EURJPY trade ideas
EUR/JPY Technical Breakdown: Rising Wedge Breakdown + Target๐บ 1. Rising Wedge Pattern Explained
A Rising Wedge is formed when:
Price action creates higher highs and higher lows, but
The slope of the support line is steeper than the resistance line.
This signals that buyers are losing strength, and momentum is fading.
In this chart:
The wedge began forming around mid-February 2025.
Price was compressing within converging trendlines.
After multiple failed breakouts near resistance (~165.50), the pair finally broke below the lower trendline, confirming a bearish breakout.
This pattern is considered reliable because it traps late buyers and shifts sentiment from bullish to bearish quickly once the lower boundary is breached.
๐ป 2. Key Technical Zones
๐ Major Resistance Zone (~165.00 โ 166.00)
Strong supply area; price has rejected here multiple times since late 2023.
Resistance was confirmed again during the wedge formation.
High volume spike noted near this level, followed by a steep dropโevidence of distribution and smart money exiting long positions.
๐ Major Support Zone (~156.00 โ 157.00)
Historically held as a demand zone.
Previous bounces suggest it is structurally significant.
However, repeated tests can weaken the zone, increasing the likelihood of a breakdown.
๐ฏ Target Price: 153.433
Measured by taking the height of the wedge and projecting it from the breakout point.
Coincides with a previously tested level (support turned target).
Bears could aim for this level as a swing target.
๐ 3. Market Psychology Behind the Pattern
As price climbs inside a rising wedge, volume often declines, showing buyer exhaustion.
False breakouts near the top of the wedge trap breakout traders, adding fuel to the downside move once price breaks the lower boundary.
The sharp selloff post-breakout is often driven by stop-loss cascades and aggressive short positioning.
๐ 4. Potential Price Path & Trade Plan
Retest in Progress: Price may retest the broken wedge support (now resistance) near 163.00โ164.00 before further decline. This retest zone offers a high-probability short entry opportunity with tight risk management.
Immediate Downside Levels: 160.00 (psychological level), 157.00 (support zone), and final target at 153.43.
Bearish Continuation Scenario: If the pair maintains below the wedge and forms lower highs, it confirms ongoing bearish sentiment.
๐ 5. Risk Factors to Monitor
ECB or BOJ monetary policy shifts (rate cuts/hikes, yield curve control updates).
Risk-on vs risk-off flows, especially in times of geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks.
Intervention by the Bank of Japan to protect JPY from excessive weakening.
โ
Conclusion: A Tactical Short Opportunity
The EUR/JPY chart is setting up for a potential medium-term short swing trade following a confirmed rising wedge breakdown. With clear rejection from a long-standing resistance zone and fading bullish momentum, the technicals align for a move toward 153.43 over the coming weeks.
Traders should watch for clean retests and structure-based entries, managing risk around 164.50 with profit-taking at key support zones along the path.
EURJPY Hit the CeilingPrice just kissed the 164.63 resistance Iโve been tracking and printed a rejection wick. Unless we close decisively above that shelf, Iโm treating it as a fresh supply zone. My base case is a drift back toward the mid-range support at 164
Structure: clear descending channel; latest rally only tagged the upper rail
EURJPY higher bearish expectations from here
OANDA:EURJPY analysis before this one, is be closed, i am note will share new analysis on EJ soon.
ASCENDING CHANNEL visible, price in zone currently, after ISM events today, we are not see break of res zone 164.250, which for me having positive imact on bearish expectations here.
Trend line is breaekd and soon exxpecting to see and break of ASCEDING CHANNEL and higher bearish fall continuation.
SUP zone: 164.250
RES zone: 161.750, 160.900
EURJPY SELL Signal. Don't forget about stop-loss.
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P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
EURJPYEurjpy, a good pair to swing, looking forward to go bullish once price hits the 162.000 mark, Currently it is 12:10 pm Monday into to the New York Session, anticipating a minor liquidity sweep on either New York Killzone or the Asian open ..Let's wait and see how the market unfolds ...Adios!...
EurJpy Trade IdeaYesterday I published a long set up on EJ and stated why I was going long on the pair. After markets opened back up I had the retest and candle closure I wanted to see. Price ended up playing out as expected where 1:3rr targets were then smacked! I'll personally be looking to get into some more longs on the pair once price can give a pullback and show some type of bullish candle closure. We'll see what happens with EUR having a bank holiday today.
EURJPY: This week and next month analysis.Jen has Strengthen itself, may be under pressure of Trump administration, this may have ended or not. but technically we are ready see more bearish days for pairs against JPY:
The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones.
Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray.
You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confirmation and ETC.
SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings.
TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels.
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Role of different zones:
GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them.
RED: Just Short trades allowed on them.
BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them.
WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
EurJpy Trade IdeaWith EJ ranging between two major levels and respecting the support level below once again, I'll personally be looking to get into some longs on the pair for this week. We had a clean flip ofs structure once price tapped into the support below. Price did break below the support level but failed to continue heading bearish. Once price can break and retest from the smaller time frame range I'll execute longs with a 1:3rr target. We'll see what happens.