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DIA trade ideas

The Dow - Crack allready!!!Global markets are getting more annoying with every day that passes. The conflict in Ukraine is not helping because it brings volatility to the markets, especially the European markets. Correlation between major global markets is very strong, and who ignores it and analyzes markets indiviadualy loses the big picture. Weekly charts show ascending triangles, but all markets are losing momentum with each rally. Yesterday's reaction after Yellen's speach was terrible, bringing confusion. Today, the exact opposite. Price rallied, and by the end of the day pros got prices lower. This happens all the time after big events, the first reaction is done by the amateurs, but after the pros come and close the day. Another false breakout over 16500, another divergence, with the Dow in front of the other indexes. The Russell leads the fall, followed by the Nasdaq. I keep saying this in my posts, because it is a very important warning signal. The rallies are getting weaker and weaker, shown on the chart using deviations from the moving averages. The MACD lines are still in a bearish divergence, with the histogram losing strength each time price rallies, and a bearish divergence on the Force Index. I am short the Nasdaq, because I figuered a position there will be more profitable than on the Dow, because of the bubble stocks included in the calculation of the Nasdaq.
AMEX:DIAShort
by vlad.adrian
2
DIA and XLB confirmed SHORT to test Bollinger Band and moreBlown 20 day moving average (shown) and important Algo lines on Weekly and daily charts (not shown) DIA and XLB are crowning... 3 points..on DAILY. often tops. MORE Market drop coming, but huge moves take a number of drops and pops as market churns, then,,, after a false run up... vicious down. See 2011. Based on the market fundamentals like QE free money and ridiculously low interest rates, that may not happen, but a test of 16K is coming and them a test of the 200 day MA at 15700ish.
AMEX:DIAShort
by stockSMASH
The Dow - Divergence analysis 2Please first check the tagged chart "The Dow - Divergence analysis". You can see there the reliability of all these bearish divergences. On this chart, only the latest divergences are labeled. I am short since Monday on the US stock market and major global markets, and now the weekly confirms my bearish bias, with a very ugly pattern. First of all, price formation. A double top formed with divergence on the MACD lines and Force Index (which includes volume!), and last week there was a retest of that double top, with a false breakout, with a gravestone doji. That's bearish enough for me, considering this is the weekly chart. The MACD shows three bearish divergences, one that includes the year end rally, and two for the double top. You can see a huge class A bearish divergence, which I believe didn't play out yet. There was a strong reaction two months ago, but not enough considering the size of the divergence. After another push, a class B bearish divergence formed with the double top. This is one of my favorite patterns, for reverseals or strong corrections, class A followed by a retest of that level with a class B. Furthermore, there is a huge bearish divergence on the MACD histogram. Look how little power the bulls had with this last rally. All these divergences for me point to a very bearish short term future. Let's take a look at Force Index, which works here cause we have volume. The double top came with a bearish divergence also on FI, and with this last rally there was no cross over zero. This points out how strong the bears really are. The level at which we find the Force Index today is the lowest since the start of 2013!!!! This shows bear power! The EMA wave shows value, and when price gets close to value, it's good to go with the trend. Right now there are no bullish signals, neither here, nor on the daily, so I will be looking for a further decline. Please look at the pattern described on the chart *!! which I think is very important. If we analyze candlesticks, last week there was a gravestone doji star, a very strong reverseal candle, especially on weekly charts. This week, a closing marubozu that broke local support. Support levels are labeled on the chart, and those are the levels to watch for the end of this correction. I am looking to add to my short using the daily chart.
AMEX:DIAShort
by vlad.adrian
6
Fibo Gann Elliot analysis 1 year forecast $SPY $QQQ $IWMMajor US indices moved higher over the past week after favorable employment and manufacturing data. Looking at technical indicators, I see the divergence between price and indicator which is a bearish sign. I will be watching for a number of economic indicators due out over the next days, including unemployment data on April 4th, FOMC minutes on April 9th, jobless claims on April 10th, and Producer Price Index (“PPI”) data due out on April 11th. Proprietary trader, google.com
AMEX:DIAShort
by Startrader
REPUBLISHING 2014 FORECAST UNTOUCHED WEEKLY DIA SPDR DOW 30 ETFThe market is still going along the general path of the forecast so far in the first quarter. The market held the key support level that I labeled as the green box. And the market is peaking at the general area where I have expected resistance. Technically, the forecast is going well. Fundamentally, not much has changed. Overall, the market is overcoming the negative news headlines from around the world. Corporations are simply profitable enough with the highest profit margins in history, but they are leveraging their collective balance sheet and buying back stock, which will inhibit economic growth long into the future. The recent tax rate hikes generally will keep a lid on any upside progress this year while at the same time money continues to "asset allocate" out of bonds and into risk assets. Real estate is benefitting from the flow of funds out of stocks and from the artificially low interest rates provided by the Fed's machinations. From what I have heard through the grape vine, people are using their margin accounts to buy real estate so that means the market is truly vulnerable on any price shock because there aren't as many stock certificates to sell by margin departments to reduce margin balances in the face of a market slide. So, the highest margin balances in history right now are what has me most concerned and gives me the expectation of lower prices for stocks going into year-end. The low level of Gold and Silver is an opportunity to buy, in my opinion. Gold and silver and commodities have been suffering from a variety of news in their bear market. The stock market is suffering from high energy prices also which will keep a lid on prices with a 3-6 month lag. To summarize: Bullish: Asset allocation out of bonds to stocks. Stocks still the only game in town. High profit margins at corporations. Stock buybacks (and Mergers & Acquisitions) are all supportive of prices. Bearish: High valuations leaves little room for error. Earnings are not spectacular. The economy is flat. High margin balances. Corporations leveraging and not investing in real assets. Low VIX signals complacency. The Fed easing off the money machine throttle. This is a good time to sell calls against the market for the balance of the year. Yes, low VIX and high prices are good times to sell calls (in the money) to take advantage of sideways to lower prices for the balance of the year. Regards, Tim 4/4/14 10:29AM EST
AMEX:DIA
by timwest
2
DIA possible bearish reversal at small Gartley patternThere is a small bearish Gartley Fib Pattern in the DIA that could present itself as a very unique selling opportunity during the remainder of this week. SOMETIMES very small bearish Gartley patterns nail very important final tops in markets and stocks. However, important confirmation needs to present itself in the form of price candlestick signals assuming we move up into the 164 zone. If we do get into 164 zone then look for candlestick price reversal signals. End of month, end of quarter 'window dressing' may create small upward bias into end of this week. So if all goes according to plan we should start to see a key bearish reversal from this small bearish Gartley late this week or early next week. Early next week is indicated to be a panic cycle week according to Marty Armstrong and the following weeks after next week are indicated to be high volatility. This small bearish Gartley pattern may be nailing a very unique top and shorting opportunity in 2014 !!!! but needs confirmation at the 164 zone of clear reversal !!!! The fly in the ointment with this type of potential pattern setup is that if the DIA exceeds the 164 with confidence on a closing basis, then the situation could turn in the exact opposite resolution (extreme upside market breakout and strength).
AMEX:DIAShort
by TomNewYork
SPDR DOW 30 ETF DIA IS BOTH AN UPTREND & DOWNTREND SPDR DOW 30 ETF DIA BOTH UPTREND & DOWNTREND Wednesday 3/19/2014 There are two trends in place since the market is above the 10-day mode at 161.50. The 10-day mode is now 13-days. Why? Because 3 more days have accumulated at the 161.50 level and now the market has disconnected from 161.50 by trading, on Tuesday, completely above the 13-day mode. If you currently have no position - You can go long here at 163.45 with a stop and reverse at 161.50 so that you go short at 161.50. If you are already short: The downtrend is also in place but today is the last day of the downtrend time. The market is also below the two-mode areas labeled above at 164 and 163.6-163.18. This is how a market "balances out" after a period of strong trending action. A market isn't always going to "trend" and allow us to pull endless cash out of it. Let's hope for more big trends but I am fine if there isn't one for awhile. Tim 10:36AM EST 3/19/2014
AMEX:DIA
by timwest
DOW JONES SPDR DIA DAILY FAILED UPTRENDThe downtrend from the January high met all normal "trending" characteristics and guidelines. The uptrend from the February low so far has failed the general trending guidelines and has failed to rally in price or in time that suggests that the market is NOT ACCUMULATED and rather is IN DISTRIBUTION at the current level. The 163.18 level is key resistance and only if the market can climb above this 163.57 level will the uptrend be re-confirmed. A healthy market will rally for 10 days from a 10-day accumulation. Time runs out today on the uptrend, which means that at the end of today if the market is below 163.18, it is wise to go short and place a stop above 165, while looking for a drop down to the 158 level (the last consolidation). Tim 3/17/2014 10:18AM EST 162.39 last
AMEX:DIAShort
by timwest
5
FORECAST FOR 2014 FOR DJIA (DIA)For those of you who know me from my previous posts - I have tried my best to draw the outline of the market going 6-12 months into the future. I have merely "cloned" my previous charts and you can see what those forecasts looked like on this chart. I realize it is a bit cluttered on the chart, but I think the relevant points are on here and you can review what I have said "untouched" from before. So, here it goes: 2014 Forecast: The market has not built enough time up here to sustain a long term rally. But with more time at lower levels then accumulation can develop and the bull market can continue. However, from current levels the market is not on sturdy ground. The market is stretched up at 165 and support is down at 149 and implies a downside risk of 10%. The time of the last consolidation was 12 weeks and we are in the 12th week of the rally. So, time has run out. Since the market has needed 20 weeks of accumulation before each previous rally, it is bearish to me that it only took 12 weeks in this latest accumulation. The factors driving the market until now have been clear (stock buybacks, earnings growth, Fed driven low interest rates, equity fund inflows), but we are ahead of rational long term valuations and I would not recommend committing new funds to this market. I am concerned about several areas: Corporate leverage is up. Valuations are stretched as stocks have been top performers. Margin buying is at record levels. Investors are optimistic again. Analysts seem unanimous in forecasting higher prices. Demographic trends are pointing down for several years, implying weak economic growth (See Harry Dent's newest book, just released this week). This is a great time to do the opposite of the analysts forecasting another 10%-15% gains and walk away instead. A great alternative will be picking individual stocks and getting back in when prices are lower. I'm happy to take the risk of avoiding any further upside to this market. For now, sit in cash and if you have knowledge about put and call options, you can utilize strategies to give away the upside (selling call options) return in exchange for protecting against a move to the downside (buying put options). Happy New Year to all and here is to a successful 2014 at TradingView! Cheers, Tim Jan 9, 2014 12:10PM EST
AMEX:DIAShort
by timwest
17
REVIEW OF 2013 FORECAST FOR THE DJIA by Tim WestOverall, this was a decent forecast of the primary movement of the market for 2013. The previous year's forecast was also decent and this brings me to 2014 and forcing myself to sit down and weigh out the overall landscape of supply and demand for equities, the levels of sentiment across the spectrum and weigh out which way I believe the market will move for the year. Cheers to a great 2013 and wishing you all another great year ahead for 2014. All the best, Tim 1/3/2014 @ 12:58PM EST
AMEX:DIA
by timwest
1