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EURJPY trade ideas

EURJPYEUR/JPY Rate Differential and Fundamental Outlook for May 2025 Interest Rate Differential ECB Main Refinancing Rate: 2.40% (after a 25 bps cut in April 2025). BoJ Policy Rate: 0.50% (held steady in May 2025). Rate Differential: 1.90 percentage points (EUR yield advantage). This gap supports EUR/JPY upside, but the ECB’s easing bias and BoJ’s cautious stance suggest potential narrowing later in 2025. Key May 2025 Fundamental Drivers Eurozone (EUR) GDP Growth: Eurozone GDP grew 0.4% QoQ in Q1 2025, with Germany expanding 0.2%. Resilient growth reduces urgency for aggressive ECB easing but does not halt the dovish trajectory. ECB Policy Outlook: Markets price in a 25 bps ECB rate cut in June, with further easing expected in 2025. ECB remains data-dependent amid trade tensions and moderating inflation (2.1% in Germany, 0.8% in France). Japan (JPY) BoJ Policy Stagnation: BoJ kept rates at 0.50% in May, citing risks from U.S. tariffs and downgrading 2025 GDP growth to 0.5%. Core CPI forecasts trimmed to 2.2% for 2025 and 1.7% for 2026, delaying hawkish shifts. Trade War Risks: U.S.-China trade de-escalation optimism reduces JPY’s safe-haven appeal, but Japan’s export reliance keeps growth vulnerable. Global Factors Risk Sentiment: Easing U.S.-China tensions favor risk-on flows, weakening JPY. Fed Policy: Delayed Fed cuts (4.50% rate) bolster USD, indirectly pressuring EUR/JPY via EUR/USD dynamics ECB Rate Cuts (Expected) Bearish for EUR (narrows rate gap) BoJ Dovish Hold Limits JPY strength, supports EUR/JPY upside Eurozone Growth Resilience Mild EUR support, delays aggressive ECB easing Trade Optimism Risk-on sentiment weakens JPY, bullish for EUR/JPY Japan’s Growth Downgrade JPY weakness on economic concerns Base Case: EUR/JPY likely trades with a moderate bullish bias in May, supported by The still-significant rate differential (1.90%). Risk-on flows amid trade de-escalation. BoJ’s growth and inflation downgrades limiting JPY strength. Downside Risks: Surprise ECB dovish rhetoric or faster-than-expected rate cuts. Escalation in U.S.-Japan/EU trade tensions reviving JPY safe-haven demand. Summary The 1.90% rate differential and improving risk sentiment favor EUR/JPY gains in May, but the ECB’s easing trajectory and Japan’s structural challenges create volatility. Traders should monitor: ECB June Policy Signals (potential 25 bps cut). Eurozone Inflation Data (May 30–31). BoJ Rhetoric on tariffs and growth. While near-term upside persists, the pair’s longer-term outlook remains bearish as ECB cuts erode the rate advantage.
Short
by Shavyfxhub
EURJPY Will Go Up From Support! Long! Take a look at our analysis for EURJPY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 163.939. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 168.000 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
EURJPY Short Term Buy Idea Update!!!Hi Traders, on March 27th I shared this idea "EURJPY - Expecting The Price To Bounce Higher Further" Expected bullish continuation higher until the two Fibonacci support zones hold. You can read the full post using the link above. Price moved as per the plan here!!! Price respected the second Fibonacci support zone and bounced higher. If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by VladimirRibakov
EUR/JPY for JPY Strength into BoJEUR/JPY has held resistance at a familiar spot on the chart, from the 163.00 level up to 163.38. This has been the same resistance that's held in the pair for the past seven weeks and for those looking for JPY-strength around tonight's BoJ rate decision, this can be an attractive venue. USD/JPY would have the complication of the 140.00 level which has been major support but for EUR/JPY, the broader context here remains digestion, with a descending triangle formation holding on the weekly chart. Key support for the formation is at 155.00 and logically the 160.00 level looms large for downside setups as that price held a pensive series of tests earlier in April. - js
by FOREXcom
EURJPY – Technical Outlook & Strategic Perspective (Apr 29 – May 📊 EURJPY Over the recent sessions, I’ve identified an interesting structure forming on the **EUR/JPY** pair, pointing to a potential **short-term bullish move** over the next **2 to 3 days** before a possible trend reversal starts to materialize. My bias is based primarily on the **presence of Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)** that have yet to be filled. These imbalances suggest the market may seek to revisit these zones to balance liquidity. Additionally, there are clear signs of buyer defense in a sensitive price region, reinforcing the thesis of a **technical recovery** before any long-term directional decision. 🧠 : - Support zone respected after selling pressure eased. - FVGs identified in alignment with a potential pullback structure. - Expectation of a bullish move toward upper liquidity zones, with partial TPs set near **162.546** and extended targets around **163.770/163.776**. 🎯 **Plan:** - Entry already triggered upon confirmation. - Stop-loss safely placed below recent swing low (161.770). - Take Profits aligned with FVGs and a risk-to-reward ratio of over 1:2. 🔎 *Strategic Note:* Once these value zones are filled, I’ll be closely monitoring for **Change of Character (CHOCH)** signals that could confirm the start of a new cycle on the pair. For now, my focus is on **gap-filling and market equilibrium** before any long-term directional play. 📍Posted by: Emerson Massawe Trader | Strategist | COO of Rodaviva | CEO of Xerof Capital
Long
by Lordemerson
2
Bearish Outlook on EurjpyA bearish outlook on EUR/JPY (Euro/Japanese Yen) typically stems from either Euro weakness, Yen strength, or a combination of both. Here are several current or general themes that could support a bearish bias: 1. Risk-Off Sentiment (Yen Strength) The Japanese Yen is a safe-haven currency, which tends to strengthen during global risk aversion (e.g., geopolitical tensions, stock market declines, or economic uncertainty). If equities fall or global sentiment sours, JPY demand can rise, pushing EUR/JPY lower. 2. ECB Dovishness (Euro Weakness) If the European Central Bank (ECB) signals or enacts rate cuts, this weakens the Euro. For instance, recent soft Eurozone inflation or poor economic data may prompt ECB easing, lowering EUR/JPY. 3. BOJ Policy Normalization (JPY Strength) If the Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues shifting away from ultra-loose monetary policy (e.g., exiting negative rates, allowing JGB yields to rise), this could strengthen the Yen. Any hawkish surprise from the BOJ is typically JPY-positive. 4. Technical Setup On the charts, if EUR/JPY is failing at resistance (e.g., near a long-term high or a fib retracement), or showing bearish divergence on RSI/MACD, it could signal a top. A break below key support zones (e.g., 160.00 or 158.00) might accelerate downside momentum. 5. Positioning and Sentiment If traders are heavily long EUR/JPY (crowded trade), a reversal or sharp correction is more likely if sentiment shifts.
Short
by Billionaire36
EUR/JPY BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT Hello, Friends! We are going short on the EUR/JPY with the target of 159.106 level, because the pair is overbought and will soon hit the resistance line above. We deduced the overbought condition from the price being near to the upper BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is green and gives us a counter-signal. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Short
by EliteTradingSignals
1