FCEU1! trade ideas
Euro buysbuying euro been stalking this trade for a little bit now feel comfortable in entering now, hopefully fed meeting tomorrow goes our way
stalking eurowatching euro closely want to see if we can defend the 30 MA (Orange MA) a push lower then October lows (Blue Rectangle) would be invalidation. I'm not ready to enter a position will be looking to take my shot Wednesday during FED FOMC
Euro Futures ShortLooking for re-entry on previously tested supply zone. Since it's been previously tested I've set an activation rule at 1.11130, so I will enter the trade as I leave the zone. Conservative target and a runaway target farther out because closer demand was completely blown through before price turned in its favor.
Entry: 1.11100 (Activation @ 1.11130)
Stop: 1.11220
Target 1: 1.10495 (R:R=4.8)
Target 2: 1.09800 (R:R=10.4)
In Shorting RegionIntraday bias is to look to sell the top of the day while it's in the prior wick zone. This is an area that can produce big targets to the down side because the next leg will the the 5 wave and the most logical andrew's pitchfork target is the median line.
Failed Break, Looking for a Flag then ContinuationFailed break below 1.10 which is longer term support. Looking for a Flag to form then a break above 1.104.
Short When Back At Pitchfork EdgeRight now there's no trade but once it makes it back to the wick region around the upper edge of the pitchfork I'll be looking to get aggressively short.
Target of the median line itself is maybe kind of unrealistic but that's what the elliot wave count and pitchfork rules would tend to suggest.
Fed eases - long euro dollar futures This is a long term trade. The POTUS wants lower rates going into the election to continue to prop up the stock market. This will hurt the US dollar and move the ED higher. As the fed continues to cut, it will continue its move higher . Chart wise, this is confirmed at these levels due to support lines.
6E Was Bearish As Expected But While I Wasn't LookingPost mortem on a trade that I only broke even on but had charted almost perfectly (see attached chart and trade log)
I was basically a day early on location of the B wave. The trade I took was up over $400/contract at one point but then chopped back to my entry and I lost interest in the trade. I just checked it again and it pretty much followed the path to my C as expected, in fact it dumped faster that I thought.
This type of time frame is more difficult for me, I usually trade to be flat by the end of the day or for much longer positions that last weeks or years. Picking an entry on a 1 or 2 day timeframe is kind of in between I need more experience to get the execution correct even though the elliot count is right. 6e is especially hard since it trades the best in the very early morning.
Going forward it still has room for bearishness on an intraday basis but this would no be good to swing trade.
It's near the end of the C wave and likely to chop back to the top of the pitchfork. However it is also possible that it will try to run to the median so if I trade this at all it will be with a bearish bias.
Upcoming supply and demand levels on the Eurodemand level around 1.10750
supply level around 1.11500
ALWAYS FOLLOW THE MONEY BIAS (long prevailing trend)Never sell in a strong bullish trend
Wait Month PIVOT BREAK OUT BEFORE TO SELL here EURO FUTURES
(MONTHLY PIVOT RED LINE here above)
Strongly Bearish After Doji B Point At Pitchfork EdgeToday's doji candle strongly looks like the bearish B point of the ABC after the recent 5 wave impulse that ran into the edge of the descending pitchfork. I don't normally trade after hours but this looks very hard to resist. I am going to possibly stay up all night to trade this short or at least set some alerts to wake me up if things start to look like it's capitulating.
6e tends to get its best trading done during the london session so I may find myself getting up at 3 in the morning to keep tabs on this.
Avoid trades here - may be at A bounce pointThis is not a good area to take trades in either direction. It is at the expected A after a 5 wave elliot impulse and is probably about to start a choppy countertrend wave to the B point near the edge of the pitchfork.
The trade I'm waiting for is to short in the region of B. That should provide for some nice clean intraday dump outs. 6e tends to move a lot during the london session so I might even stay up at night to trade it around the 2nd week of november.
ABC Correction Playing OutABC correction posted in earlier attached chart is working as expected. Looking for continued bearishness until it tags the support zone defined by the previous 3 point and then looking for the usual B and C movements. The B point will be an especially good place to look for swing shorts because it is also confluent with the edge of the long term pitchfork edge.
Week Plan: Reasonable Area To Find Reversal DownThe pitchfork, elliot fib and prior support/resistance lines show this would be a pretty good area to start looking for bearishness.
An Elliot ABC correction would be the most textbook reaction here. Not shorting this blindly but will trade with a bearish bias intraday.
There has not been any actual confirmation of a new bear market so this would definitely not be a place to swing trade it short. It is also a very bad area to swing trade long since it would probably be buying at the top.
Use caution on longs - at edge of bearish pitchfork and S/RIntraday bias is to be skeptical of bullish moves and more looking for range contraction and then reversal back south. It's coming into a lot of prior support areas which will tend to act as resistance now.
Also at the pitchfork edge which is a great area to find head and shoulders patterns to short. I will be keeping my eye on this to find a right shoulder.
EURO FX long position
The EURO FX failed to complete the double-bottom pattern.
Therefore, the buying position will proceed at the bottom of the upward parallel channel considering the possibility of parallel channels.
Bearish 1.1135 to 1.119Support to resistance style chart. Look to fade attempts to break through back into the prior large range.
Not really the most interesting price action intraday. GC and CL have been better trading. 6e has been choppy and sporadic. The main problem is almost all the movement on 6e has been during the london session and it's barely worth the bandwidth to download data during the day. This is probably more suited for swing trades rather than day trades unless trading at 3 am new york time is convenient.
