2024-10-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax - Perfect two legged (ABC) correction on the 1h tf and now bulls are free to continue the short squeeze. Buckle up. Bears are only allowed to speak below 19250. If bears manage that, next target would be 19100 and a continuation of the trading range since last Tuesday. My swing long is going.
comment : My line in the sand for the bulls was 19250 and the low was 19276. Bulls now want the third big leg up tomorrow and they have all the reason to assume it will happen. We have a perfect bull trend line, so watch what the market is doing around it and don’t short until it’s broken. I’m full bull here.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls want the third leg to 19600+. That’s it. As long as the bull trend line holds, it’s bullish. You can either long now or wait on a breakout above 19450 with follow through. Either is fine. Stop is obvious (if not, ask me).
Invalidation is below 19276.
bear case: Bears fumbled it today. Selling was decent but they could not get below the breakout price 19270 and if bulls start the better buying tomorrow, I don’t think we will see much fighting. If bears somehow manage to print below 19250, consider me surprised and that I am wrong.
Invalidation is above 19450.
short term: Max bullish. Stop is still 19250.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01 : 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade : Can do long now, 19358 or wait on breakout. Stop is the same.
trade of the day: Selling 19400 was decent I guess but on these days you find the middle of the range and scalp.
