2024-10-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Many bull trend lines are gone for good. Bears closed at the lows and they desperately need follow through tomorrow. If nq won’t keep the markets afloat tomorrow and drops below 20400, we will likely see a big sell off with 20200 or lower. Dax looks done, clear break of the trend line, swing shorts are juicy here.
dax futures
comment: Daily chart now looks really bad. Next support is around 19000-19100. If bears fail to generate follow through tomorrow, we could retest the bull trend line even up to 19600 again but as of now I heavily favor the bears to go deep red into the weekend.
current market cycle: trading range more likely than start of a bear trend but we only know once we reach 19000 and see if it’s support or not
key levels: 19000 - 19800
bull case: Bulls gave up today after the market failed to print a better close yesterday. Since they have been trying to go above 19800 for so long now, I do think many will wait for a deeper pull back to at least 19000 before buying again. They could try to retest the bull trend line up to 19600 but as of now, it’s a stretch. Got not much for the bulls here.
Invalidation is below 19000.
bear case: Bears now have the best setup in a long time. Clear trend line break and market has tested the highs more than enough. Bears next target is 19000 where we could expect bigger support. 19000 is the previous October low and an exact measured move from the current range down. I will watch futures open in an hour and will likely get on some swing shorts.
Invalidation is above 19620.
short term: Bearish for 19000 if we stay below 19620. My bullish targets are met with this lower high and trend line break. Expecting a deeper pull back before a year end rally.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. Right now there is no selling pressure. I am confident that we will hit 17000 in 2025 but timing is more important than price, so let’s not waste brain capital on being bearish for now.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Globex marked the high of the day and market just sold off. 19300 was expected to be bigger support and market showed a decent reaction where one should have covered shorts.