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Euro / Norwegian Krone

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EURNOK trade ideas

#EURNOK: High Probability Move To The Downside Likely! #ForexTraders, Bearish momentum visible here after we hit some decent technical levels. Really good opportunity to jump in shorts into continuation with a high probability bear move. This could also be part of a longer term down move correction. We could see moves towards the mean price from here, but we will see over time. ---Interested in joining my professional signals group? Message me here on Trading view or email me with the email address on my Trading view profile page--- Best of luck, Tom
Short
by TomProTrader
EUR/NOK holds tight supports, macros and hedging perspectivesOff-late crude has slight strength in price rises but in a broader perspectives, NOK continues to trade poorly driven by crude prices as the skepticism lingers around the commodity , EUR/NOK from yesterday seems like taking U turn to retest the year's high above 9.7400. Oil prices dictate the short-term moves in NOK, but the longer-term NOK outlook will depend on the lasting effects of lower oil prices to domestic drivers. NOK is down nearly 30% in import-weighted terms since early 2013. Ongoing NOK depreciation continues to underpin inflation (possibly it is the only factor underpinning inflation) though slower growth and lower domestic demand may drag prices lower once the FX effect starts to wane. Nevertheless, the size of the hit to NOK looks exaggerated given Norway's strong fiscal position and capacity to support domestic growth. Technically, EUR/NOK from yesterday seems like taking U turn to retest the year's high above 9.7400, RSI signals buy as we see the bullish convergence, while stochastic favours bulls as it displays the %K crossover at oversold region, intraday sentiments have been bullish bias as it is holding stronger support at 9.4464 levels. So to hedge NOK's uncertain trend, here goes the strategy: 2M (0.5%) in the money 0.66 delta calls and 1M (1%) out of the money calls with positive theta and prefer delta close zero. This debit spread is preferred on a slight sceptic bullish attitude, the ideal situation for such diagonal bull call spread buyer is when EURSEK price to remain unchanged or slowly creep up but certainly not beyond 1% within next 1 month and there onwards spikes up & beyond the strike price of the call sold. In this scenario, as soon as the short call expires worthless, the options trader can write another slightly OTM call and repeat this process every month until expiration of the longer term call to reduce the cost of the trade. It may even be possible at some point in time to own the long term call "for free".
Long
by FxWirePro
A better "Oil trade" than Oil itselfNorway depends a lot on Oil price and even more on the Oil industry! However it is still one of the real 'AAA' rated countries, with virtually no debt, and 0,75 % base rate. NOK has suffered a lot during last 2 years, being the worst performing G10 ccy. Weakness had its consequences: they have higher and increasing CPI, which makes Norges Bank less likely to cut rates further. So if someone would like to bet on Oil mkt recovery, buying NOK (selling EURNOK or maybe USDNOK) can be a lot better choice than buying Oil futures contracts or Oil ETFs. Why? Simply because it EURNOK or USDNOK shorts you still have a minor POSITIVE carry if you hold, while rolling Oil longs can be very painful every month! Recent front end contract contango on Oil curve is ard 2 USD+ between every month, which is a massive negative carry risk. Also you can be sure that Draghi will try to do "Whatever it takes", or at least communicate that way. Do you think the FED will not re-join this game? I think they will. One can ask OK, but what happens if the otherwise really prudent and reliable Norgesbank alos joins ccy war? Well, never say never, any central banker can go crazy, but look at what has happened to Sweden? Riksbank cut to negative, doing QE and SEK is still performing quite well. Efficiency of Central Bankers idiotism is reaching its absolute limits, you always have to look at things on relative value basis. Weekly: - Ichimoku is bullish, but price reached trend channel top few weeks ago. - Heikin-Ashi is turning counter bearish. (candle, haDelta/SMA3, Oscillator). Below 9,42 it would break the wedge and Kijun Sen. Did it make a double top? If that gets confirmation Price tgt will be 9,10-9,15 area - EWO negative divergence. Daily: - Ichimoku turned neutral: Price in Kumo cloud and below Kijun Sen. Watch if Senkou lines make a bearish cross 26 days ahead! - Heikin-Ashi is bearish. haDelta/SMA3 cross down below zero. - EWO is down to zero -> watch if turns bearish. KEY LEVEL 9,40+! p.s.: I hold decent short position.
Short
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - 2H - SharkFirst potential setup for the week ahead. I think its likly that will come up further. The real question is whether or not we will make it all the way up. Sometimes sharks still tend to reverse at the 786 cypher reversal zone - but the risk reward wouldnt be that great if youd enter at the 786 straight away with all that upside reversal potential a shark has. but ofc i will watch for doubletops on lower timeframes even in the 78.6 area as well as the 88.6 area to maybe catch the reversal if its happing before my prevered PRZ-zone
Short
by SergeantPringles
Bullish picture, but limited upside from here.First of all I marked this post as "SHORT", but I don't mean this market is strategic bearish. I'd rather like to point to a possible top and a pull back. Weekly: - Bullish Ichimoku, but price far above equilibrium (Kijun and Senkou B lines), and also reached possible channel top - Heikin-Ashi is bullish, need to check candle body size at the end of the week. - EWO bullish, but probably building some negative divergence --> in case it won't make a higher print from here. Daily: - Bullish Ichimoku with Price far above Kijun Sen. Kijun started to catch up. Supports are at 9,60 / 9,47 / 9,40. - Heikin-Ashi may signal momentum loss today --> watch haDelta/SMA3 which already signals some weakness compared to price. - Price trades within two possible bearish wedges. The shorter one has become very tight. The longer "wedge" lines converge very slowly, with a possible resistance ard 9,80, which means unless Oil immediately collapses to 20 USD, Bulls have very limited upside here in EURNOK longs. Especially that NOK has been the worst performer G10 for the last 1,5-2 years. Should we see some rebound in Oil, risk correction in general, and as technical condition Price break below 9,60, then EURNOK has chance to show correction down to 9,40-9,47 area.
Short
by Kumowizard
1
Sell at range top.Weekly: - Trend and Ichimoku setup is still bullish - Heiki-Ashi (candle and haDelta) shows slowdown in bullish momentum. - Possible bearish divergence in EWO Daily: - Ichimoku setup is bullish biased, but should be considered as neutral until Price doesn't make a clear higher high or lower low around the Kumo. Therefor I think this pair is and stuck and will likely stay in 9,15-9,60 wider range. - Heikin Ashi shows consolidation at range top, a pull back is possible. haDelta has serious negative divergence, crosses down but stuck around zero line. Oscillator is bearish. - I still think we'll see a retracement to 9,35 equilibrium, especially if Oil recovers a bit more.
Short
by Kumowizard
Brent, CPI, Norges, 9,60 refused -> GOTO 9,35- Brent Oil is still under heavy selling pressure. This and previous general Euro buying caused a sharp spike from 9,20 to 9,60 in EURNOK. - However NOK Bears could not push the price above 9,58-9,60 key resistance since 8/Dec. Seven failed attempts. - Norwegian CPI last week was higher than expected despite falling oil prices. - Market believed in a Norges Bank rate cut with 50-50 chance, but Norges kept its benchmar on hold at 0,75 %. For me it was not surprising at all, given the fact ECB was less dovish and the above mentioned CPI number. Tech: - Ichimoku bullish biased, but bullish Kumo breakout missed textbook confirmation, as price did not make a higher high above 9,60 prev resistance. - The pair faced heavy selling after Norges decision today. Price is down -1,4 % as bulls unwinding positions. Price reaching Tenkan Sen. We had 5 candles showing undecision and choppy trading in a wide range of 9,43-9,59. Today Heikin-Ashi candle has huge upper and lower wicks again, but this time a red body! haDelta/SMA3 however may dip below zero line. -> Turning bearish! - Pull back on its way, with possible initial tgt to 9,30-9,35. If you want to enter swing short, do not rush, as this G10 pair has been trading like a wild EM cross! Try to catch spikes to 9,48-9,52.
Short
by Kumowizard
#EURNOK Bearish Kumo breakout confirmed by Chikou SpanBearish momentum may accelerate finally. Of course a lot depends on OPEC meeting. Obviously a cut in Oil production would cause spike in Brent price and would make NOK even more attractive. Daily update: - Price below Kumo Tenkan and Kijun (bearish) - Tenkan/Kijun is strong bearsih - Chikou Span bearish cross below past Kumo -> validation of bearish Kumo breakout - Heikin Ashi is bearish, haDelta/SMA3 cross down below zero line - EWO is bearish Targets (in line with weekly supp/resistance levels): 9,00 or 8,80 Strategy: Hold shorts.
Short
by Kumowizard
Trigger fingerThe Big Lagging Ccy in G10 may finally catch up strength against EUR! ... I hope... as I've called it 3 times already recently :-) Instead of weekly where we still see bullish consolidation, I put on the Monthly: - Clear pull back signal is setting up in Heikin Ashi candles: 2 inside body candles with lower highs, and the second one is close to a doji. - EWO also reached an extreme high, while candle peaks are lower. -Longer term Ichimoku supp/res is ard 8,90 (monthly Kijun Sen) Daily: - we have seen volatile zig-zag within/around Kumo, but price could not break and stay above Kijun Sen since October! - Heikin Ashi turns bearish again, Price attempts a bearish Kumo breakout, trendbreak and also break of horizontal key support. If it stays below 9,22-9,25, selling can quickly accelerate down to 9,00 - EWO is at zero: no trend wave Again, it looks like a sell, but this ccy is really a tricky one. As one of my friends always say: "I hate NOK, because it trades like EM, just without any positive carry!" ...Of course he still trades it sometimes :-)
Short
by Kumowizard
3
Norges on hold. Get ready to enter shortsNOK has been lagging too much. While all majors got stronger against EUR since Drgahi's last action, NOK rather got stuck. This ccy has been the weakest among G10 for the last 1,5 years. Norges Bank left key rate unchanged at 0,75 % today. Some bulls who believed in surprise cut, and dovish statement had started to unwind their longs already, but key reversal area is still a bit lower. Weekly: - Ichimoku bullish, trend bullish. - as goes the Oil. However Price has been below Tenkan Sen (9 weeks avg) for last 4 weeks. - Heikin Ashi: some early warning in haDelta + candle has a lower high. - Lower key levels are: 9,20 / 9,00 / 8,80+ Daily: - Ichimoku is neutal. Price has failed to break back above Kumo and Kijun sen 5 times! - Bullish trendline is close to be tested ard 9,26. Kumo bottom at same level - Key area is clearly 9,20-26 on the daily too. A break below this could accelerate selling. - Heikin Ashi shows serious undecision: doji like candles in a row: Buls always try to push it higher then they fail. Today candle has very long wicks, with candle body mid at equilibrum of 9,35. haDelta has a bearish warning! I sold some small after Norges decision this morning. Bigger size I would do only below 9,26 as we still need more confirmation signals!
Short
by Kumowizard