RSEY1! trade ideas
Yen - Long Term TrendThe Yen is sitting near an important trend line going back to late 70's.
Could be near an important turning point. A break in the current downtrend similar to 90' and 98' could be the start of an extended rally in the yen.
FXY is the corresponding ETF to watch.
Yen Major Move Up Coming! Custom COT Indicators!Overview.
-This is the Beginning of a Educational Series from Jake Bernstein to the TradingView Community.
-Many Traders use the COT Data Incorrectly.
-Jake Discovered if You Look at the Net Commercials and Take Note When Commercials net Buying is Either At All Time Highs, Or Net Buying = Longest Period of Buying Look for an Extreme Move To the Upside.
-In The Future We Will Show Precise Entry Signals…But a Basic Entry Signal Is When Commercials Go From Net Long to Net Short.
-Full Credit in Methodology goes to Jake Bernstein at www.Trade-Futures.com and www.2Chimps.net
Thought Process:
-Commercials Represent Large (Typically Billion Dollar) Companies.
-Take Note - When Commercials Are Buying at Record High
-Take Note - When Commercials Are Buying For Record Long Periods of Time
***Note…Commercials Can Buy For Extended Periods Dollar Cost Averaging…
***Basic Entry Listed In Overview.
***More Precise Entries Will Be Introduced Soon.
Take Note When Commercials STOP Buying and START Selling
Indicator Shows Net Commercials
-Full Credit goes to Greeny for Creating Original Code. I only made slight modifications.
Lower Indicator Modifications include
-Took Off Net Long and Short Individual Plots
-Added Optional Background Highlighting when Commercials Switch from Long to Short
-Added Optional Alert Capability If Commercials Go From Net Long to Short
-Ability to Show INVERSE - This makes it Easier for some Traders to See…Since the Signals look similar to MacD/RSI Type Indicators.
Upper Indicator Modifications include:
-Added Ability to Plot Text Entries when Commercials Switch From Net Long To Short
-Added Optional Background Highlighting when Commercials Switch from Long to Short
-Added Optional Alert Capability If Commercials Go From Net Long to Short
***Additional Indicators and Updates Coming Soon
***Link To Lower Indicator & Upper Indicator Below Under Related Ideas:
Japanese Yen sell set-upJapanese Yen (J6H15) is in clear bear trend. A trade below 0.8294.support would open major sell off. Target tbc. Close by 11Mar15.
Crime...what crime? The J6 has returned to the scene of the crime and has kissed it good bye. A breach of the 8388 are and we will goto a lower time frame to look for a trigger. This will support higher equity prices.
Pressure for equities?The J6 has broken out of it's pattern. This is bullish for equities and could place pressure on the indices.
See our weekly outlook: youtu.be
Yen Index 11.01% to the bottom (Nikita FX )This is a wave analysis of Yen Index. We are now at Final wave 5 which will be
more 11.01% declining to the Fib.61.8% ideal target: 0.7805.
Comparing with USD/JPY's target, these two should be correlated. Therefore USD/JPY
is also having the same 11.01% climbing space to its ideal top. Which means:
118.98 + (118.98-75.32) x 11.01%=123.79
Nikita FX (climbingfx.jugem.jp )
J6 USDJPYJ6 Japanese Yen futures... neutral currently then long/bullish at $0.856. This represents support from 2007 and corresponds to resistance in DX DXY US Dollar Index.
YEN on the moveYEN has bottomed in Oct2014 - TREND IS UP - buying at recent pullback and targeting next resistance by the 28 Oct2014. See related idea on the multi-year trend line.
YEN trendline (monthly chart)YEN under observation for a long set-up, We are testing multi-year trendline.
What does this mean for equitiesThe J6 is definitely weak and now has broken the April lows. This doesn't fair well for equities. If it stays below the most recent swing high then we could see more upside on the equities. The J6 didn't pull back far enough for us to initiate a short so we will keep looking for entries.
Looking shortWill this level hold? The J6 has been dancing around for while now and I am sure it has eaten many accounts. However, now she has come down to test April lows. From this point we will nibble (small size) on any bounces looking for a break (and hold) below the April lows.
She goes this way...for nowThe J6 has broken down...but is this yet another head fake? We are not in this trade and choose to sit on the side lines. If you look at the weekly chart we are technically not out of the woods. We will watch for any reversals back into the chop...they could present a retest of the upper channel. For now we watch.
Very Bullish case for Euro Yen short and medium termLMA 0.886 swing points used for Fib Time extension, Fib pitchfork and Fib Retracement tools. According to this chart, price has just surpassed the resistance of the 2.618 Fib Time extension ((change in trend emminent)). Downtrend Fib pitchfork uses the LMA swing points and the upward Fib pitchfork uses the last swing points of LMA 0.577.
"Hey Doc, she's still dead"!The 6J is still dead. The "experts" think they can guess the direction. Most got stopped out on the most recent break lower. Head fakes will kill your P&L. Don't let the pundits lull you in to a stupid trade. We are still on the side lines with the $J61!. There is NO edge. Be smart and keep your powder dry while waiting. There are better trades available.
YEN consolidation (revised)YEN (J6U14) has been ranging between 0.9931 and 0.9600 from Feb to Jul 2014 (a part from a false breakout in June). A close above 0.9931 would probably project the price higher to 1.02680. I'm probably entering long 0.9884 as indicated in the chart with intermediate objective 1.0050 expected around the 22nd of July 2014.
YEN consolidationYEN (J6U14) has been ranging between 0.9931 and 0.9600 from Feb to Jul 2014 (a part from a false breakout in June). A close above 0.9931 would probably project the price higher to 1.02680.
Get the crash cart. The 6J is officially dead in the water. We will avoid this until we see defined breaks. See our last posts for break areas. If you think you "must" trade it...understand it's going to be choppy ride and it will most likely eat your trade account. Be patient and find a better instrument to trade. Keep your powder dry.
What next?The 6J has broken out (minor) to the downside and we are at the go-no go area. Aggressive traders will sell this area. We are being very cautious due to the recent false breaks. We choose to sit this out until we see a better break. What does that look like? If we break 9725 on the down side we will nibble (very small) to the downside. If we break 9920 on the upside we will buy all pullbacks. It's interesting to note that while the S&P is rallying the 6J is doing nothing. If the 6J breaks to the downside we will see much higher in the indices. If we see a nice break to the upside then we could sell off for a while in the indices. With this pull back we are in the middle of the junk and it's a fight for control...try not to get caught in the fight. Right or wrong the big boys have deeper pockets.
Yen long positions look very interesting hereAfter watching the Japanese Yen trend lower for more than 77 weeks it appears we are now starting to see the smatterings of a bottom coming in on the currency. While it may be a bit early to 'pound-the-table' I do see an interesting opportunity presenting itself within the options space. According to my very strict WCTS model, I can only consider a long position (through options) if the current market price of a 6 month option is half of what I believe the intrinsic value of the option will be at my target price. (intrinsic value = strike price - target price). Today I took a look at the call options and we appear to have just that situation. Using a very conservative price target (W. Gann's 50% rule) I believe the currency can realistically trade back into the 1.1377 area. At the same time, I can buy a seven month (December, 2014) 1.10 call option for about .002 points (or about $250). Should the market go to my target, that option will have an intrinsic value of .0377 or about $471. This is an interesting trade because the low cost enables me to buy 2 contracts (total invested is about $500). I will look to sell 1/2 the position should prices double and ride the remaining 'free' position into expiry. Should the Yen appreciate into the Optimal Trade Entry (short) window the remaining option could realistically have $13,000 of intrinsic value - not a bad reward/risk ratio and something all traders should consider in earnest.
Cheers all and I hope my simple analysis is of benefit...
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Yen: Abenomics break?Market looks unhappy that Abenomics will print the same amount of money. Wants him to print more and destroy faster than normally expected every Japanese household that could not possibly afford not even heating their homes, after all this devaluation.
5p wedge so far, needs a strong push to create a swing low morning star that maybe will lead to break the wedge.
Momentum is creating an IH&S pattern and maybe even build one more right shoulder as symmetry hints.
61.8 area, while the upward trend line that provides support comes from 1985 through 2007 lows.
All the best
Cheers
P.
