EURJPY Technical Analysis! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for EURJPY below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 162.05
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 162.84
Safe Stop Loss - 161.61
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURJPY trade ideas
EURJPYEUR/JPY Interest Rate Differential, Upcoming Economic Data, and Directional Bias (May 2025)
Interest Rate Differential Overview
Eurozone (ECB):
The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in June 2025, with inflation forecasts lowered (e.g., core CPI forecast for 2026 revised down to 1.7%). This signals a dovish bias and easing monetary policy ahead.
Japan (BoJ):
The Bank of Japan maintains a very low policy rate at 0.5%, with cautious communication about gradual rate hikes. The 10-year JGB yield recently declined to 1.32%, reflecting market skepticism about sustained tightening amid global uncertainties. The BoJ plans up to two more hikes by Q1 2026 but remains sensitive to financial market volatility and yen strength.
Resulting Differential:
The Eurozone currently offers a higher interest rate environment than Japan, but with expected ECB cuts and cautious BoJ tightening, the differential remains wide but may narrow over time. This wide differential has historically supported EUR/JPY strength.
Upcoming Key Economic Data and Events
Date Event Potential Impact on EUR/JPY
May 7, 2025 ECB Meeting (no rate change expected) Market eyes June cut; dovish tone could weaken EUR temporarily.
May 7, 2025 BoJ Policy Statement & Press Conference Watch for guidance on future hikes; dovish signals could weaken JPY further.
May 15, 2025 Eurozone CPI Data (April) Soft inflation supports ECB easing, bearish EUR bias.
May 15, 2025 Japan CPI Data (April) Inflation trends influence BoJ tightening path; lower inflation weakens JPY.
May 30, 2025 Eurozone Economic Sentiment Weak sentiment may pressure EUR.
June 6, 2025 ECB Rate Decision Expected 25bps cut could weaken EUR and EUR/JPY.
Directional Bias and Price Outlook
Current Price: Around ยฅ162.5 (early May 2025).
Short to Medium Term:
EUR/JPY is trending higher due to the wide interest rate differential favoring the euro and ongoing BoJ caution.
Market expects ECB easing and BoJ gradual tightening, which may keep EUR/JPY supported but with volatility around ECB meetings and inflation prints.
Lack of recent Japanese intervention to strengthen the yen has allowed EUR/JPY to drift higher.
Summary Table
Factor Impact on EUR/JPY
Wide Eurozone-Japan rate differential Supports EUR/JPY upside
ECB easing expectations Could pressure EUR short term
BoJ cautious tightening Weakens JPY, supports EUR/JPY
Soft Eurozone inflation data Bearish for EUR, limits gains
Lack of JPY intervention Allows EUR/JPY to trend higher
US-China trade tensions easing Risk-on sentiment supports EUR
Conclusion
EUR/JPYโs near-term strength is primarily driven by a wide interest rate differential favoring the euro, combined with a cautious Bank of Japan and expectations of ECB rate cuts. Upcoming inflation data and central bank meetings are key catalysts that could cause volatility. Traders should watch ECB June decisions and BoJ communications closely, as these will influence the pace of monetary policy divergence and EUR/JPY direction.
EURJPY โ False breakout of strong resistance at 164.FX:EURJPY rallies on news and reaches an important milestone. The liquidity pool formed above 164.00 may prevent the price from rising. There is a high chance of a false breakout.
Against the backdrop of the dollar's growth caused by PMI news, the currency pair is forming a retest of the key resistance level of 164.188 as part of a consolidation distribution and, with no possibility of continuing its growth, is making a false breakout.
Consolidation in the sell zone (below 164.188) will trigger a reversal and a fall.
Overall, the situation is neutral, with the market in a sideways range, and a false breakout could lead to a correction or reversal of the local trend.
Resistance levels: 164.188
Support levels: 163.17, 162.57
The formation of a reversal pattern relative to resistance and price consolidation below the level could give a good signal for a reversal.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Could the price bounce from here?EUR/JPY is reacting offf the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 162.59
1st Support: 161.78
1st Resistance: 163.62
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EURJPYMacro Economic Analysis / Fundamental Analysis
The ECB has kept the rates while also BOJ kept the rates at the moment. In the short term we expect the ECB to cut the rates whilst the BOJ to raise the rate, probably in the next meeting. So in overall, we expect the JPY to strengthen against the EURO.
Technical Analysis
We expect a liquidity sweep of the previous week candle, then a sharp fall of the EURJPY.
EURJPY Trade IdeaEUR/JPY showed a minor sell-off as yen gains due to tariff uncertainty. It hits an high of 164.60 and is currently trading around 163.41. Intraday outlook is bullish as long as the support 163 holds.
Technical Analysis:
The EUR/JPY pair is trading above 34, below 55 EMA and above 200-4H EMA on the 4- hour chart.
Near-Term Resistance: Around 164 a breakout here could lead to targets at 164.60/ 165/166.65/167.
Immediate Support: At 163.40 if breached, the pair could fall to 163/162/ 161.49/160.50/160/ 159.25/158.85/158.25.
Indicator Analysis 4-hour chart):
CCI (50): Bullish
Average Directional Movement Index: Neutral
Overall, the indicators suggest a mixed trend
Trading Recommendation:
It is good to buy on dips around 163 with a stop loss at 162 for a TP of 165/166.65.
EUR/JPY Weekly Analysis๐ EUR/JPY Weekly Analysis
๐ Technical Insight by Shaker Trading
๐ป Bearish Market Structure:
Strong Descending Channel (Daily):
The pair is currently moving within a clear downward channel on the daily timeframe, reflecting continued bearish pressure.
Key Demand Zones (Daily):
Several strong demand areas are visible on the daily chart, which could serve as potential bounce points.
Overbought Signals on RSI & MACD:
Both the RSI and MACD indicators are showing signs of overbought conditions, suggesting the bullish momentum may be weakening.
๐ Trading Outlook:
We expect the bearish movement to continue. However, short-term pullbacks may occur from the demand zones before resuming the downtrend. Trade with caution and wait for confirmation signals.
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EURJPY Technical & Order Flow Analysis (Potential Breakout)Our analysis is based on multi-timeframe top-down analysis & fundamental analysis.
Based on our view, the price will rise to the monthly level.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis can change anytime without notice and is only for assisting traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no reason to act on it, and neither should you.
Please support our analysis with a boost or comment!
"EURJPY Rejecting Premium FVG | Smart Money Trap in Play!"EURJPY Analysis ๐ง | 15M Timeframe
Price has tapped into the Premium Area, reacting off a high-probability Fair Value Gap (FVG) and Order Block confluence.
Signs of rejection are starting to show, but momentum wasn't strong enough to push lower before hitting breakeven.
Key Observations:
Price aggressively tapped the Premium zone (around 79% retracement).
Reaction from the embedded Fair Value Gap inside the premium zone.
Possible minor liquidity sweep above recent highs (Strong High marked).
Discounted zone below remains wide open as a potential future target.
๐ง Smart Money Concept Insight:
Big players often drive price into a Premium Area, triggering breakout trades and trapping liquidity.
After the liquidity is harvested, price tends to rebalance into the Discount Area.
Today, price showed initial bearish reaction but lacked immediate continuation strength โ resulting in breakeven protection hit.
Current Trading Plan:
Continue monitoring EURJPY for renewed bearish order flow signs.
TP1 (if re-entry occurs): Mid Discount Area
TP2: Weak Low liquidity sweep below
SL (for any re-entries): Above Strong High
Remember:
๐ Premium = Look for Sell Opportunities
๐ Discount = Look for Buy Opportunities
Stay patient, protect your capital, and wait for price to confirm the next move.
๐ Focus on Smart Money footprints, not emotions.