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EURAUD trade ideas

EUR_AUD (135 Pips)Fundamental Analysis The EUR/AUD pair has been under pressure recently, hitting an 18-month low last week. Several factors are influencing this movement: 1. Eurozone Economic Weakness: The Eurozone continues to face economic challenges, with industrial production declining by 2.0% in September compared to August. This contraction is driven by a decrease in capital goods and energy output, which outweighs gains in consumer goods . Additionally, the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence remains negative, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty . 2. Australian Economic Resilience: In contrast, Australia's economy shows signs of resilience. Although the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% in October, employment growth was lower than expected . However, the Australian dollar is benefiting from strong sentiment across FX markets and a relatively stable economic outlook. 3. Monetary Policy Divergence: The European Central Bank's cautious approach contrasts with the Reserve Bank of Australia's stance. While the ECB has cut rates earlier than the Federal Reserve, their future moves remain uncertain . Meanwhile, the RBA's potential rate cuts are not expected until early 2025 . Technical Analysis The EUR/AUD pair is showing a bearish trend, having broken below several key support levels: - Support Levels: The pair has fallen below 1.6100, with further support seen at 1.6003 (October 2 swing low) and potentially down to 1.5848 (June 15, 2023 low) . - Resistance Levels: Resistance is likely around 1.6125 and 1.6200, which were previous support levels now turned resistance . The technical outlook suggests a continuation of the bearish trend: - Head-and-Shoulders Pattern: A head-and-shoulders pattern has emerged, indicating potential for further downside if the neckline around 1.6200 remains unbroken . - Moving Averages and Indicators: The pair is trading below key moving averages, including the 200-period moving average on the H4 chart, which indicates a bearish bias . The MACD and Parabolic SAR also signal selling opportunities . Outlook for the Week Given the current fundamental and technical landscape, EUR/AUD is likely to remain under pressure in the coming week. The pair could trade within a range of: - Lower Bound: 1.5848 (next significant support level) - Upper Bound: 1.6200 (key resistance level) Traders should monitor upcoming economic data from both regions: - Eurozone: Any updates on industrial production or investor confidence could impact the euro. - Australia: Employment data and any changes in RBA policy expectations will be crucial. In summary, unless there is a significant shift in economic data or central bank policies, EUR/AUD may continue its downward trajectory towards lower support levels. Citations: fxpro.news www.oanda.com www.ifcmfx.com www.actionforex.com paxforex.org www.teletrade.org paxforex.org Trade (Highest Probability): - Entry: Sell at 1.6160 - Stop Loss: 1.6190 (30 pips) - Take Profit: 1.6025 (135 pips) - Rationale: This trade aligns with both technical and fundamental factors. The level represents a key resistance zone, and the bearish trend supports a rejection at this level. The head-and-shoulders pattern and below-MA trading support this direction.
Short
by NYHTSTAR
EURAUD selling Trading IdeaHello Traders In This Chart EUR/AUD 4 HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today EUR/AUD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (EUR/AUD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on EUR/AUD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Long
by ForexMasters2000
MY EURAUD SHORT IDEA 24/11/2024NOTE: THIS IS JUST A TRADE IDEA WHICH I MAY OR MAY NOT TAKE DEPENDING ON THE OPPORTUNITY PRESENTED, PRICE ACTION, AND ECONOMIC EVENTS THAT MAY HAPPEN. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH! If text is glitchy please use this link regal-marlin-2d3.notion.site ! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com) President Question Template: 1. Why do you want to trade at the first place? 2. Did you take into account the current market condition, data, high impact news and what’s going on? 3. Even if you made your FA few weeks ago, you **MUST** keep on track and update it time to time. 4. Don’t just have a bias from four weeks ago and execute a trade today based on that you had four weeks ago. So it all started looking at www.myfxbook.com and I looked at the heatmap where it showed bearish in all time frames for EURAUD especially in the Monthly. ! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com) This gave me an idea to start shorting the currency. I looked at the chart and what I found is every economic event and data is bearish for the EURO. To support my claim you can see see that there there are many events happening on the chart and every event is putting pressure on the price. ! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com) Now it is very important for me to take into account what James says here. www.elitetraders.io > **EURO Macroeconomic Factors:** > > > Eurozone growth remains sluggish, with subdued inflation limiting the European Central Bank’s (ECB) ability to pivot hawkishly. Trade challenges persist, especially with the potential for US tariffs on European goods. > > ‍ > > **Key Drivers:Wage Growth:** > > Higher-than-expected wage growth in Germany provides mixed signals for inflation. > > ‍ > > **Geopolitical Risks:** > > Ongoing trade tensions with the US and challenges in the energy sector weigh on sentiment. > > ‍ > > **Outlook:Short-term:** > > Limited upside amid weak macro data and geopolitical concerns. > > ‍ > > **Medium-term:** > > Gradual recovery if energy prices stabilize and ECB policies support growth. > > ‍ > > **Long-term:** > > Structural reforms and green transition initiatives could underpin stronger growth. > > AUD > **Macroeconomic Factors:** > > Declining energy prices and a weaker Australian-US interest rate spread have pressured the AUD. Domestic growth concerns persist, with a softening labor market and mixed performance in commodity exports. > > ‍ > > **Key Drivers:Monetary Policy:** > > The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains cautious, with markets pricing in a lower probability of rate hikes compared to peers. > > ‍ > > **Commodities:** > > Iron ore, a key export, faces headwinds from reduced demand in China, while the broad commodity complex shows mixed signals. > > ‍ > > **Outlook:Short-term (Next Week):** > > A slight rebound may occur if risk sentiment stabilizes globally, but volatility remains tied to Chinese economic data. > > ‍ > > **Medium-term (Months Ahead):** > > Modest appreciation expected if China's stimulus measures translate into higher demand for Australian exports. > > ‍ > > **Long-term (2025):** > > Structural improvements in trade balances and diversification in export markets could support AUD recovery. > According to what James has said, AUD will face some volatility in the next week for the short term according to risk sentiment stability and Chinese economic data. In the Medium term it depends on China’s stimulus measures which could translate into higher demand for Australian exports. As for EURO there are many weak macro data and geopolitical concerns with fear of US tariff on Euro. Euro must find good recovery in Energy prices in order for it to stabilize. Sentiment: ! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com) ! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com) ! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com) ! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com) ! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com) ! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com) COT DATA EUR: ! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com) ! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com) AUD: ! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com) ! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com) So according to the sentiment data, we can see clearly that retail traders are favoring longing the position probably due to past price action where it bounces off of the price level 1.60425 and create a support zone. But even if hypothetically there is a support zone this zone is most likely about to get invalidated. Price is below 200 EMA signaling a bearish price action for the EURAUD and we can see lower lows on the RSI. As for the COT and SMART money we can notice that they are buying AUD and selling the EURO due to negative economic status on the EURO. ! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com) Order book is showing 37 ASKS position vs 24 at the 1.62 zone. Signaling more Sell positions are present at that level giving a solid resistance zone. ! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com) Calendar: ! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com) AUD CPI expected to be 2.5% by WED NOV 27 which is BULLISH especially if the number is higher than 2.5%. ! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com) EUR German Prelim CPI m/M ! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com) We can notice that that inflation is cooling down. Correlations: I noticed negative correlation with AUDUSD and AUDCAD but there is also a positive correlation with EURJPY. ! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com) ! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com) ! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com)
Short
by stingotho
EURAUD Movement Influenced by Chinese Government NewsEURAUD Movement Influenced by Chinese Government News On the 4-hour chart, EURAUD completed a Head & Shoulders pattern, indicating that further price depreciation is likely. The bullish momentum on the Australian dollar (AUD) was triggered by news that Chinese government advisers are recommending stronger fiscal stimulus to mitigate the impact of expected U.S. tariff hikes on the country's exports. These measures could push EURAUD down to 1.6040 and 1.5900 in the coming weeks. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Short
by KlejdiCuni
6
EURAUD is in The bullish DirectionHello Traders In This Chart EUR/AUD 4 HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today EUR/AUD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (EUR/AUD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on EUR/AUD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Long
by ForexMasters2000