Bearish bias, with trendline precision by tick- Ichimoku setup is bearish: price, Tenkan and Kijun are below Kumo. Forward Kumo is bearish, Tenkan is below Kijun. However Chikou Span (lagging line) should break below past candles too for further momentum pickup.
- We have a minor bullish trendline with tick precision. Once it breaks, space opens to 300-302 target.
- Heikin-Ashi shows some indecision at the trendline support. haDelta+ and haOscillator show momentum loss and minor positive divergence.
Macro:
- January CPI this morning was more or less in line with expectations: Headline YoY was slightly higher at 2,3 %, core CPI at 1,6 % (bit lower than prev.).
- GDP at 1,6 % was lower than mkt consensus of 2,2 %
- Central Bank will stick to low rates and lose monetary policy via non-conventional tools. I don't think they have much power to weaken HUF, rather to slow down or counter HUF appreciation coming from the still extremely high C/A surplus.
I believe this trendline will break. The question is if happens soon, or only later. For now I'd reduce some short exposure, with strong focus on the trendline support below at 308, and Kijun Sen above at 309,50.
