. Currently, the price is consolidating just below the $1,700 resistance, suggesting indecision among market participants.
🔹 Key Resistance Levels:
$1,700 – $1,720: Immediate resistance zone. A break above this area could signal a potential reversal and open the door for further gains.
$1,800: Previous support turned resistance. A move above this level would indicate a shift in market sentiment.
🔸 Key Support Levels:
$1,600: Psychological support level. A break below this could lead to increased selling pressure.
$1,500: Major support zone. Holding above this level is crucial for bulls to prevent further declines.
📐 Price Action Patterns:
Ethereum's recent price action suggests the formation of a descending triangle, a bearish continuation pattern. The horizontal support around $1,600 combined with descending highs indicates that sellers are gaining control. A decisive break below the $1,600 support could lead to a measured move targeting the $1,500 area.
🧭 Potential Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Scenario:
If ETH/USD breaks above the $1,700 resistance with strong volume, it could signal a reversal, targeting the $1,800 level. This move would require a shift in market sentiment and increased buying interest.
❌ Bearish Scenario:
A break below the $1,600 support could lead to further declines, with the next target around $1,500. This scenario would confirm the descending triangle pattern and suggest continued bearish momentum.
📌 Conclusion:
Ethereum is at a pivotal point, trading just below key resistance at $1,700. The formation of a descending triangle suggests a bearish bias, but a break above resistance could invalidate this pattern. Traders should monitor these key levels closely and watch for a decisive move to determine the next directional bias.
💬 Do you think Ethereum will break above $1,700, or is further downside ahead? Share your thoughts below 👇
Bullish bounce off pullback support?The Ethereum (ETH/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1,589.64
1st Support: 1,482.06
1st Resistance: 1,757.78
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ETH USD🧠 Ethereum’s Cycle Is No Mystery
📉 Dump → 🔁 Consolidation → 🚀 Pump → Repeat?
📊 Cycle Breakdown:
📌 Pump → Dump → Consolidation (CON's)
✅ Pattern repeated since 2018
✅ Consolidation zones are launching pads
✅ RSI mirrors this exact behavior every time
🔎 Now sitting inside a Fair Value Gap (F.V.G) and RSI bonus back area
⚡️Current Signals:
🔹 RSI is bottoming in the same bonus zone as before major moves
🔹 ETH price sitting on vertical support + FVG zone
🔹 Last time this setup formed? ➡️ 🚀 ETH went from ~$90 → $4,000+
🏁 What to Watch Next:
‣ Breakout from current RSI range
‣ Retest of $1,400–$1,500 support
‣ Next potential targets: $3,000 → $4,100
💡 History doesn’t repeat—but it rhymes 👀
ETH just completed its Wyckoff Distribution EventContext:
PSY—preliminary supply, where large interests begin to unload shares in quantity after a pronounced up-move. Volume expands and price spread widens, signaling that a change in trend may be approaching.
BC—buying climax, during which there are often marked increases in volume and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, with heavy or urgent buying by the public being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often coincides with a great earnings report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price.
AR—automatic reaction. With intense buying substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of the distribution TR.
ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. For a top to be confirmed, supply must outweigh demand; volume and spread should thus decrease as price approaches the resistance area of the BC. An ST may take the form of an upthrust (UT), in which price moves above the resistance represented by the BC and possibly other STs before quickly reversing to close below resistance. After a UT, price often tests the lower boundary of the TR.
SOW—sign of weakness, observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the stock: supply is now dominant.
LPSY—last point of supply. After testing support on a SOW, a feeble rally on narrow spread shows that the market is having considerable difficulty advancing. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest.
UTAD—upthrust after distribution. A UTAD is the distributional counterpart to the spring and terminal shakeout in the accumulation TR. It occurs in the latter stages of the TR and provides a definitive test of new demand after a breakout above TR resistance. Analogous to springs and shakeouts, a UTAD is not a required structural element: the TR in Distribution Schematic #1 contains a UTAD, while the TR in Distribution Schematic #2 does not.
Ethereum has been highly volatile and is rapidly losing value.Ethereum has been highly volatile and is rapidly losing value. This is not only due to actions taken by Trump but also because of the looming recession that many analysts are predicting. But will this recession truly materialize, and if so, will it also impact the crypto market?
The recession is most likely to continue affecting traditional markets, especially financial firms. Tech companies have already suffered significantly and may face an additional decline of up to 20%. Ethereum will also be affected, as it is not classified as a digital currency but rather as an asset—primarily due to U.S. regulatory policies.
This means Ethereum is tied to recessionary trends. Since the crypto market hasn't yet entered its own growth cycle, which is still expected to come, we may still see a short-term drop in price down to around $831. After that, our mid-term price targets are up to $2,460.
Ethereum - Short Term Sell Trade Update!!!Hi Traders, on April 8th I shared this idea "Ethereum - Expecting Retraces Before Prior Continuation Lower"
I expected retraces and further continuation lower until the two Fibonacci resistance zones hold. You can read the full post using the link above.
The bearish move delivered, as expected!!!
If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.