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EURO / INDONESIAN RUPIAH

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EURIDR 25th AUGUST 2022Supply chain disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic have been exacerbated by Russia's war on Ukraine and lockdowns in China, while energy bills have soared and taxes have risen, reducing consumer spending power. The euro fell after Russia's announcement on Friday (Aug 19) last week that it would halt gas supplies for three days through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline at the end of this month. Market participants are concerned that the halt could exacerbate the energy crisis that has weighed on the currency over the past few months. The embargo is expected to see Russian coal exports flowing to China and India. Meanwhile, Europe will import coal from Australia, Colombia, the United States, Australia and Indonesia. In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to hold a meeting on Thursday (25/8). Markets are betting that the ECB will raise interest rates even as the Blue Continent faces slowing economic growth.
Short
by DNP-FX
2
EURIDR MAY REACH 16,500/16,750 (15 % + 1 %) MED TERM TARGET ZONEEURIDR MAY REACH THE LEVEL OF EURIDR 16,500/16,750 FOR 15 % + 1 % WIDTH OF MEDIUM TERM EXCHANGE RATE TARGET ZONE OF WHICH THE INDONESIAN RUPIAH IS DEPRECIATED BY EUR FOR 15 % + 1 % BY THIS 2017. BY REACHING EURIDR 16,500/16,750 THE PRICE IS ASSUMED TO BE STABLE. HOWEVER, SHOULD THE PRICE BREAK THAT LEVEL THEN BECOME UNSTABLE. UNLESS THOSE LEVEL NOT BROKEN, THE INDONESIAN CENTRAL BANK, BANK INDONESIA NOT NECESSARY TO UNDERTAKE MARKET STERILIZATION (SOFT-INTERVENTION) BY WAITING THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK AND THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB) TO TAKE MEASURE ON THE EURUSD. THE RISK HOWEVER SEEMS TO BE FACED BY THE CONSISTENT ALIGNMENT TO UPWARD ON THE MEDIUM TERM TARGET ZONE AND MAY TO PROLONG THE WEAKENING OF INDONESIAN RUPIAH AGAINST EUR IN LONG TERM. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE ONLY TO BE ASSURED BASED ON THE MEASURE UNDERTAKEN ON EURUSD AND THE IMPACT OF THE MEASURE ON THE EURIDR. WATCH OUT THE MARKET.
by Johanes