EURNOK trade ideas
EURNOK-SELL strategy Daily chartThe pair had a very good run up, and the current pattern resembles a 'falls bull flag'. This suggests we may see a reasonable pullback, and the stochastic is on the high side as well, but still positive.
Strategy SELL @ 11.8350-11.8650 and place SL @ 11.9150 (financial stop) and take profit @ 11.6550 for now.
EURNOK One of the best long-term sellsThe EURNOK pair has topped on the long-term having made a Cycle peak on the week of May 29 2023. So far however, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has (nearly) held twice as Support, but both rebounds failed to cross above the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
This price action is very similar to the previous Cycle peak of March 2020, leading to a 1W MA50 rebound that again failed to break above the 0.618 Fibonacci. The direct consequence was a Channel Down to the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and the -0.382 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, we will sell as long as the price is below the 0.618 Fib and target 10.9000, a projected contact with the 1W MA100 (green trend-line).
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EURNOK to start impulse move of downtrendEURNOK was observed to be undergoing corrective move during downtrend on 1H timeframe. However it has been noticed to retrace from 38.2%fib and is likely to continue impulse move of downtrend. No divergence on RSI has been observed. An instant sell order has been placed on retracement from 38.2%fib ; SL and TP have been proportionately marked on chart.
EUR/NOK Looks bearishIt is loosing its bullish strength and starts to look a little weak. EUR/NOK looks to be in a long term downtrend on the 4hr timeframe, which further confluence the heavy resistance it has right above. This also gives a clear area of demand waiting for it below to catch up a healthy trend.
Short EURNOK huge dropMarket Talk Roundup: Norges Bank Raises Rates, Another Rise in September Is Likely
Aug 17, 202311:59 GMT+1
Norges Bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4% on Thursday, as expected, and flagged the likelihood of another rise next month given inflation remains high. It refrained from further guidance, however, leaving the possibility that September could mark the central bank's final rate increase. The Norwegian krone rises following the announcement. The following is a selection of analyst comments.
Norges Bank Poised For One Last Hike, Krone Could Strengthen From Here
1049 GMT - Norway's central bank is poised for one final rate increase in September, and with other major central banks either at or close to their peak for policy rates, the impetus to raise rates further is fading, ING's James Smith and Francesco Pesole say in a note. The last set of forecasts saw the policy rate peaking at 4.25% later this year and there's little reason to doubt that, they say. The krone is moderately stronger today and a period of stabilisation in risk sentiment could dramatically increase the currency's attractiveness, with ING anticipating a broad-based rally in the krone before year-end. The bank expects the 11.00 level in EUR/NOK to be tested before year-end. EUR/NOK trades at 11.5145, down 0.2% on the day. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)
Norges Bank Versus ECB Divergence Seen Supporting Krone
1030 GMT - The Norwegian krone could be set to rise as Norges Bank is likely to raise interest rates further after Thursday's 25 basis-point increase to 4.0%, especially as eurozone interest rates look closer to peaking, Nick Rees, FX market analyst at Monex Europe, says in a note. "With the European Central Bank likely at the end of policy tightening and the Norgesbank set to keep on going, we expect a stronger krone as our base case all else being equal, especially given an explicit signal for further policy tightening to come," he says in a note. He adds that slowing global growth, FX purchases and oil prices could all play a role in driving EUR/NOK. EUR/NOK falls 0.2% to
EURNOK: Ascending Broadening Wedge Potential Partial RiseWe have a potential Partial Rise at a 61.8% Retrace within an Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern on the EURUSD with a Bearish PPO Confirmation Arrow.
If we hit the Demand Line from here, it is very likely it will break down and hit the Measured Move Target down at 7.22