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Euro / Norwegian Krone

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EURNOK trade ideas

Brent, CPI, Norges, 9,60 refused -> GOTO 9,35- Brent Oil is still under heavy selling pressure. This and previous general Euro buying caused a sharp spike from 9,20 to 9,60 in EURNOK. - However NOK Bears could not push the price above 9,58-9,60 key resistance since 8/Dec. Seven failed attempts. - Norwegian CPI last week was higher than expected despite falling oil prices. - Market believed in a Norges Bank rate cut with 50-50 chance, but Norges kept its benchmar on hold at 0,75 %. For me it was not surprising at all, given the fact ECB was less dovish and the above mentioned CPI number. Tech: - Ichimoku bullish biased, but bullish Kumo breakout missed textbook confirmation, as price did not make a higher high above 9,60 prev resistance. - The pair faced heavy selling after Norges decision today. Price is down -1,4 % as bulls unwinding positions. Price reaching Tenkan Sen. We had 5 candles showing undecision and choppy trading in a wide range of 9,43-9,59. Today Heikin-Ashi candle has huge upper and lower wicks again, but this time a red body! haDelta/SMA3 however may dip below zero line. -> Turning bearish! - Pull back on its way, with possible initial tgt to 9,30-9,35. If you want to enter swing short, do not rush, as this G10 pair has been trading like a wild EM cross! Try to catch spikes to 9,48-9,52.
Short
by Kumowizard
#EURNOK Bearish Kumo breakout confirmed by Chikou SpanBearish momentum may accelerate finally. Of course a lot depends on OPEC meeting. Obviously a cut in Oil production would cause spike in Brent price and would make NOK even more attractive. Daily update: - Price below Kumo Tenkan and Kijun (bearish) - Tenkan/Kijun is strong bearsih - Chikou Span bearish cross below past Kumo -> validation of bearish Kumo breakout - Heikin Ashi is bearish, haDelta/SMA3 cross down below zero line - EWO is bearish Targets (in line with weekly supp/resistance levels): 9,00 or 8,80 Strategy: Hold shorts.
Short
by Kumowizard
Trigger fingerThe Big Lagging Ccy in G10 may finally catch up strength against EUR! ... I hope... as I've called it 3 times already recently :-) Instead of weekly where we still see bullish consolidation, I put on the Monthly: - Clear pull back signal is setting up in Heikin Ashi candles: 2 inside body candles with lower highs, and the second one is close to a doji. - EWO also reached an extreme high, while candle peaks are lower. -Longer term Ichimoku supp/res is ard 8,90 (monthly Kijun Sen) Daily: - we have seen volatile zig-zag within/around Kumo, but price could not break and stay above Kijun Sen since October! - Heikin Ashi turns bearish again, Price attempts a bearish Kumo breakout, trendbreak and also break of horizontal key support. If it stays below 9,22-9,25, selling can quickly accelerate down to 9,00 - EWO is at zero: no trend wave Again, it looks like a sell, but this ccy is really a tricky one. As one of my friends always say: "I hate NOK, because it trades like EM, just without any positive carry!" ...Of course he still trades it sometimes :-)
Short
by Kumowizard
3
Norges on hold. Get ready to enter shortsNOK has been lagging too much. While all majors got stronger against EUR since Drgahi's last action, NOK rather got stuck. This ccy has been the weakest among G10 for the last 1,5 years. Norges Bank left key rate unchanged at 0,75 % today. Some bulls who believed in surprise cut, and dovish statement had started to unwind their longs already, but key reversal area is still a bit lower. Weekly: - Ichimoku bullish, trend bullish. - as goes the Oil. However Price has been below Tenkan Sen (9 weeks avg) for last 4 weeks. - Heikin Ashi: some early warning in haDelta + candle has a lower high. - Lower key levels are: 9,20 / 9,00 / 8,80+ Daily: - Ichimoku is neutal. Price has failed to break back above Kumo and Kijun sen 5 times! - Bullish trendline is close to be tested ard 9,26. Kumo bottom at same level - Key area is clearly 9,20-26 on the daily too. A break below this could accelerate selling. - Heikin Ashi shows serious undecision: doji like candles in a row: Buls always try to push it higher then they fail. Today candle has very long wicks, with candle body mid at equilibrum of 9,35. haDelta has a bearish warning! I sold some small after Norges decision this morning. Bigger size I would do only below 9,26 as we still need more confirmation signals!
Short
by Kumowizard
EURNOK-expecting a decline after a 0.61 pullbackMy last attemp to short this pair failed. I still think a big decline should follow on this pair. I want to trade this pair long-term. We can see a big correction (AB=CD pattern) finished before. After that a possible zigzgag is forming, first leg followed by a 0.61 fib pullback. Fundamentals also support this bias: more EUR weakness expected due to possible extended QE. NOK economy is based mainly on oil exports and my bias is that oil should start a rally soon. Regards. *****************DISCLAMER******************************************************************** Always do your own analysis before opening a trade. Any respectful and constructive ideas are welcome (agree or disagree). Follow me on Twitter for updates: @fxtrader2000
Short
by FullTimeTrader
EURNOK-could continue a long term declineJust like the EURCAD and EURAUD, i think this pair reached a top and a log term decline is starting. More than that, this pair is extremely overbought, we can see it on monthly chart. The EURCAD and EURAUD are already gone. We can still trade this pair using this setup. Right now price is consolidating forming a nice inverted pennant/flag. My prefered scenario is that price will break to the downside and will reach the projected pennant target. Just in case a place another two targets following my money management system. A conservative entry would be to place sell stop orders below the level shown on chart. This depends on each trader, i prefer to enter now to have a better R/R ratio. Best regards. *****************DISCLAMER******************************************************************** Always do your own analysis before opening a trade. Any respectful and constructive ideas are welcome (agree or disagree). Follow me on Twitter for updates: @fxtrader2000
Short
by FullTimeTrader
1
Nice correction, maybe reversal later, but watch out haDelta!Weekly: - Ichimoku setup is still bullish with lower support around 9,00 and 8,80. - Heikin Ashi shows a correction has started this week. This correction may extend to 9,00 +/- area in coming weeks Daily: - Looks like a trend break. Also looks like a possible bearish reversal is taking place and firming BUT... - ... but Ichimoku setup is still just neutral, with Price in the Kumo. Even if Price makes an initial attempt to break lower, that will be likely followed by a spike back to Kumo. Or the other case is that the momentum starts to slow down a bit here ard 9,10-9,20 area, we see a pull back up to 9,30-9,40 supp/res, then on next try it breaks below 9,15 and tgts 9,00. - Watch out for smoothed haDelta! It has made an extreme low., and it has a negative divergence compared to price. This strong bearish momentum is not sustainable short term. Maybe reduce, hedge some of your counter shorts, or sell short dated (2 weeks) covered puts @ 9,00 or 9,05 strike to pick up some extra premium. I think most likely we will see some consolidation here ard 100 day WMA and Kumo. ether it happens with a dip and spike back, or with a correction up and a break down later is a question, but maybe second scenario has higher probability gvn haDelta location. Anyway, I'd keep some shorts, or would sell on spikes still. So my bias is still counter bearish, but there are some signals to be careful here with the momentum.
by Kumowizard
Norges Bank loves the ccy war! I like counter short.Well, the last central bank who I thought would not lose its mind seems to join global idiotism, thinking that through FX channel their problems will be solved or at least would soften! Hey helloooo Gentlemen! Your ccy has been the weakest among G10 for abt 1,5 years now! Did this relative weakness solve any part of your problem? Nope. So why do they think more FX weakness would help their economy??? The reason why Norway is "sufferring" a bit of backdrop is the structure of their real economy. They have two kind of products: Salmon (maybe less important) and Brent Oil.... so basically they can weaken their ccy to anywhere, if no one will buy Oil and other machinery products used in oil industry (by oil producers, distributors, etc.), there will be no GDP growth, no inflation, etc. So the thing is, they should do intervention in Oil market rather than in FX :-) Anyway... I got stopped out of my EURNOK shorts on the day of rate decision, but somehow I still like Norway. After all it is still AAA rated with no Debt (at least QE can't be an option there later), and they still have their savings in their national oil fund. Technicals Daily: - Bullish trend resumed with heavy buying after rate cut. Ichimoku setup is bullish. Supports are 9,30 and 9,15. - Heikin Ashi picture is still bullish, but after haDelta has just printed an extreme high (and started to pull back lower since then -> momentum slows a bit), a consolidation or correction should soon happen. 4H: - Bullish Ichimoku setup, but Price got too quickly too far above its short term equilibrium, and it is currently still too far above Kijun Sen!!! Kijun and Kumo should attract price back. - Heikin Ashi candles are still green, but watch out for the massive negative divergence in haDelta! Smoothed haDelta is already back to zero, while price has not yet pulled back even a little bit! - I think if we see a reversal candle and Price dips below Tenkan Sen, we can see a quick correction down to 9,45 +/-. SAR already hit: bulls should start to reduce / exit longs. I like to have some counter short again.
Short
by Kumowizard
2
Is the bullish trend close to end?Weekly: - BullishIchimoku setup, but Price got far above the 9,00 equilibrium level, should retest Kumo - Lower supports are: 9,15 (Tenkan Sen), 9,00 (Kumo and Kijun Sen), 8,60-8,70 area as strongest trend support - Heikin Ashi candle this week seems ti print an inside body and no higher high. haDelta crosses below SMA3.Bullish momentum slowed as Price could not close above 9,40-9,50 resistance area for second week. Daily: - Ichimoku setup is bullish, but as 5th Elliot wave might have been completed, so we have to watch 9,20 closely! We have Kjiun Sen and trend support there. If those break now, or later in A-B-C wave, that will be a beginning of a bearish move. - Heikin Ashi signal is bearish. Please note that haDelta/SMA3 failed to move back above zero line, they made a bearish cross below. This suggests more possible bearish bias ahead. - It still may be just a Kijun Sen retest, and Price can go up again, but it will be very important to see if it makes a higher high from here or not. I slowly started to increase my strategic NOK exposure again. No rush, don't chase, play it slowly according to your system reuirements (entry signal, stop, position size) You can also check historical charts for GBPNOK and NOKSEK. Really interesting, and makes me question if NOK really has to be this "cheap" compared to all other G10?
Short
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Possible buy signal at daily Kijun Sen- Ichimoku setup is bullish, Price retested Kijun Sen, which acted bullish support for last two days - Possible Heikin Ashi buy-reversal signal at support - Brent Oil is still under selling pressure - Looking at 4H: 100 WMA acted as strong supp/res. In case Price breaks above 9,00, that will trigger further buying, and Ichimoku setup would turn to bullish again on the lower timeframe too. I enterred long today at 8,9385, with initial tgt 9,20, stop below 8,87
Long
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Mixed a bit, but bullish momentum dropsWeekly: Attention! - Ichimoku setup is bearish, with supports at 8,80+ and 9,00 - Heikin Ashi already signalled loss of momentum last week: inside candle body with no higher high and both candle high and close below the weekly Kijun Sen. We may have further sideaway or a bearish resumption this week, watch if haDelta comes back below zero. Daily: - Ichimoku is rather bullish on the daily, but Price failed to move above 8,80-8,84 resistance. Bullish bias dropped. - Heikin Ashi signal has been mixed fir a while. Price may drift lower towards 8,60 (weekly Tenkan Sen and Daily Kumo). For real bearish reversal 8,60 has to be broken first, but the real long term trend support is ard 8,40-8,45.
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - What to do when momentum disappears?Weekly: - Ichimoku setup is very hard to read still, because the rare spike in dec/2014 made some distorsions of the indicator. I'd say it is kind of neutral, as Price is at the equilibrium measured from datas 26 weeks ago, and Chikou Span hit Price candles. - It's been 6 weeks now since EURNOK tries to break the major uptrend line and the key supp/res zone of 8,32-8,38, but looking at the Heikin Ashi candles we can see the bodies come smaller each after, and there is clearly no decisive lower low (all lower wicks got blocked ard 8,30+). Weekly haDelta is flat. For me this looks like a loss of possible bearish momentum. Daily: - Ichimoku setup is turning to neutral from bearish: Chikou Span hits price candles, Tenkan is almost crosses up Kijun (that would be a weak bullish cross) - Heikin Ashi signal is turning to bullish, we need to see if haDelta/SMA3 can stuck finally above zero line. - The descending triangle is a bit subjective. We can draw it either from the blow off top, in that case it is already broken, but if we look at the less steep one, that is still in play. I had been short for long time, but now I just feel EURNOK completely lost its bearish momentum, it's just moving sideaway, which is annoying a bit. So I decided to cut most of my short. It may be a good sell higher, or lower if finally breaks 8,32, but here and now it is neutral.
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Make it or break it. Hesitation at the crossroadsWell, this week or the next we should see the fate of NOK. Actually I think this week Norges Bank will determine the fate of their ccy. EURNOK got very close to a major inflection point. A make it or break it time is ahead of the pair. Weekly: - Price has reached a multiple support/resistance zone: bullish trendline, Kumo, 100 WMA, and horizontal key supp/res area is below the Price. Chikou Span hits past candles. This is a very strong resistance now, so if by any reason Price breaks it finally, the selling will be dramatic. - Heikin Ashi candles: last week candle is interesting as it had a lower wick, but finally an inside body. This means by the end of last week the selling pressure has eased a lot. Therefor haDelta/SMA3 crossed up (still below zero line). This week's candle has very little information so far. Daily: - Price started some wider range consolidation below bearish supports. It is still trading below Kijun Sen after it has tested the 26 days average twice. It looks like in short term the 9,53-9,57 area is a strong support, but 8,35-8,40 is also a strong resistance (not surprsing looking at the weekly chart's crossroads there) - Heikin Ashi signal right now suggests Price will try to dip again a bit, but for a sustainable bearish move it should have a stronger bearish momentum. The thing is simple now. Based on the daily chart setup, it is better risk reward to sell the range top and size shorts up a bit below 8,43, then trail your stops. It is a good strategy unless Norges Bank joins the global CB idiotism and starts to cut base rate, as in that case EURNOK would spike up above 8,55 and 8,61, which would be a bullish reversal for the pair. Please note that 8,61 is also the weekly Tenkan Sen, so that level would trigger a lot of buying. If Norges Bank realises what European bond investors have already started to realise (that is the pricing out of the global long term deflation fears and trades), then they will not be idiot to act behind the curve and they will leave the base rate unchanged.
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Sell again, stay with the trend!Weekly: - Price is reaching an extremely important zone 8,35-8,38. If Price ever breaks below this zone, the long term picture would change to strategic bearish - Ichimoku setup right now is neutral, with bearish bias. Daily: - Ichimoku setup is bearish, all average lines point down, Chikou Span is in open space - Price retested 8,50-8,55 bearish support zone. Given that previously this area acted as strong resistance, now we should assume it will be a strong support. - Heikin Ashi candle on Friday was a doji with haDelta crossing back below its SMA3. That was an early signal about the possible end of the pull back. Today HA cabdle is red, so from now we have to assume a bearish move will continue from here. Increase your short exposure again! I did it already.
Short
by Kumowizard