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EUR/JPY Mini

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EURJPY.100.MINI trade ideas

EURJPYEUR/JPY – Short Fundamental Analysis 1. Context • European Central Bank (ECB) • Indications suggest potential easing (or at least a pause in hikes) starting around Q2 2025, as Eurozone growth remains moderate. • Inflation in the Eurozone has started to decline, though still slightly above the ECB’s long-term target. • Bank of Japan (BoJ) • Maintains ultra-loose monetary policy with near-zero interest rates. • Any minor adjustments (e.g., yield curve control tweaks) have not yet indicated a fundamental move toward tightening. • Eurozone Economy • Modest growth, with some Member States showing signs of manufacturing slowdown. • Weaker economic indicators could motivate the ECB to be more cautious or dovish, pressuring the euro. • Japanese Economy • Moderate GDP expansion; slightly higher inflation than traditional Japanese norms but still below levels seen in other major economies. • The yen remains under pressure against higher-yielding currencies, reflecting the ongoing rate gap. 2. COT Report Insights • EUR • Recent Commitments of Traders (COT) data show a mild shift toward increasing short positions on the euro, as some funds are betting on the ECB pivoting to a less hawkish or even dovish stance if growth falters. • JPY • Speculative accounts continue to hold notable net short positions on the yen, driven by the ultra-accommodative BoJ stance and relatively low yields. This keeps the yen structurally weak on a broad basis. 3. Potential Direction • Bias • Bullish for EUR/JPY on the premise of a significant interest rate differential: even if the ECB slows or pauses rate hikes, European rates remain higher compared to Japan’s near-zero levels. • Alternate Scenario • Any unexpected hawkish signals from the BoJ—like adjusting yield curve control more aggressively or hinting at rate hikes—could spark a corrective move downward in EUR/JPY. 4. Catalysts to Watch 1. ECB & BoJ Policy Statements • Any change in tone (e.g., the ECB turning more dovish than expected or the BoJ signaling normalization). 2. Eurozone Economic Data • PMI figures, inflation numbers, and GDP releases that influence the ECB’s policy path. 3. Japanese Indicators • Inflation and GDP reports; any sign the BoJ might step away from its ultra-loose policies. Disclaimer This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not represent trading advice. Financial markets can be volatile and carry significant risk. Always consult official sources and adapt your strategy to your risk profile before making trading decisions.
by SkylimitBreakPoint
EURJPYmonday will bring bank lending ,current account and economy watchers sentiment and wednesday will bring japanese M2 Money Stock y/y 1.3% 1.3% and Prelim Machine Tool Order. Japanese machine tool orders serve as a leading indicator of industrial production because they represent capital investments made by manufacturers in anticipation of future production needs. An increase in machine tool orders typically signals an expectation of increased demand for their products in the coming months or years. Here's how machine tool orders correlate with Japan's industrial production: Economic Growth: The performance of the Japanese manufacturing industry, as reflected by machine tool orders, has a direct correlation with economic growth. Increased demand for machine tools indicates a thriving manufacturing sector, which in turn leads to greater job creation, higher wages, and increased consumer spending. Manufacturing Activity: Machine tool orders reflect the level of investment and production in the country's manufacturing sector. As one of the world’s largest manufacturing powerhouses, Japan’s economic performance relies heavily on the success and growth of this sector. Leading Indicator: Machine tool orders are considered a leading indicator because they represent capital investments made by manufacturers in anticipation of future production needs. When companies order new machine tools, it typically signals an expectation of increased demand for their products in the coming months or years. Broader Economic Trends: The performance of machine tool orders can often be an early indicator of economic trends and future growth prospects. Superior machine tools are a crucial factor in manufacturing a wide range of machinery, so machine tools are viewed as having a critical presence far greater than their share alone would indicate. A decline in machine tool orders can indicate a slowdown in economic growth, potentially resulting in negative effects on currency exchange rates Several economic data releases could influence the EUR/JPY pair. Here's a breakdown of potential catalysts: Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence: On February 10, 2025, the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data was released and the ECB President Lagarde Speaks. ECB and BOJ Monetary Policy: Monetary policy decisions from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) significantly impact the EUR/JPY1. Keep an eye on any statements or policy changes from these central banks especially as big boss lagarde will speaks on monday. Eurozone Inflation Trends: Inflation trends in the Eurozone can sway the EUR/JPY forecast. Japanese Economic Data: Releases such as the Eco Watchers Survey and Bank Lending data out of Japan can also have an impact, ppi y/y( Producer Price Index (PPI), will be on the card this week as it measures Change in the price of goods sold by corporations Global Risk Sentiment: Overall global risk sentiment influences the EUR/JPY. Potential Scenarios to Watch For: Divergent Monetary Policies: Divergent monetary policies between the ECB and BOJ could create tricky situations for EUR/JPY. Yen Strength: Keep an eye on yen strength, as it can cause major JPY pairs to fall, including EUR/JPY. Technical Levels: Watch key levels such as the 160.00 handle; holding below this level could indicate a bearish outlook, with a potential drop to 155.431 ,146.867-152,743. please watch monthly chart and wait on 4hr for POE
by Shavyfxhub
2
STOP LOSS HUNTING STRATEGY 8.8% OR 10% REWARDSHORT AT STATISTICAL STOP LOSS FROM MAJORITY Will short at where most put their stop loss. This strategy is valid for me because this forex pair is indicating a bearish sentiment and the strongest ever recorded. But there is no previous statistics on such a price action. So I will short your stop loss which is around 160-167 (Aggressive account) and 170.5 (Buy and hold account). I have no believe in a bearish continuation beyon that, it will just carry on going bullish and I'm not interested into shorting or buying this premium as it was bullish for decades and will not offer an exit strategy and/or a decent Stop Loss size Factors of confluence: - Anchored VWAP 0.618 above - Monthly SIBI Fair Value Gap acting as strong resistance - Previous POC levels Take Profit: - EMA200 Weekly chart - Previous Fair Value Gap level - Previous Month POC of June 2023 that hasn't been retested and had a strong bullish candle - Quarterly Q1 Pivot Support Levels
Short
by Autistic-Machine
1