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EURNOK trade ideas

EURNOK - Sell more, it will likely break downAs I wrote in my other post (linked below) I rather buy NOK (the ccy of the only real AAA rated country) vs the EUR at current levels, than adding or re-enterring USD longs for example. Technical picture: Daily: Yesterday we had Kijun Sen retest with a small body red hanging candle. Today we have a massive bearish candle so far. Break of the long term daily and also weekly trend? At least penetrated. We will also have a STRONG Bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross today. Conservative Ichimoku traders normally sell the closing at this signal. Chikou Span is again below price candles and as soon as the long awaited 8,10 key level goes, we'll have only "three" things left to do: Sell more / Sit and wait / Sell more on spikes staying with the trend 4 Hrs: Honestly I should have posted this analyses a lot earlier, as I saw the opportunity already yesterday, ok, confirmation came this morning. We had basically a retest to the 100 WMA and to the thick Kumo, which together were likely a good support for bears. The break back below 8,17 today was a confirmation signal. Now DMI is bearish with increasing ADX. Try to sell any pull backs to ard 8,15.
Short
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Price reached equilibrium at KumoSince my last post the counter trend idea worked well. Now it's time to start think about taking profit on counter longs and consider re-enterring shorts again. Daily: Price reached a longer term equilibrium level ard 8,30, it is right at the Kumo, which we have to assume as resistance for further bullish moves. Note that the Kumo is not thick, so we can not exclude a spike above. DMI is bullish, but with no real ADX pickup. MACD is bullish, but seems histogram starts decreasing again. Slow Stoch is overbought and turning down. Tenkan and Kijun stay together below the price with almost a weak bullish cross. The future cloud is overshades Price but cloud components still point down. Chikou is at Price candles. All in all from here the possibility of a dip to 8,20 is higher than the chance for any further bullish gains. 4 Hrs: Counter trend intact, but ADX reached above 60, with DMI lines not widenning further. Lower supports are: 8,2470, and most importantly 8,2050. The second support is in line with daily Tenkan and Kijun Sen, so for short term that has to be considered as a stronger key level. Trade idea: Short 0,5 or may 1 trade unit in 8,2900-8,3000 range. Initial tgt is 8,2050. Initial stop is 8,3375. In case Price breaks below the importnt 8,20 again, the position will have to be sized up massively, as in that case price action may get even more bearish, and with a final break of the long term trendline and horizontal support ard 8,10 a long lasting bearish move can develop. p.s.: Norges Bank rate setting meeting is due tomorrow, comments will cause sharp move in Price. Of course it can be in any direction, that's why we always use a stop :-). Recent macro figures from Norway have been improving, with most of the time better than expected numbers published. Fundamentally I think NOK is the most undervalued G10 currency, but as usual, technicals matter first.
Short
by Kumowizard
3
EURNOK - In a corrective periodNorway's CPI published today was in line with mkt expectations at 2,1 % YoY (although core CPI MoM was a bit lower) Daily: As I have written in my previous post the major bullish trendline and horizontal resistance held well for now and Price started to correct towards Kijun Sen. MACD and Slow Stoch are both Bullish now, but the Ichimoku setup is bearish. However for a major bearish trend acceleration this 8,0940 - 8,1000 resistance zone. Supports are 8,2550 (Kijun Sen) and 8,3200 (Senkou B) equilibrium. 4 Hrs: This "bullish" counter trend (correction) may develop a bit further. On this lower time frame it is a Buy now. Strategy: As for me always the higher time frame matters more, I'd rather look for sell signals. We can wait for a Slow Stoch bearish cross from overbought territory, after Price also reached some higher support level, or look for the next bearish Kumo break on 4 Hrs. The other option is to sell the daily resistance break. Whichever comes first. But for now it looks like we'll still have quite a few days until we get any of these possible sell signals. Watch and wait!
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Consolidation or correction starts.Daily: There is a strategic bearish Ichimoku setup, which means we will have to look for sell on spikes. However it seems EUR is recovering a bit on all crosses, so likely the 8,0940 trend and horizontal support will hold for now on EURNOK too. MACD lines closed in, may give a bullish signal on next spike. Slow Stoch has been oversold now for some time. 4 Hrs: Bearish momentum lost now on DMI-ADX. rice started to consolidate. 8,1620 is upper support. Watch if the trendline breaks. Now we'll have equal chance for a break up or for a further break down after some consolidation. Strategy: Counter trend trade not yet recommended until price is below 8,1650 and until we see some Ichimoku buy signals on this time frame, but it is time to fully take profit on shorts. Look for sell signals to re-enter short positions either above 8,20 (e.g. at daily Kijun Sen retest) or in case of the trendline break, which one comes earlier.
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Watch for a possible swing Long entryDaily: Ichimoku likely started to develop a medium to long term strategic short bias, but as I wrote in my last post, by now Price has reached a key support/resistance zone, and also the longer term bullish trendline is close. MACD and Slow Stoch turning up, so it's not impossible that we see some kind of pull back to 8,2350 - 8,2700 levels. 4 Hrs: Consolidation below Kumo. DMI zig-zag, ADX dropping, so the bearish momentum is lost for now. Tenkan and Kijun are flat, Chikou Span hit Price candles. The trendline matches the 100 WMA and the Kumo bottom. Slow Stoch rather a buy with positive divergence to flat price action. Key level to enter counter trend long (and final stop for those who are still short) is 8,1865. p.s.: the more pairs I look at against the EUR, the most I have the feeling that we will see some EUR recovery during next week. Not sure, but chance is increasing.
Long
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Enters key support zone close to bullish trendlineIn the long run I am rather bearish for EURNOK, I think NOK will perform well against EUR later this year and likely next year too. I've been short for about three weeks now, but as it's getting oversold and enterring a key support zone, also getting close to long term trend line, it is time to take profit. (anyway, my short Put options have maturity this week, so most of my positions will be closed through options excersise). Hopefully we'll have better short entry levels higher again. Daily: Bearish Ichimoku setup is still valid, ADX is climbing, so long term bearish bias will remain. However Price reaches 8,0950 - 8,1450 support zone, while Slow Stoch has been oversold for some time now. MACD histogram rising a bit too, but not yet any sign of a reversal there. Maybe we can expect some sideaway consolidation here (similar to May-June pattern), later we'll see if it suddenly breaks lower or corrects higher. In both cases I will look to re-sell this pair. 4 Hrs: Not much comment - as you see here again, Ichimoku is one of the most powerful tools for trend followers. While all Ichimoku components are still clearly bearish, ADX is extremely high, which means this Bear has to have some rest. Will it happen with a sideaway consolidation, or maybe with a small counter trend, I don't know of course. We have to watch it carefully.
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Swing short. Will it keep trading range, or will break?I opened some shorts today, based on my last post (pls see linke below) and on today's 4 Hrs px action. Maybe I did a bit too early, but gvn the daily Kumo, I had to pull the trigger to get reasonable expected risk-reward ratio. Anyway, it looks like we may see a further consolidation. Daily: Not much change since my last post. Small daily hammers following each other with touch lower closes. Bulls seem to be trying, but they fail each they. Chikou Spn back below Price candles. This can develope to a bigger selloff. Maybe even below 1,3050 Major Key Support? Hmmm... let's just not predict it too early. Just a thought. What we see now is still just a range trading. If it breaks lower, then it will, if not, then the range will stay. 4 Hrs: weak Tenkan/Kijun Sell signal, Price couldn't move back above Kijun Sen twice. Price ticking below Kumo, but we still have the horizontal Key level ard 8,37 to be cleared. Also ADX is still too low. In fact this is still just a sideaway, with some selling pressure. But there's the chance it can accelerate later.
Short
by Kumowizard
2
EURNOK - Sideaway with short bias nowDaily: Since the huge pin bar Price corrected down to Kijun Sen, then again up to Kijun Sen. Last two days closings were both hanging man, rejecting the Key Resistance at Kijun. Slow Stoch gives a sell signal, with negative divergence to Price as well. I expect this cross to come down into the Kumo this week. Later it will deoend a lot on ECB policy. Fundamental adventages are on NOK side ag. EUR. I am holding some strategic shorts already, with selling Puts on it whenever it becomes oversold in the range. I believe at some point later this year we'll see a bearish Kumo break again and the bearish trend will resume.
Short
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - My personal fav.I stumbled upon EURNOK over some chance discussions with some members here couple of weeks ago. I took on a short position back then and ever since I kept adding to my positions. This pair also gives +ve rollovers for shorts. This is the weekly chart, which validates the short positions. A descending triangle and RSI divergence on the weekly charts. I don't think its too late to get in on this pair. Today Norges bank had its MPC and it kept interest rates unchanged. There is a bit of recovery, despite being slow. Eurozone... I don't have to say much. Perhaps today's ECB press conference will give clues. Look for selling opportunities on this pair.
Short
by justatrader
EURNOK - Trend reversal in progress. Sell 8,30-8,31 retracementDespite NOK used to be one of my favourite ccys, I have not been paying too much attention to it recently. It was a mistake. I missed this sell setup and short entry two days ago, even though it was so obvious. EUR already sold off on all crosses, except this one. The setup was there, I even realised it in the morning, I just hesitated too much to enter the OCO Sell orders, since I had enough shorts on EURUSD and EURCAD. I thought the break would happen only later during the day and would not be so violant. But maybe still not too late to catch something here next week! Daily: Price has been trading below the Kumo, perfectly retested it, followed by rejection. Tenkan/Kijun is about to give us a strong sell signal again. DMI crossed bearish, but ADX is still low. If price breaks lower through 8,22-8,20, then both 8,50 double top and the daily trend reversal will be absolutely confirmed, and we will see a longer bearish trend. 4 Hrs: Obviously massive bearish, but Slow Stoch is oversold. I hope this will bring some pullback to 8,29-8,31 retracement Zone, where we could sell this cross with a good risk reward. If I enter, I will consider this trade as a long term strategic short. I will have no intention to play swing trades on it, just keep it as a hedge to my portfolios EUR exposure, until the trend will be down. The only thing I will do from time to time, that in case daily Slow Stoch gets into oversold zone and price meets some kind of resistence level, I will write out short dated (1 or 2 weeks) covered Put options.
Short
by Kumowizard