Important midweek ETH update.In just four days, ETH has impressively climbed 19.37%, achieving a substantial trading volume of 34.9 million, indicative of both renewed interest and heightened speculative activity. This sharp move follows two intensely impulsive trading days that thrust price upwards aggressively, followed immediately by two days of intermittent volatility and macro consolidation—perfectly manifesting the anticipated Bart Simpson pattern previously identified and traded with clinical precision.
Our initial boundary of the macro distribution zone at 2470 marked a critical juncture. ETH faced vehement rejection here, forming a violent wick as price sharply retraced, providing us with the ideal entry for our hedge short. This level—keenly highlighted in prior analyses—initiated a cascade of rapid selling pressure, driving price down with impressive velocity and ferocity directly into the pre-established supply zone. This pullback validated our short, subsequently propelling price downward into demand territory at approximately 2380, where immediate liquidity absorption occurred, confirming demand strength.
Notably, ETH’s rapid recovery during the early Asian session surged back towards the optimal trade entry (OTE) region of the redistribution zone, affirming both market efficiency and the dynamic liquidity interplay present. This cyclical behavior reinforces the significance of clearly defined supply and demand zones, which have acted as robust reference points throughout this trading period.
At this juncture, ETH finds itself at a critical crossroad—a profound decision point characterized by considerable uncertainty. Three distinct scenarios now dominate trader psychology and technical rationale:
Liquidity Hunt Scenario: ETH could swiftly retrace to retest the mean, specifically targeting liquidity pools located near the spring wick from the latest impulse. Such a move would serve to shake out weak longs and solidify the market structure before another upward thrust.
Continuation Scenario: A bullish advance could propel ETH towards testing the upper boundary of the overarching macro symmetrical triangle, aligning with continued momentum and suggesting further bullish intent supported by current oscillatory readings.
Worst-Case Scenario (LL Scenario): The alternative, more extreme scenario involves ETH breaching structural integrity, aggressively flushing out late entrants with a sharp lower low (LL). While perceived as unlikely given recent volume and market resilience, this outcome cannot be discounted—particularly given global macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.
Several exogenous factors compound this uncertainty, most notably ongoing international conflicts and recent market sensitivities tied to off-the-cuff comments from influential figures such as former President Donald Trump. These events amplify volatility potential, exerting tangible influence upon investor sentiment and market positioning.
Analyzing the market structurally, ETH price action is now interacting directly at the apex of the current triangle structure, precisely aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent range—a pivotal area frequently respected by both algorithmic and discretionary traders. Complementing this technical view, oscillators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently hold a neutral stance at exactly 50%, highlighting equilibrium in buying and selling pressure and reinforcing the indecisive nature of the current market environment.
However, adding weight to bullish sentiment in the near term, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) presently indicates upward momentum, suggesting possible further upside if sustained during today's London and subsequent New York sessions. Consequently, immediate trading decisions should remain sensitive to intraday price behavior around these critical junctures.
If you've closely tracked my analyses—especially the detailed insights shared in the recent macro Bart Simpson formation update—you'll likely have secured the short precisely at the 2503 rejection point, efficiently hedging against any potential drawdown from open long positions established lower down. This strategy exemplifies disciplined trading, strategically balancing risk and reward, capitalizing on clearly defined market structures and critical levels.
Summarizing the current state of play with utmost clarity, ETH stands delicately poised between bullish confirmation and bearish capitulation. Intraday sessions in the coming hours, notably London open and subsequently New York open, are expected to provide the decisive directional impulse. Traders should actively monitor price response at these critical levels, maintaining protective hedges where necessary while remaining flexible and adaptive to emerging market dynamics.
In conclusion, ETH’s immediate trajectory hinges upon nuanced market reactions at this strategically significant confluence point. Stay vigilant, as ETH approaches a potentially transformative decision—one offering both substantial opportunity and considerable risk, contingent upon disciplined execution and strategic clarity in your trading approach.
