Euro-yen unlikely to move much lower immediately¥155 remains the key support for EURJPY on the daily chart; however, the latest downward movement has paused before reaching that area. Participants have mostly discounted recent political instability in France since the government’s collapse had been widely expected. Meanwhile in monetary policy the European Central Bank is likely to cut the deposit facility rate to 3% on Thursday 12 December.
Euro-yen’s bounce in recent days seems to have a bit more energy than GBPJPY, but this is partially a function of the latest round of losses here having reached lower. The structure of most indicators between the two pairs is quite similar; the main difference driving slightly greater recent losses by EURJPY is fundamentals for the euro and pound.
While the death crosses of the 20 SMA below the 50 and 100 can’t be discounted, another push lower in the next few days is questionable because this is the third unsuccessful test of the area around ¥155 in only a few months. Usually, second and subsequent tests of a possibly important area are less likely to break through unless fundamentals align. Volume doesn’t support any clear direction here so traders might be biding their time until the ECB’s meeting.
