2024-10-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Bullish spikes on all of them but markets closed mixed. All closed with a big tail above and we are where we closed yesterday. Near but still above the daily 20ema, near bull trend lines but also with bulls not strong enough to get a big breakout above with follow through. Most of the current patterns are in their last stages and the breakout will happen over the next days. I am neutral for now and scalp in both directions.
dax futures
comment: Big spike to new ath but also big rejection. Market is contracting inside the clear bull wedge. I doubt we get the breakout tomorrow but it could happen but next week for sure. Where will this break out to? Right now I favor another leg down to 19500ish more than a breakout above. On the daily chart it’s bullish and nothing else. I still do have my 20000 target.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 19500 - 20000
bull case: Bulls touched 19800 and got rejected, no surprise there. Only question is how fast do will they retest that price. It’s possible that we need to sell some more to find new buyers but I do think bulls have a better chance of the blow off top if they stay above 19600. Since we are oscillating around 19700, I can’t be anything but neutral for now.
Invalidation is below 19500.
bear case: Bears need a daily close below 19500 to break outside the bull wedge inside the bigger bull channel on the daily chart. Volume is increasing which is better for the bears than the bulls but they can’t print one decent daily bear bar and until that changes, you simply can not be a bear here.
Invalidation is above 19820.
short term: Neutral. Bullish above 19820 and bearish below 19500.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: 3 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19500 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Not so sure about 19491 being the high, since liquidity could see a bigger increase and upside could be higher. We will likely have another 10%+ correction this year and a possible year end rally.
Update 2024-10-13: Possibility of a blow-off top to 20000 is there. If we get there, it will be the short opportunity of the decade.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: S elling 19800 or buying the opening breakout above 19640, which was good for 160 points.
