EURJPY H1 Analysis – Wave 4 Retracement in Play🕐 Timeframe: 1H
📅 Updated: 17 May 2025
📌 Pair: EURJPY
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🔍 Technical Outlook:
• Price is in a clear bearish trend, respecting lower highs and lower lows.
• Awesome Oscillator (AO) shows bearish convergence — momentum is weakening but still bearish overall.
• Price retraced to the 2.618–2.786 extension zone (162.902–162.982), a common wave 4 reaction level.
• This zone may act as a rejection area, setting up for the start of wave 5.
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🔧 Elliott Wave Structure:
• ✅ Wave 1–3: Completed with strong bearish momentum.
• 🟡 Wave 4: Likely completed at 162.982 or may slightly extend, but momentum is fading.
• 🔴 Wave 5: Expected next move — continuation to the downside.
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📍 Key Levels:
• 🔺 Wave 4 Resistance Zone: 162.902–162.982
• 🔻 Potential Wave 5 Target:
• 🎯 TP1: 162.000
• 🎯 TP2: 161.835 (Fib 4.236 extension)
• 🎯 TP3 (Extension): 161.50 or lower if selling accelerates
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🧠 Strategy:
1. Monitor price action at 162.982 — if rejected, likely wave 4 completed.
2. Look for bearish engulfing / momentum candles for entry signal.
3. Short Setup Idea:
• Entry: Below 162.88–162.90 after confirmation
• SL: Above wave 4 high (163.12 or tighter at 163.00)
• TP: 100+ pip potential — trailing to lock profit
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✅ Summary:
• AO confirms bearish convergence → weak momentum
• Price hit Fib confluence zone → wave 4 likely done
• Wave 5 could give 100+ pips to the downside
• Wait for confirmation, then short the breakdown
