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EURJPY trade ideas

EJ UpdateToday's Forex Factory data indicate that eurozone economic indicators continue to be mixed—with persistent growth concerns and dovish signals from the ECB—while safe‑haven flows into the yen remain robust. The latest COT report for JPY shows that large speculators are building significant net-long positions in the yen. This strong positioning suggests that many institutional traders expect the yen to appreciate further. Putting these pieces together, the outlook for EUR/JPY in the coming days appears to be bearish, as the strengthening yen is likely to put downward pressure on the pair. Since EUR is mixed awaiting technicals to align with COT JPY before executing
Short
by D_Virtual
EUR/JPY "The Yuppy" Forex Market Money Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Thieves, 🤑 💰🐱‍👤✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the EUR/JPY "The Yuppy" Forex market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (161.000) then make your move - Bullish profits await!" however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level. 📌I strongly advise you to set an alert on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low or high level Using the 4H timeframe (158.000) swing trade basis. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 165.700 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Quantitative Analysis, Intermarket Analysis, Sentimental Outlook before start the plan. EUR/JPY "The Yuppy" Forex market is currently experiencing a Bullish 🐃 trend,., driven by several key factors. 👉Fundamental Analysis Fundamental analysis examines the economic and political factors driving currency value. For EUR/JPY, we focus on Eurozone vs. Japan. 👉Eurozone (EUR) Factors: Interest Rates: Assume the European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained or raised rates by March 2025 to combat inflation or support growth. Higher rates attract capital inflows, strengthening EUR. Inflation: If Eurozone inflation remains elevated (e.g., 2-3%), the ECB might tighten policy, supporting EUR. GDP Growth: Strong growth (e.g., 2% annualized) signals economic health, boosting EUR. Political Stability: Stable EU leadership and no major crises (e.g., elections or debt issues) favor EUR. Trade Balance: A surplus in exports (e.g., German machinery) strengthens EUR. 👉Japan (JPY) Factors: Interest Rates: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) historically keeps rates low or negative. If still near 0% or slightly positive by 2025, JPY remains weak. Inflation: Japan’s chronic low inflation/deflation (e.g., 1%) limits JPY strength. GDP Growth: Slow growth (e.g., 1%) due to aging population and export reliance weakens JPY. Yen as Safe Haven: JPY gains during global risk-off events (e.g., wars, recessions). If 2025 is calm, JPY weakens. Trade Balance: Japan’s export-driven economy (e.g., cars, tech) supports JPY if global demand holds. Conclusion: At 160.000, EUR likely benefits from higher yields and growth, while JPY is pressured by low rates and risk-on sentiment. 👉Macroeconomic Factors Macro trends influence long-term currency movements: Global Growth: Strong global growth in 2025 favors risk assets, weakening JPY (a safe haven). Commodity Prices: Rising oil/energy prices hurt Japan (net importer) more than the Eurozone, weakening JPY. Central Bank Policies: ECB tightening vs. BoJ easing widens yield differentials, pushing EUR/JPY higher. Geopolitics: Assume no major conflicts by March 2025; stability favors EUR over JPY. Demographics: Japan’s aging population caps growth, while Eurozone’s diverse economies adapt better. Conclusion: Macro trends lean bullish for EUR/JPY. 👉Global Market Analysis Equity Markets: Rising global stocks (e.g., S&P 500, DAX) signal risk-on, weakening JPY. Bond Yields: Higher Eurozone yields (e.g., German 10-year at 2.5%) vs. Japan’s (e.g., 0.5%) drive EUR strength. FX Volatility: Low volatility favors carry trades (borrowing JPY to buy EUR), supporting EUR/JPY. USD Impact: If USD weakens (e.g., Fed cuts rates), EUR may outperform JPY due to Eurozone resilience. Conclusion: Risk-on global markets support a bullish EUR/JPY. 👉Commitment of Traders (COT) Data COT reports show positioning of large speculators, commercials, and asset managers: Speculators: If net long EUR/JPY increases (e.g., +50,000 contracts), it signals bullish sentiment. Commercials: Hedgers shorting EUR/JPY (e.g., -30,000 contracts) suggest exporters locking in rates, a neutral signal. Open Interest: Rising open interest with price indicates trend continuation (bullish if above 160.000). Historical Context: Extreme positioning often precedes reversals; moderate longs suggest room to run. Hypothetical Conclusion: Moderate bullish positioning supports further upside. 👉Intermarket Analysis Intermarket relationships link forex to other assets: EUR/JPY vs. Stocks: Positive correlation with risk assets (e.g., Nikkei 225, Euro Stoxx 50) favors bulls. EUR/JPY vs. Yields: Strong correlation with Eurozone bond yields; rising yields push EUR/JPY up. EUR/JPY vs. Gold: Inverse correlation; if gold falls (risk-on), EUR/JPY rises. USD/JPY Impact: If USD/JPY rises (JPY weakens broadly), EUR/JPY follows suit. Conclusion: Bullish intermarket signals align with EUR/JPY strength. 👉Quantitative Analysis Quantitative models use data-driven metrics: Interest Rate Differential: Assume ECB rate at 3% vs. BoJ at 0.5%; 2.5% differential favors EUR. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP): Long-term fair value might be 140; at 160, EUR/JPY is overvalued but momentum-driven. Volatility (ATR): Low 14-day ATR (e.g., 1.5) suggests steady uptrend, not exhaustion. Moving Averages: If 50-day MA (e.g., 158) < 200-day MA (e.g., 155) < price (160), trend is bullish. Conclusion: Quant metrics support a bullish bias. 👉Market Sentiment Analysis Sentiment reflects trader psychology: Retail Positioning: If 70% of retail traders are short EUR/JPY (per broker data), contrarian logic favors bulls. News Flow: Positive Eurozone headlines (e.g., growth data) vs. neutral Japan news boost EUR. Social Media (X): Assume X posts show optimism on EUR, pessimism on JPY carry trade unwind. Conclusion: Sentiment leans bullish. 👉Positioning Carry Trade: Low JPY rates make it a funding currency; longs in EUR/JPY profit from yield and appreciation. Hedge Funds: Assume funds are net long EUR/JPY, per COT or market rumors. Central Banks: BoJ intervention unlikely unless EUR/JPY spikes (e.g., to 170). Conclusion: Positioning favors bulls. 👉Next Trend Move Technical Levels: Resistance at 162.000, support at 158.000. Break above 162 signals strong bulls. Catalysts: ECB hawkish statement or BoJ dovishness could push EUR/JPY to 165.000. Risks: Sudden risk-off (e.g., stock crash) could drop it to 155.000. Prediction: Uptrend to 162-165, barring shocks. 👉Overall Summary Outlook Bullish Factors: ECB tightening, BoJ easing, risk-on markets, yield differentials, bullish positioning. Bearish Risks: Global risk-off, BoJ intervention, or EUR overvaluation correction. Outlook: Bullish. EUR/JPY likely rises to 162-165 by Q2 2025, assuming stability. Watch for reversals if risk sentiment shifts. Real-Time Market Feed (Simulated) Since I can’t access live data, here’s a hypothetical snapshot as of March 10, 2025, 12:00 UTC: Bid/Ask: 159.980 / 160.020 1-Hour Change: +0.150 (+0.09%) Daily High/Low: 160.300 / 159.700 Volume: Moderate, carry trade-driven. 👉Future Prediction Short-Term : Bullish to 162-166. Long-Term : Depends on global risk and policy shifts; potential correction to 150 if JPY strengthens. 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
Long
by Thief_Trader
EUR/JPY Chart Analysis - Falling Wedge Target with Bullish SetupThis EUR/JPY 1-hour chart reveals a well-defined falling wedge pattern, which is a bullish reversal formation. Additionally, we see key support and resistance levels, a double bottom, and a breakout potential that traders can use to plan an entry. Let’s dissect this chart in a professional and detailed manner to understand the trade setup and market psychology. 🔹 Market Trend & Structure Analysis The market was previously in an uptrend, making higher highs and higher lows, until it faced strong resistance at the 163.500 level. Upon reaching this zone, the price reversed downward, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows, which resulted in a falling wedge pattern. This downward movement was accompanied by a trendline break, signaling a shift in momentum. The price has since reached a strong support level and is showing signs of potential bullish reversal. 🔹 Key Technical Patterns & Indicators 1️⃣ Falling Wedge Pattern (Bullish Reversal Signal) A falling wedge is a pattern characterized by two downward-sloping trendlines that converge, indicating that selling pressure is weakening. This pattern is considered a bullish signal because: ✔️ The declining price movement shows exhaustion of sellers. ✔️ Volume typically decreases as the wedge forms, indicating a breakout is coming. ✔️ Once price breaks out of the wedge, a strong bullish move often follows. The key here is to wait for a breakout above the upper trendline, which will confirm the bullish momentum. 2️⃣ Double Bottom Formation at Support (Reversal Confirmation) The price tested the 160.500 support level twice, forming a double bottom pattern. This is another bullish sign, as it indicates: ✔️ Buyers are actively defending this level. ✔️ There’s strong demand around this price zone. ✔️ If price breaks above the wedge resistance, it could trigger a significant rally. 🔹 Key Support & Resistance Levels Identifying support and resistance is crucial for defining entry and exit points. ✅ Support Levels: 160.500 – Strong horizontal support (Price tested this twice). 158.982 – Stop-loss level (Below this, the bullish setup is invalid). ✅ Resistance Levels: 163.500 – Major resistance (Previous high and supply zone). 165.090 – Final target (Key breakout level). If the price successfully breaks out of the wedge, it has room to rise significantly, with 163.500 as the first target and 165.090 as the ultimate goal. 🔹 Trade Setup & Execution Plan 🎯 Bullish Breakout Trade Strategy Since this setup signals a potential reversal, here’s how traders can execute a high-probability trade: 🔹 Entry Points: ✅ Aggressive Entry: Enter as soon as price breaks above the wedge resistance. ✅ Conservative Entry: Wait for a breakout and a retest of the resistance-turned-support before entering. 🔹 Target Levels: 🎯 First target: 163.500 (Previous resistance level). 🎯 Final target: 165.090 (Major resistance zone). 🔹 Stop-Loss Placement: ❌ Place the stop loss below 158.982, as a break below this level would invalidate the bullish setup. 🔹 Risk-Reward Ratio & Trade Justification 📈 Why This Trade Has a High Potential Reward? Low-risk, high-reward: The stop loss is tight, while the upside potential is large. Confluence of bullish signals: Falling wedge + Double bottom + Strong support. Institutional interest likely: Buyers are stepping in at key levels. A proper risk-to-reward ratio (RRR) for this trade would be at least 1:3, meaning for every 1% risk, there’s a 3% profit potential. This makes it a great swing trading setup. 🔹 Market Psychology Behind the Setup The falling wedge represents a market correction after a strong bullish trend. The double bottom shows that sellers are exhausted and buyers are gaining control. If price breaks out, many traders will enter, triggering a strong upward rally. This bullish breakout setup aligns with the smart money concept, where institutions accumulate positions before a big move. 🔹 Final Thoughts & Trade Outlook This EUR/JPY setup presents a high-probability trade opportunity with a bullish breakout scenario. The combination of: ✅ Falling Wedge Pattern (Bullish reversal) ✅ Double Bottom at Support (Buyers stepping in) ✅ Key Resistance Targets (Clear trade exit points) …creates a great trading setup. 📌 Trading Plan Summary: ✔️ Buy on breakout above the falling wedge. ✔️ Target 163.500 & 165.090 for profits. ✔️ Stop-loss below 158.982 for risk management. 🚀 If executed correctly, this trade has the potential for strong bullish momentum. Would you like a real-time update once the price confirms the breakout? Let’s keep an eye on this trade! 📊🔥
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
EURJPY Is Bearish! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for EURJPY. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 161.513. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 160.742 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
EJ updateRecent insights from Forex Factory indicate that eurozone data has been somewhat disappointing, while safe‐haven flows and dovish policy expectations in Japan continue to support the yen. Meanwhile, the latest COT report shows that large speculators have been building net-long positions in JPY futures relative to the euro, suggesting market participants are favoring the yen in the current risk‑off environment. Combining these factors, the near‑term outlook for EUR/JPY appears to be bearish, with the pair likely to trend lower in the coming days. Key support levels should be watched closely, as a breakdown there could accelerate the decline, though any unexpected positive euro data or a shift in risk sentiment might lead to short-term volatility.
Short
by D_Virtual
EUR JPY SHORTHello everyone, I hope you have had an excellent week of trades as well as me, I share my next trade idea to start next week, is to enter short in the eur jpy pair and continue with the current trend, if the market on Sunday opens with a higher gap at the close of today, it would be a much better entry point, otherwise if it opens right where it closed, we can still enter, I also leave the take profit zones, do not be greedy, if the market is giving us some profit we can withdraw and look for the next opportunity, greetings to all my new followers, I hope to continue sharing good ideas with everyone, good weekend.
Short
by Xolo333
EUR/JPY Trading Setup – Falling Wedge Breakout Potential1. Overview of the Market Structure The EUR/JPY daily chart presents a falling wedge pattern, which is a classic bullish reversal setup. This pattern has been forming for several months, indicating that the price has been consolidating within a narrowing range. The falling wedge typically suggests that selling pressure is weakening, and a potential breakout to the upside could follow. The chart also highlights key support and resistance zones, along with a well-defined trading setup based on technical confluences. 2. Key Technical Levels Support Level: ~ 155.819 (Marked as Stop Loss) This level has acted as strong support multiple times. A break below this level would invalidate the bullish bias. Resistance Level: ~ 163-164 The price has previously struggled to break above this region. Currently, it is retesting this level after a breakout attempt. Target Levels: 175.246 – This aligns with a previous all-time high zone and a strong resistance level. 179.562 – Marked as the ultimate target, indicating a full breakout potential. 3. Falling Wedge Formation & Breakout Analysis A falling wedge is a bullish pattern that indicates a decrease in selling pressure over time. The price has tested the lower trendline multiple times, showing strong demand at support. Recently, the price broke above the upper wedge trendline, suggesting that a breakout is in progress. However, the breakout needs confirmation in the form of a successful retest at the previous resistance level (~163-164). 4. Retest Confirmation & Trade Setup Retest Scenario: If the price holds above the previous resistance and confirms it as support, the probability of continuation towards 175-179 increases. Entry Strategy: A buy entry can be considered after a successful retest with bullish price action confirmation. Stop-Loss Placement: Below 155.819 (previous strong support). Risk-Reward Ratio: The target offers a strong risk-reward ratio if the breakout holds. 5. Market Sentiment & Volume Analysis The previous downward move showed declining bearish momentum, further confirming the validity of the falling wedge. A volume increase on the breakout would provide additional confirmation. If the price consolidates near the breakout zone with low volatility, a strong move upward could follow. Final Conclusion: Bullish Breakout in Progress The falling wedge breakout suggests that EUR/JPY is poised for further upside. A successful retest at 163-164 could push the price towards 175.246 and ultimately 179.562. Risk management is crucial, and a stop-loss below 155.819 is recommended to avoid invalidation of the setup. This setup presents a high-probability trading opportunity, but confirmation through price action and volume analysis remains key. Key Trading Plan Summary: 📌 Pattern: Falling Wedge (Bullish) 📌 Breakout Confirmation: Yes, but retesting is ongoing 📌 Entry Point: Above 163-164 after successful retest 📌 Stop Loss: Below 155.819 📌 Target Levels: 175.246, then 179.562 📌 Risk-Reward: Favorable if breakout sustains Would you like any refinements or a more concise version for your TradingView post? 🚀📈
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
EURJPY → False breakout of key resistance ...FX:EURJPY is forming a false breakdown of resistance and draws us a reversal pattern against the upper boundary of the descending price channel, as well as the pressure on the market creates the correction of the dollar... On the daily chart the structure is bearish. After the false breakout of the global resistance a correction is formed, within which the price can test the imbalance zone or the previously broken resistance and continue its fall after the liquidity capture. The global trend is neutral and in this case it is worth considering local support levels as targets Resistance levels: channel boundary, 162.3, 163.0 Support levels: 160.84, 158.9 A retest of the channel resistance or the area of 162.4 - 163 is possible. But any return of the price under the resistance of the descending channel and consolidation of the price in the selling zone may provoke further decline Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
1
Trading Idea: EUR/JPY Buy Setup Based on Retail Flow SentimentA strong buy signal has emerged on EUR/JPY, driven by retail trading flow analysis. Let's break down the setup and why this trade aligns with smart money strategies. Signal Breakdown Retail Sentiment Shift 📊 After breaking above the descending triangle, we observed a surge in retail sell positions, indicating a strong bearish bias among traders. Despite a minor pullback, the majority of retail traders remain short, reinforcing the likelihood of a stop-out rally. Price Action & Smart Money Reaction 🏦 The breakout invalidated the bearish triangle pattern, yet retail traders continued shorting. Our trading flow model shows short positioning far exceeding rolling averages, a classic trap scenario where market makers may push prices higher to liquidate retail shorts. Trade Setup Buy Entry: 📈 161.50 Stop Loss: ❌ 159.70 Target: 🎯 175.56 Rationale: Retail traders are heavily short, margin utilization is rising, and smart money may continue squeezing higher. Bonus: 💰 This setup also benefits from a positive carry swap, making it even more attractive for medium-term holding. Final Thought Our EUR/JPY trade strategy is built on 80% trading flow sentiment and 20% technical & fundamental analysis. Retail traders often get trapped at key reversal points, and we capitalize on these inefficiencies. 📊 Will the smart money push EUR/JPY higher? Drop your thoughts below! 👇
Long
by bambarcapital
2
EURJPY: Potential downward move towards 161.00?OANDA:EURJPY is currently approaching a significant resistance zone, an area that has been a key point of interest where sellers have regained control, leading to notable reversals in the past. Given this, there is potential for a bearish reaction if price action confirms rejection, such as a bearish engulfing candle, long upper wicks or increased selling volume. If the resistance level holds, I anticipate a downward move toward 161.00, a target that seems at least achievable. This would more likely be a call on a bearish outlook, as sellers may step in to push the price lower from this key level. However, if the price breaks this zone and sustains the up move, the bearish outlook may be invalidated, and we could potentially see a larger upside move. Given the potential volatility around this zone, it’s crucial to monitor candlestick patterns and volume closely to identify strong selling opportunities. Proper risk management is essential to handle any potential volatility and protect your capital if the price breaks out.
Short
by TrendDiva
21