EURGBP EUR/GBP โ Rising Wedge Breakdown โ ๏ธ | Bearish Reversal Setup to 0.8540 ๐ฏ๐ EUR/GBP Analysis โ Bearish Breakdown from Rising Wedge | Short Trade Setup
โฑ๏ธ Timeframe: 45-Minute
๐ฑ Pair: Euro / British Pound (EUR/GBP)
๐ Date of Analysis: April 14, 2025
๐ Market Bias: Bearish (Short Setup)
๐ง Technical Pattern Analysis: Rising Wedge (Bearish Reversal)
The market formed a Rising Wedge pattern, a well-known bearish reversal formation that typically signals weakening bullish momentum before a price drop.
The wedge began forming after a bullish rally from the support zone (0.85000โ0.85200).
Price made successive higher highs and higher lows, but the slope of the upper and lower trendlines started to converge โ a clear sign of exhaustion in buying pressure.
Price action tested the resistance zone (0.86800โ0.87000) multiple times but failed to break higher, forming a series of wicks and rejections near this level.
Eventually, the market broke down below the lower wedge trendline, confirming the bearish reversal.
This breakout is supported by strong bearish candles and a shift in structure, where lower highs and lower lows begin forming.
๐งฑ Structure Breakdown: Key Levels
๐น Support Zone โ 0.85000 to 0.85200
A strong historical level where price previously consolidated before launching upward.
This zone now becomes the final downside target for the short setup.
๐บ Resistance Zone โ 0.86800 to 0.87000
Multiple rejections from this level created a strong supply zone.
This is where the wedge topped out, confirming market hesitation.
๐ Breakout Confirmation
The wedge breakdown occurred after a rejection from resistance.
The retest of the wedge breakdown line gave an opportunity for a safe short entry confirmation.
๐ Trade Setup: Bearish Outlook
โ Entry Idea
Entry Price Range: Around 0.86200โ0.86400 after wedge breakdown and retest confirmation.
โ Stop Loss (SL)
Set at 0.87001, just above the recent swing high and above the resistance zone.
Provides safety in case of a false breakout or a sudden news spike.
๐ฏ Take Profit Targets
TP1: 0.85860
This is a local support level and a short-term structure break zone.
Ideal for partial profits or break-even adjustment.
TP2: 0.85408
Aligns with the previous major support and completes the measured move of the wedge.
Strong confluence zone โ high-probability final take-profit area.
Target Zone (Support): 0.85418
Just below TP2, covering wick-based support for added confirmation.
๐ Confluence Factors
โ Rising Wedge Breakdown
โ Bearish Price Action Post-Pattern
โ Multiple Rejections at Resistance Zone
โ Fibonacci Retracement Alignment (Not shown but implied)
โ Clear Swing Highs/Lows with Momentum Shift
๐ก Risk-Reward Overview
Risk (Stop Loss): ~60 pips
Reward: ~150 pips (to TP2)
R:R Ratio: ~1:2.5 or better โ excellent for intraday swing setups
๐ง Professional Commentary
This EUR/GBP setup is a textbook case of a rising wedge giving way to a clean breakout and trend reversal. The support and resistance levels are well defined, and the market behavior around those zones indicates strong institutional involvement. Traders can expect increased volatility around support, so a trailing stop or partial profit strategy near TP1 is advisable.
If price respects the bearish momentum and breaks below 0.85800 decisively, there's a high probability of continuation toward 0.85400โ0.85200.
๐ Summary of Trade Idea
Component Level
Pattern Rising Wedge (Bearish Reversal)
Entry Zone 0.86200โ0.86400
Stop Loss 0.87001
TP1 0.85860
TP2 0.85408
Final Target 0.85418
Risk-Reward ~1:2.5
