EUR/JPY's big move today may just be the start...I'm eager to hear thoughts on this topic.
The 'text' box in the chart says it all.
JPY continues to be the 'safe haven' currency in market-mayhem episodes, just like we're seeing today as the equity markets crater. Add to that the 'ol "carry trade" effect...Yen has been the currency of choice for carry-traders, borrowing in Yen at near zero interest rates (NZIR) and investing almost anywhere else at higher rates. That party comes to an end, likely, the minute the Yen starts appreciating, which could happen as these trades begin to be unwound in the face of pain in other markets (read: margin calls!), and/or as the BOJ starts to fade on its Near Zero Interest Rate policy due to rising inflation in what is, other than the auto sector, a heavily import oriented society! Either way, the current weakness of the Yen will likely be left in the rearview mirror.
I invite commentary and discussion on this, as thoughtful views will touch on both the fundamentals from a global-macro perspective and technicals.
(DISCLAIMER: This is NOT advice in any way, not by intent nor by suggestion! It is solely educational and entertainment content.)
FCEYZ2026 trade ideas
EURJPY Fundamental Analysis – October 15th 2019Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Euro trades:
French CPI: The French CPI for September decreased by 0.3% monthly and increased by 0.9% annualized. Economists predicted a decrease of 0.3% monthly and an increase of 0.9% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the French CPI for August which increased by 0.5% monthly and by 1.0% annualized. The French Harmonized CPI for September decreased by 0.4% monthly and increased by 1.1% annualized. Economists predicted a decrease of 0.4% monthly and an increase of 1.1% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the French Harmonized CPI for August which increased by 0.5% monthly and by 1.3% annualized.
German ZEW Survey and Eurozone ZEW Survey: The German ZEW Survey Current Situation Index for October is predicted at -26.0 and the German ZEW Survey Economic Expectations Index at -27.0. Forex traders can compare this to the German ZEW Survey Current Situation Index for September which was reported at -19.9 and to the German ZEW Survey Economic Expectations Index which was reported at -22.5. The Eurozone ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment Index for October is predicted at -33.0. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment Index for September which was reported at -22.4.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Japanese Yen trades:
Japanese Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Final Japanese Industrial Production for August decreased by 1.2% monthly and by 4.7% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to previous Japanese Industrial Production for August which decreased by 1.2% monthly and by 4.7% annualized. Capacity Utilization for August decreased by 2.9% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Capacity Utilization for July which increased by 1.1% monthly.
Japanese Tertiary Industry Index: The Japanese Tertiary Industry Index for August increased by 0.4% monthly. Economists predicted an increase of 0.6% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to the Japanese Tertiary Industry Index for July which increased by 0.1% monthly.
Should price action for the EURJPY remain inside the or breakdown below the 119.200 to 120.000 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
Timeframe: D1
Recommendation: Short Position
Entry Level: Short Position @ 119.400
Take Profit Zone: 115.850 – 116.550
Stop Loss Level: 120.700
Should price action for the EURJPY breakout above 120.000 the following trade set-up is recommended:
Timeframe: D1
Recommendation: Long Position
Entry Level: Long Position @ 120.700
Take Profit Zone: 121.300 – 122.300
Stop Loss Level: 120.000
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EURJPY Fundamental Analysis – August 26th 2019Here is the key factor to keep in mind today for Euro trades:
German IFO: The German IFO Business Climate Index for August is predicted at 95.0. Forex traders can compare this to the German IFO Business Climate Index for July which was reported at 95.7. The German IFO Current Assessment Index for August is predicted at 98.8. Forex traders can compare this to the German IFO Current Assessment Index for July which was reported at 99.4. The German IFO Expectations Index for August is predicted at 91.8. Forex traders can compare this to the German IFO Expectations Index for July which was reported at 92.2.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Japanese Yen trades:
Japanese Leading Index and Japanese Coincident Index: The Final Japanese Leading Index for June was reported at 93.3 and the Final Japanese Coincident Index was reported at 100.4. Forex traders can compare this to the previous Japanese Leading Index for June which was reported at 93.3 and to the previous Japanese Coincident Index which was reported at 100.4.
Singapore Industrial Production: Singapore Industrial Production for July increased by 3.6% monthly and decreased by 0.4% annualized. Economists predicted a decrease of 1.8% and of 4.9%. Forex traders can compare this to Singapore Industrial Production for June which decreased by 0.3% monthly and by 8.1% annualized.
Should price action for the EURJPY remain inside the or breakout above the 117.000 to 117.750 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
Timeframe: D1
Recommendation: Long Position
Entry Level: Long Position @ 117.400
Take Profit Zone: 121.350 – 122.300
Stop Loss Level: 116.550
Should price action for the EURJPY breakdown below 116.550 the following trade set-up is recommended:
Timeframe: D1
Recommendation: Short Position
Entry Level: Short Position @ 116.250
Take Profit Zone: 113.700 – 114.150
Stop Loss Level: 117.000