DIA trade ideas
$DIA CALMA StratReason for buying this stock:
Entry:
1. Candle is above ALMA
2. CCI Breaks 100
Exit:
1. Sell when happy
2. Candle is below ALMA
Not a financial advice. TAYOR. DYOR
DIA/DJIA/YM - is the Dow ready to drop? Or just lagging?With the SP500, Nasdaq, and Russell each at all-time highs as of Friday's close, you would think the Dow would be right there with them; but it isn't. On its own, this doesn't necessarily foreshadow lower prices. However, as we add to the story there may be a little more going on with the Dow. Taken from the 2009 low around $65 (not coincidentally, the beginning of QE infinity from the Fed), we see a pretty clear trend channel (best seen on the 1W chart connecting Mar 09 low to Oct 2011 low, Aug 2015 lows, and Jan 2018 highs); within this channel, the Dow has been seemingly stalled out up at the top for around a month (even longer if you consider the belabored move after the blast off in all assets after the election in early Nov 2020). After a sharp move down a week ago (first week of Feb), we saw a strong move back up last week to reverse the selling. What stands out about this move is the lack of volume, the Dow popped last week on half the volume from the selling we witnessed the week before. Now, this certainly points to the ease of movement but it also suggests a lack of conviction. Breaking out to all-time highs on a lack of volume is not bullish; it isn't sustainable. This look is a lot more clear on the 1D chart, especially the narrow range bar printed on Friday. Not only was Friday's range the smallest of last week's move but it was also on the least amount of volume. Equally important, the Dow tried higher price and again failed to register a break and hold of the highs from 1/7 and 1/21 and closed near the lows of the day.
All this being said, given the strength in seemingly every asset class amongst the backdrop of easy money and 0% interest rates (or negative rates), it is damn hard to short the Dow (or anything). But, there is definitely some weakness here that will undoubtedly show itself in the coming weeks. Looking for continued weakness here before establishing a position but its on the radar.
DIA Price LevelsThe great GME crash. Hedge funds forced to sell winners and crash the market to bail out their looser.
Could go as low as 10% down. Keeping a close eye on price action near historic levels and put walls.
How Much More Can It Go DOW?I plotted some ranges and timeframes to get a better understanding how, in a worst-case scenario if history were to repeat itself exactly, when and how much we would tumble and fall.
Firstly, it showed that we could potentially go up as high as 320ish before the waterfall.
Secondly, the first drop, if like the March waterfall, could hit as low as 253ish.
Obviously history is unlikely to repeat itself exactly, but this seems like a very plausible outcome to me. Perhaps the fall will not be as large because it is more expected this time, but I do think we, as humans, run in cycles.
And like a washing machine running a load, our buzzer is going to go off.
-FIB
Out of the Realm of Possibility DOWApparently standard deviation means nothing to the markets right now. Even 99.5% probability has .5% of possibility in it.
We are well out of the range of normal, whatever that means, as I attempt to illustrate in this linear regression model.
Perhaps we have another month before the disaster, but based on the significantly larger increase in price than the preceding dive in March, timing may be sooner as a function of it being relative to magnitude.
Only time will tell.
Low Risk Weekly DIA Credit Spread (5% gain on capital invested)I'm looking to enter a Put Credit Spread on DIA with the goal of collecting $5-$6 worth of credit per contact with a $1.5 wide spread. I'll be holding till DOE with the intention of growing capital invested by a minimum of 5% for the week.
-Current price is: $308
-Credit spread sell strike: $290
-Current price to sell strick: 6.2%
-Is price trading above 50 day SMA?: Yes
-Is price trading above 200 day SMA?: Yes
-Percent OTM if held to DOE upon entering, is: 92% - 94% of being OTM if held to DOE
-Technical analysis: DIA is trading above 50 and 200 day SMA which signals that we are in an uptrend. Our sell strick has been placed below .382 (292.5) fib retracement level. This price zone has held as support in the past I'm looking for it to hold again this week.
Let me know what you think. Have a nice day.
$DIA due for leg down to complete expanding triangle correction$DIA looks to be due to begin leg 4 down of an expanding triangle corrective pattern following a 5 wave impulse up from the March lows to August. Leg down should fill some gaps on the daily. Alternatively, if DIA breaks through the top of its channel, then we're in an extended 1st wave, and all bets are off. The channel has held since 2008, however, so I believe that count is less likely.
Symmetrical triangle, bearish wedge & uptrend channel VIXSymetrical triangle, bearish wedge & uptrend channel.
Volatility Rainbow [Nic]What is this
The volatility rainbow tracks divergences in a security and its volatility index. This can be used to identify periods of heightened implied (future) risk.
About Volatility
The volatility is calculated by looking at put / call ratios. When VIX goes up it means that puts are outpacing calls. This is a bearish signal.
About Correlation
When the security goes up while the VIX goes up, the divergence on the plot will increase and turn a color. This should be a warning.
Colors
RED - DIA
BLUE - SPX
GREEN - IWM
GOLD - GLD
YELLOW - QQQ
ORANGE - TLT
White- VVIX
DIA - RSI Bearish DivergenceChart says it all. Looking back to the beginning of the year we see the same set up. Market is due for a breather. Tertiary stocks going parabolic. Now is the time to protect long positions.
Forecasting H&SDowntrend due to covid from head. Uptrend due to right shoulders from vaccines implementation. Downtrend from there due to Blue Georgia upset. Let's see how this plays out. Have a safe holidays everyone.
You hate to see it - DIA cooling off?Industrials have been hotter than hot this year and you hate to see the Dow industrials of all things go down but, is this a temporary short here? A sharp correction might follow this big gasp up even if further rallying is eventually in the cards?
DIA: Ready to Fill the GapDow has shown recent bullishness however that might be coming to an end soon. We gapped up today over a low volume area but we have several confluent supports coming up in that zone including anchored vwap, moving averages and trendlines.
I do expect us to retrace and fill at least some of this gap, but we may go lower to test the vwap's and moving average supports.
On top of that, we also have our moving average delta indicator beginning to turn down which signals the momentum of a move or a possible reversal, in this case it looks like downward momentum is gaining.
Of course we could get news to send us higher but I have a lot of concerns with the gaps beneath us and the volume support. I am short term bearish on the dow because of those reasons but things could always change!
Ideally, the bulls need to gain control above the bottom wedge trendline for me to have bullish confidence.
AMEX:DIA
