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FCEU1! trade ideas

EUR at key 4h level ahead of GDP report EUR pulled back to 4h MA50. We are coming up on the Memorial Day holiday which will keep markets closed on Monday, May 31. That could bring some added volatility with traders readjusting positions ahead of the long weekend, as well as critical data coming up next week, including the May Employment Report. Fundamental analysis With 50% of the U.S. adult population now fully vaccinated and most states close to fully reopened, it seems reasonable to say we are entering the early stages of the post-pandemic era. One of the key themes that has driven bullish momentum in EUR during the pandemic is that we were headed toward a post-pandemic economic boom fueled by cheap and easy money, cheap energy costs, and a lot of available (aka cheap) labor that weakened USD. In reality, energy is kind of cheap-ish, but labor is not so readily available or cheap, and the "cheap and easy" money provided by the Federal Reserve may not last as long as some expected. In fact, money could get more expensive if inflation starts running even hotter and the Fed is forced to raise interest rates. The landscape is of course still evolving so the "trifecta" of cheap and easy energy, labor and money could still happen but investors are definitely reassessing, which is partially reflected in this long consolidation period that stock market has recently been stuck in. The labor market has been one of the biggest puzzlers and investors hope the May jobs report next Friday will provide more clarity. Many economists are dialing back their expectations for the labor market, including some Federal Reserve officials. St. Louis Fed president James Bullard said this week that +500,000 jobs a month is a realistic expectation versus the +1 million some had been hoping for. Dallas's Robert Kaplan warned that a rate closer to last months gain of +266,000 could be repeated in May. Typically, a weak labor market would mean an accommodative Federal Reserve. Instead, that weakness along with numerous supply chain issues and materials shortages has been contributing to inflation pressures that some fear could be long-lasting. It's hard to overstate the extreme level of uncertainty this has created for investors. Technical analysis The 4h MA50 is the consolidation zone now. If the current range holds, the bulls will target new higher highs between 1.231 and 1.235. A lot depends on today’s data. I will not be surprised to see increased volatility. And if current support fails, bears will target 4h MA200. Ahead of the GDP report it makes perfect sense to reduce your exposure and trade after the market digests the news.
CME:6E1!
by Inna-Rosputnia
What is happening with the economy and what does it mean for EURCovid has largely taken a back seat on markets expected to be fully open this summer. The situation is not as bright in some other parts of the world but for now, investors don’t seem overly concerned. Most Western countries are on a similarly positive track as the U.S., but as we are learning, bringing the global economy back online is a lot more complicated than shutting it down. Fundamental analysis Getting both products and workers where they are needed continues to be a massive challenge and one of the results has been a wave of higher prices. The Federal Reserve expects these disruptions to start easing later this year. However, there are a few supply shortages that can’t be solved quickly and will likely linger into 2022, such as computer chips and lumber. Meaning the higher prices and shortages in those items can and is spilling over into other channels. The mere “perception” of inflation may be driving price spikes as well. Some economists have been pointing to commodity prices which they believe are partially roaring higher because investors are putting money into them as an inflation hedge and creating somewhat a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is a pattern definitely seen in Treasuries this year with yields on the benchmark 10-year waxing and waning in step with inflation headlines. Likewise, the “perception” of a high inflationary environment along with a more hawkish Federal Reserve could also spur analysts to start slashing earnings expectations, in turn pushing more stock investors to the sidelines. Regional manufacturing indexes this week added to the inflation worries with the prices paid components in the Philadelphia survey hitting levels not seen since the 80s while New York’s hit all-time highs. At the same time, both surveys reflected a slowdown in manufacturing activity which is thought to be the result of supply chain bottlenecks. The declines were not due to a slowdown in demand as unfilled orders spiked in both regions. Data today includes Flash PMI for May and Existing Home Sales. Looking a little further out, key reports that inflation watchers have on their radar include April PCE Prices due out next Friday, which is considered the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge. Also, the first week of June will bring ISM inflation gauges for both the manufacturing and services sectors, as well as the May Employment Report. Technical analysis MA50 on the 4h chart held. The price action is neutral now. If price finally breaks the 1.225 resistance, bulls will target 1.2310 and 1.234 in extension. On the other hand, if the ma100 on the 4h chart breaks, look for the ma200 on 4h and daily ma50. The range between mentioned levels is no man's land and difficult to trade.
CME:6E1!
by Inna-Rosputnia
EUR Futures Are Pulling Back Ahead Of FOMC – What’s Next?Exploding consumer demand has helped usher in material and labor shortages that are not only driving up costs and fanning inflation worries, they are also reducing manufacturing output. Fundamental analysis That means fewer pieces, parts, and finished goods sold all the way through entire supply chains. Companies may be able to offset higher costs and lost sales through price hikes on some things, but bigger-ticket items like cars, appliances, and even houses will be more difficult to make up for in growth. Lost sales for the service industry really can’t be made up, so businesses like restaurants or hotels that are understaffed may not be able to fully capitalize on the reopening boom. The reopening is also bringing a shift in how consumers spend their money. Walmart, for instance, reported e-commerce sales growth of +37% for the first quarter, which was down from a +69% gain in the fourth quarter. Analysts are taking this and other reports of slower online sales as confirmation that the blistering growth witnessed during pandemic lockdowns is not sustainable. Investors have largely expected online shopping growth would moderate this year but are still trying to figure out what the “new normal” might be. Before the Covid-19 crisis, e-commerce sales were growing at about a +15% annual rate. Additionally, investors are unsure whether lower online sales will be offset by in-store sales growth. There is some expectation that more consumer spending will migrate to the services sector as travel, dining, and live entertainment all become options again. Hence, the still ongoing rotation out of some of the pandemic darlings and into sectors and companies that might have more growth potential as the economy reopens. FOMC “minutes” The economic highlight will be the “minutes” from the Federal Reserve’s April FOMC meeting. The bank last month left its extremely accommodative monetary policy unchanged, saying the U.S. economy still needed to make “substantial further progress” toward its goals. Keep in mind, one of those goals is “full employment” which the Fed has never really provided a hard number for. However, after March’s jobs report showed a surprisingly strong +916,000 gain, Fed Chair Jerome Powell did say he wanted to see a “string of months” showing the same strength. As we know, the April employment report only showed a gain of +266,000 new jobs. At the same time, there are growing concerns that the Fed is “behind the curve” in regard to inflation with higher prices now popping up all over the place. Analysts will be looking for hints in the minutes that Fed members may be shifting their stance a bit or perhaps getting more nervous about inflation. I should also note, there will likely be an unusually high level of scrutiny given to the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index today. Technical analysis The EUR futures tested 1.2240 resistance which has been bulls’ swing target for some time. There is no surprise we see a pullback. It is advised to reduce exposure ahead of the FOMC meeting. The new direction will be clear once the market digests the FOMC statement. In general, failure to break the resistance mentioned above can bring the price down to ma50 and ma100 on the 4h chart. And if it finds support there, we can expect a new higher high near 1.23100
CME:6E1!
by Inna-Rosputnia
The psychology of failure in trading Part 3 3.29.21 The psychology of failure in trading Part 3 . 1) If you actually trade You will find yourself in a trading funk from time to time. These are very stressful times when you can't do anything right, and you know down deep that you are uncomfortable with every decision whether it is finding a trade location or a stop, or target. You can even find opportunity because nothing you are doing is working out... and you know it. The thought of one more losing trade is unbearable. You feel no confidence in any aspect of your trading. This can even happen after a long period of conscientious study of the market. It is very demoralizing when you've had a recent history of losing trades and nothing is working out despite all your effort. Personally, I think it's a lot easier to work out of a funk if you've had significant success in the past, but if you don't have a convincing period of time of successful trading, then you haven't really proven to yourself that you are good trader. There are other reasons to stress out over losing trades and one of the most common reasons is insufficient amounts of risk capital. When you're in a trading funk, you may be conditioning yourself in such a way that it is hard to avoid losing trades, and may be even more prone to make trading mistakes. This is a horrible period of time in your trading. You may find that you will not trade, and you may even choose to change trading systems when the problem is really more related to your personal psychology. The irony of this is that when you're a losing trader, the chances are you will not pick another trading system and actually make money. However, you will look for other systems and never resolved the personal issues about how you analyze the market and that deeply ingrained suspicion that you don't know what you're doing and that trading feels as if it's almost hopeless. If you don't deal with your personal psychology, you may find that you work very hard after you find another trading system, but at some point you will run into a trading funk and because you have not dealt with your personal psychology you will fail at this system as well. Some trading systems are worse than others, but you'll never really get to that understanding because you never really get to know how markets work, and you've never learned about the things that don't work in trading systems. And it is very hard to find people who actually know what they're doing, and actually make any significant amount of money trading... Other than people who make a lot of money offering trading advice and trading systems, and that is a different business than actually making money trading your own capital. When you run into a trading funk, you have to to deal with it. You have to stop trading and then analyzing your behavior, and your calculations about the market during these periods of time. You must ask all the questions that need to be answered. This includes asking the question: is this actually a good trade location for me to be a buyer? If your answer is I don't know... Then why are you taking the trade? You do this not just for the entry, but you ask: do I have a reasonable stop? You ask: do I know what a reasonable target is? If you take a trade and you don't know any of this information, you have to ask yourself: why am I thinking about taking a straight? You ask yourself: why am I uncomfortable about everything? In short, you have to go back to basics. You question everything. You have to be patient and avoid impulsive trading until you feel comfortable with certain patterns and have demonstrated this one a dozen paper trades. It is this set up the accounts. You have to have the market that defines the buyers and the sellers, and the markets that have good stops and enough volatility to drive the market to your target. Trading fonts can be a disaster and you must reprogram some of the things that you are doing and some of the interpretations that you make about the market which are not correct. Generally, going to an entirely new trading system randomly will not change things for you. You must look at the market in a more "personal" way. I try to do that in the videos. Professional trading firms spend a boatload of money for their traders to work with some of these principles with skilled professionals because there is so much money at stake they will pay a lot of money for anything they think will help their traders. Professional firms do this so you should expect to include this type of learning in your own trading if highly successful trading firms use these techniques.
CME:6E1!
by ScottBogatin
1
EURO FX FUTURES 4 Hours* Detailed technical analysis : * According to the Elliott rule, the price is in a corrective phase because it is at the beginning of the formation of the third wave of corrective waves after the end of the five impulsive waves = So we conclude that the price will continue to collapse. * The price formed the butterfly model, which is one of the harmonic patterns that is still not completed, but it was confirmed after all its rules were fulfilled. * According to all that has been observed, the price will collapse until 1.14925.
CME:6E1!Short
by TRADIN_GR