Bottom is in? Maybe. Trap? Maybe. Trading it.Looks like ETH is picking up some bullish momentum as i expected.
We have several signs that we have a buy oppertunity here.
One key sign is the double bottom formation, on top of that we're very close to completing a inverse head and shoulders pattern, all of this is happening inside a ascending triangle - so the bullish signs are definitly there.
The fact is however that this market is very unreliable, as many patterns I have seen play out as expected, many of them have not.
In my "ultimate ethereum chart" i said that there was a 70% chance that we would rise, and we did.
My conservative target has already been met, which was 340~350, the next target would be 360.
I'm gonna take a leap here and say that there is a 60% chance that we will continue to rise, with a target close to 390.
I entered a long position between 310-325 where i got in at a full position. However I prematurely closed it at 333, which in hindsight was a poor decision, since i highly believed that we could climb, but my hands got weak after we got that agressive push down. I still profited off the trade which is the important part. It's not easy to stay strong when you're trading inside a bear flag, even if the're bullish signs there.
So what about the other 40%, yes, we can still make a drop but i see no immediate reason for this right now, but this market is not rational so anything can happen. There is a lot of manipulation and big whales that are playing their games to confuse traders and influence/supress the price.
If we are looking at the classic "Wall Street chart", we are currently at the end of capitulation and not at dispair yet.
If this bear flag decides to break down, we are in for a deep ride down. The target is somewhere around 200€, but support could step in anywhere between 300 and 200 to stop it from fully reaching it's potential.
All in all, the odds are in our favor (bulls), we have held 300 but we have not yet seen any large pressure there, and the volume has been lackluster.
However I don't see any reason for us to try this area again immediatly, but the breakdown from the bearish flag could be fast and harsh.
I also argue that we are seeing distribution rather than accumulation right now given the trend, some say we're seeing accumulation and that may be the case, but since the volumes are low I'm still not sure about anything.
But right now we're riding on some bullish momentum and I will go long with it and set a strict stop loss.
